DISENTANGLING THE UKRAINE CRISIS IN SIX SCENARIOS
To really get to grips with the complex patchwork of possibilities involved with the current Ukraine crisis you would really require a flowchart. But let's take things one stage at a time to see if this over-complicated scenario becomes a little clearer.
What are the elements in play?
Ukraine wants entry to NATO.
NATO agreed that Ukraine would join at some point in the indefinite future.
Russia absolutely refuses the possibility that Ukraine should ever join NATO.
Ukraine wants Crimea back.
Ukraine wants the Donbass region back.
Ukraine says it will not implement the Minsk Agreement to give the Donbass special status.
The USA is supporting Ukraine
The UK is supporting Ukraine.
The EU nations support Ukraine.
The USA is creating bases across the EU.
Russia has demanded that NATO withdraw its forces back to the positions they held in the Nineties.
Ukraine wants the NordStream 2 pipeline never to open.
The USA wants the NordStream 2 pipeline never to open.
Germany needs the NordStream 2 pipeline to open so it can close its Nuclear Stations and Coal fields.
France, Italy and the rest of the EU need the NordStream 2 pipeline to open otherwise they run short of gas.
Russia and Belarus are conducting joint military exercises currently.
Belarus has a route to Kiev without needing to cross the Dnieper River.
Russia to reach Kiev by vehicular traffic would have a very long journey.
The USA says the troop placements of Russia and Belarusian indicate an invasion is imminent.
Ukraine says the troop placements of Russia are nothing new and Russia has a right to place its troops where it wishes within its borders.
Kiev initiates a significant attack on the autonomy-seeking republics of the Donbass.
Russia feels it cannot stand back and watch the carnage that it perceives is about to ensue.
Russia makes a limited incursion to persuade Ukrainian troops/militias to withdraw.
Russia withdraws issuing a statement that any further attacks by Kiev will be met with the same response.
The world's politicians and media linked to western states all cry foul simultaneously with the cry 'Russia Invaded Ukraine Again!'
A raft of economic sanctions are initiated targeting Russian banks, individuals and various economic, political and cultural institutions.
All western politicians put immense pressure on Germany to close the NordStream 2 project forever.
Kiev mounts no special attack on the Donbass republics but continues the usual tactics with nothing out of the ordinary from the usual.
Russia maintains its troops exactly where they are not adding or subtracting from their number.
The politicians and mainstream media of the West quieten down and the meme of an imminent 'Russian Invasion' slowly fades and eventually disappears.
Germany certifies NordStream 2 as good to go in mid-Summer.
Germany and France along with Italy pursue a route to restored relations with Russia and talks begin in earnest to put together a new security architecture for Europe with Russia very much included.
NATO remains silent on whether Ukraine will be accepted or not, maintaining an unchanged stance in other words.
Germany and France begin to exert real pressure for the first time on Kiev to implement its Minsk promises.
Russia, having given up all hope of persuading Ukraine and NATO that they should give up their association and finding no positive response to its need for security at its border, initiates a limited military action to secure the Donbass region.
The entire world throws up its hands in shock, horror and the strongest possible criticism of Russia.
Massive sanctions are applied at all possible levels in an attempt to punish Russia and make it withdraw from Ukraine.
NordStream 2 is immediately cancelled by Germany stating it will never operate as long as Russia occupies the Donbass.
Russia responds to this and the sanctions applied by the EU along with all other western partners as acts of war and immediately halts all supply of natural gas to Europe and diverts it instead to China.
China makes a statement of full support for Russia.
Russia and China sign a formal declaration as a military alliance where an attack on one is an attack on the other and this is made retrospective to include the attacks just initiated by the western allies.
No significant attack is made by Ukraine on the Donbass republics.
Russia makes no attack upon or invasion of Ukraine.
However, the political and media campaigns to keep the fear level of a 'Russian Invasion' continues and is heightened by false flag events or other means.
The USA maintains that the continued threat of a Russian invasion means Ukraine MUST be allowed to join NATO as a matter of urgency owing to the constant, persistent and growing threat to Ukraine by the presence of Russian and Belarusian troops on Ukraine's borders.
Ukraine is accepted into NATO.
Ukraine within weeks attacks either the Donbass republics or Crimea, perhaps with massive support from NATO.
Russia responds with the full force of its military.
The Ukraine forces are decimated and within their number a few NATO troops also lose their lives.
I. NATO backs off and negotiations come to a peace deal.
Ii. NATO doubles down on its actions against all Russian positions and troop formations.
ia. A frozen conflict with Ukraine and NATO results in Crimea remaining part of the Russian Federation.
ib. A wider conflagration grows whereby the forces of the West engage Russian forces and over time and mission creep a full scale world war is in progress.
Ukraine backs down in terms of rhetoric against Russia in coordination with the USA doing the same. Western mainstream media seeing the way geopolitical events are going does likewise.
Russia responds in reciprocal fashion.
The USA, UK, EU representatives along with individual representatives from Germany, France and Italy organise a congress where they and Russia and Ukraine are the primary attendees. All other nations potentially affected by the threat of war in Europe such as Poland Belarus, Baltic States as well as the Czech Republic, Slovakia and others are included.
A Europe-wide and indeed global security architecture is eventually agreed with a reaffirmation of the principles of non-interference and illegality of initiating attacks on sovereign nations without just cause and authorisation of a specific UN resolution.
Ukraine announces that it has suspended its application to join NATO and will not renew it at any further date.
Russia welcomes this decision and asks Georgia to make the same statement.
Georgia does so.
The USA recommends to NATO that it withdraw from all ex-Warsaw Pact nations it has entered since the verbal agreements made with Mikhail Gorbachev in the Nineties whereby NATO would not move an inch further east toward Russia's borders.
The new security architecture Russia has demanded is thrashed out in a series of meetings and one final conference, and is ultimately agreed.
Europe is restored to a much-welcomed congenial environment where threats no longer hang over the population.
Trade with Russia and China increase markedly along with cultural, sporting and many other areas of social and corporate contact.
The USA begins to concentrate on its problems at home, improving infrastructure and bringing its people together in harmony once more.
Britain struggles to achieve a similar economic base to that which it enjoyed while within the European Union.
The world sighs a breath of relief that the possibility of yet another world war has been avoided by politicians of all sides emphasising what they have in common, recognising what they might lose otherwise and deciding on compromises that deliver a peaceful world looking to the future.