IS THERE IMMINENT DANGER OF WAR IN THE DONBASS?

The situation in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine appears to be reaching a critical juncture.

I believe there are many extremely critical factors in play that could very well lead to a full scale conflict there.

First of all, on a global level, I feel we should not discount the belief across Washington and Whitehall that it is their imperative mission and duty to see western liberal values established worldwide. This I believe is the true backdrop to the lack of any major and true effort to reach a settlement amenable to all in the Donbass. The fight to achieve certain overarching goals agreed after 9/11 and at all costs has disrupted all previously normal diplomatic procedures and structures. An all or nothing approach of constant aggression without compromise has replaced all true diplomacy entirely.

I am not one of those who ascribes an evil, and not even necessarily a negative or underhand motivation to western elites pushing for a winning situation for Kiev in the Donbass. Nor do I see them in this light in their many similar policies elsewhere. I am quite certain these western elites truly believe that they MUST achieve western liberal values as the accepted default everywhere across the planet. And this means ridding the world of every vestige of systems which are not fully democratic and therefore somewhat or wholly authoritarian in their eyes.

This, in my view, makes these elites much more dangerous than if they were simply bad people with bad motivations seeking to do bad things for their own self-interest. I find them more dangerous in this state as they can do the things we have previously seen them do that have utterly devastating consequences and do them with a perfectly clear conscience. This because their motivation for doing them is good and they know it is good. Naturally I see them as thoroughly one dimensional in their thinking due to being constantly reinforced by those around them who exactly mirror their views and no counter-argument is never given nor requested.

All this having been said, their goal of a fully democratic planet which U.S. elites and their allied elites will monitor 24/7 from a comprehensive sphere of orbiting satellites has suffered several major setbacks recently, the pandemic being one of the most major. Another is the Chinese factor. China has recovered from the pandemic and its economic star is now rising fast once more... while the West will certainly hit a downturn which could persist for at least six months if not more. The timetable to achieve the ultimate goal named above is in danger of falling well behind a schedule that was, even before the pandemic, becoming more and more difficult to achieve in terms of sub-goals requiring specific regime change operations being brought to a successful conclusion.

China was supposed to head closer and closer toward a western direction with greater and greater liberalization following on from its embrace of capitalism. This has not occurred. Instead China has created a powerfully successful non-democratic system of its own known as 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics'. This success, creating the most successful economic system ever seen, has shocked those in the UK and USA who had assumed China would not present such a barrier as it is now doing to the primary post-9/11 goals.

Particularly since 9/11 these goals simply CANNOT be given up. This is utterly unthinkable to those charged with achieving them. There can surely be no question that those named above WERE the goals agreed. To me this is obvious.

So... the great danger of violence and loss of life emerging from any and all flash points, including in Crimea and Ukraine now, is not the consideration carrying most weight for western elites. We are all used to thinking in terms of the way things used to be where the danger of all out conflagration between the West and East was unthinkable and everything was done despite brinkmanship to avert the catastrophe of another world war. I am very much afraid this thinking at the level we are talking of in the UK and USA has been abandoned. The overriding goal of securing the prime directive of gaining a totally democratic, monitored and therefore safe world (for the USA primarily re. the shock of 9/11) overrides everything. And time is now seen to be very short to disrupt both Russia and then, even more importantly for these elites, China.

For the above reasons I believe the signs of imminent conflict in the Donbass and Crimea are indeed terrifyingly possible and incredibly dangerous. I fear there will indeed be a war, at least from one side.

I suspect the U.S. and Kiev may well harbor a suspicion that Moscow would hesitate before giving a similar military response to theirs. If the Kremlin is not fully ready to respond and in force at a moment’s notice then it may lose enough momentum to then lose all possible strategic initiative. If Washington and Kiev strike they will strike full force and in a style reminiscent of the blitzkreig mode of the Nazis. The only positive would be that casualties would be kept to a minimum, at least this would be the gist of all news reports in the West, i.e. that only the "terrorist" and "Russian occupiers" had been killed/eliminated and the general tone would be one of praise denoting justice had been done. All reports (as in the conflict from 2014 until today would frame Kiev as wholly correct and Russia and those seeking autonomy as totally wrong.)

