MISSION CREEP, ESCALATION, A DECLARATION OF ALL OUT WAR & THE FATE OF UKRAINE
I would think the time is coming soon when Russia may find itself put in a position where it feels it necessary to declare war on Ukraine and thus open up a much expanded field of operation and target roster.
I have heard that Russia expects to start targeting the electricity network in August/September if there is no sign of the regime arriving at the negotiating table.
I appreciate that the Russian high command and Putin himself wish to minimise the extent of damage to vital infrastructure whenever possible, however, if Ukraine is going to start hitting targets within Russia using long-range missiles for their HIMAR systems, guided to target by extremely accurate GPS data from U.S. satellites, then I feel the Russians will be left with little choice but to respond with all out war against the Kiev regime.
This above would undoubtedly include hitting every known command and control centre, plus every vital asset; military or otherwise, that Kiev uses to keep the war going. This would essentially be the western mode of war, especially that of the USA where a global effort is made to destroy the entire edifice and social foundation of a nation almost taking a it back, as was said during the Iraq war and elsewhere, ‘to the Stone Age’.
Why you might ask, as Russia has air supremacy, not simply destroy all these systems as they arrive? I can only presume that until now there has been some difficulty in Russia being able to target each and every point of entry where such western weaponry can arrive.
Perhaps there has also been an unwillingness to attack certain airports where American military flights arrive. Perhaps also due to these also being civilian passenger arrival and departure points. Alternatively Or perhaps there are simply too many road networks on Ukraine's borders to comprehensively halt these transports and that they can never be fully halted.
Whatever the answer to the questions above I would suggest that if the West (and in particular the USA and UK) escalate the conflict further with the provision of long range missiles with 300 mile targeting capability for the HIMAR systems already delivered with more to come and if these are used to hit targets within Russia then all bets are off.
Russia will inevitably respond to such attacks with devastating force and we are likely to see command and control centres hit with the potential death of many western/NATO advisers located within them along with whatever Ukrainian staff are based there. In addition there will be nowhere safe in any Ukrainian city for its politicians to reside and have a normal life. Internet services and much else including electricity is likely to be speedily cut off.
Russia cannot afford to lose this conflict whatever the cost may be. As Vladimir Putin has said in the last few days, Russia is only using a small percentage of its forces and weaponry currently and if pushed to can bring to bear significantly more devastating firepower if it is called upon to do so. The goals set for itself are utterly crucial to Russia’s future security.
The approach of NATO at her border had become totally intolerable, especially as added to this already significant multi-nation presence the desire was to see the Nazi-mentality infested western Ukraine achieve full dominance over the Russian-speaking population of eastern Ukraine by dint of a full scale military offensive apparently scheduled for late February-early March.
It is known in western elite circles that Russia’s focus is on the Russian-speaking population of eastern Ukraine that Russia was never going to turn her back upon. All the talk of Russia having ambitions to take other nations or even the entirety of Europe are fictions.
The task of just taking and securing the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine is onerous enough as can be seen by the way Russia is required to burn steadily and methodically through the barriers placed in its past and even taking the whole of Ukraine is out of the question.
It is not only a case of difficulty in taking ground, Russia does not have the capability or wish (the Russian would have to be mad to try) to govern an occupied land with all the constant immense difficulties that would entail, never mind six, eight or ten.
The fight for the Donbass is far and away enough for Russia to take on, secure and hold in perpetuity. Only those with insanely poor understanding of Russian capabilities or a wish to use a maximum fear scenario, even one as harebrained as a Russian occupation of Europe, to enhance their own military power and status could posit such an idea as a feasible prospect.
The struggle in the Donbass is a grueling one where artillery batteries wreak havoc and a thousand and more troops are taken out of the fighting by injury or death every single day. It very much looks like becoming deadlier still over the next few days and weeks, especially if the USA and UK (primarily) continue to up the ante with further hi-tech