Would Russia really respond immediately? If not immediately, what about after a fait accompli when the U.S./Kiev strikes and ground troops had become completely embedded within the civilian population and in all administrative buildings? Would Russia REALLY rush troops over the border in a full scale attack with the possible attendant use of missile strikes? I wonder. I suspect not. And if not... then it is essentially all over and all Moscow can do is complain bitterly, to anyone who will listen anywhere and to the United Nations specifically. To no avail. The ‘International Community’ so-called and the entirety of western mainstream media would get behind both the Ukrainian regime in regime and the elites in the USA that supplied the expertise and troops and that would be that.

Crimea would be more difficult for the U.S. and Kiev to win back. I would think if Donetsk and Lugansk were indeed taken blitzkreig-style this would be used to the maximum to put ever more pressure on Russia and the population of Crimea to relinquish the status of the peninsula and return it to Ukraine.

I have heard in recent years that the U.S. political and military elites now believe that limited tactical nuclear attacks could now be contemplated with a high likelihood of success even with obvious negative consequences taken into consideration. It would not surprise me if this element of threat came into play at some point. Perhaps not in respect to Crimea but possibly even there, though I consider it much more likely these would be held in abeyance for a possible solution to continued resistance by China to the U.S. goals as stated.

If China is judged not likely to come to Russia's aid Russia, even with its hypersonic weaponry, cannot win against the array of military might composed of the USA along with that of all EU nations plus NATO. Add to this that Putin’s personality is not that of a belligerent aggressor minded to easily order unnecessary death. He is very likely to hold back any option that would cause serious loss of life. The western elites will surely have calculated this into their equations regarding what they could get away with if they are “bold” as they might see it.

A stalemate has been arrived at in the Donbass and Crimea. The one last chance was a new Ukrainian president who said he'd do all he could to fix the situation equitably. However, he he was blocked at every turn by the Kiev’s Rada parliament. There is now no way through to the federalized state Putin envisaged as the solution. And with Minsk dead, now what? Ukraine needs a solution as its economy is in the toilet. But there IS no DIPLOMATIC worth anything nor is there any sign one ever will be.

That only leaves a military option as the one remaining “solution” as the clock ticks on and circumstances worsen for the West.

All of the above considered this is my analysis in brief:

There are growing fears in Washington that the post-9/11 goals are steadily becoming less and less attainable.

This is completely unacceptable to the elites involved.

If nothing is done the post-9/11 goals WILL become unattainable as China advances ever further economically and with attendant diplomatic influence rising. Russia also looks set to improve its economic status through a strong informal alliance with China.

An imperative is undoubtedly felt in Washington to see Europe tied completely to all U.S. goals via the Trans-Atlantic Alliance at all costs. China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ and Russia’s ‘Nordstream 2‘ pipeline will inevitable further their influence in Europe. These seemingly inevitable developments as things stand now will make the post-9/11goals ever harder to to attain.

The timeframe for action to create a change in the direction of travel in all respects is shortening.

Something MUST be done. And very soon.

Ukraine is the obvious place to begin a major push back. Along with the continuing propaganda push against China in Xinjiang and elsewhere and the Navalny et al push in Russia.

The action most likely to occur at some point in eastern Ukraine would certainly come as a major shock to the entire world... but this may well be seen as a plus whereby the ‘America Is Back’ narrative and meme gets shown to be more than mere words.

Western mainstream press and media would without laud the fact that action was taken at last to cleanse the running sore that has been left to fester for far too long. No mention whatsoever would be made of the U.S. and EU sponsored and fomented coup in Kiev in 2013/14. The blame for any deaths would be laid squarely at the feet of “Russian Terrorists” and the Kremlin.

The world would carry on almost as if nothing had happened.

With a sigh of relief the elites of the western world and their media partners would believe the matter was now laid to rest.

And though it may never be admitted to, there may even be within the walls of the Kremlin a certain sad sigh of relief also.

(This while troops and arms are speedily sent to defend Russian Crimea.)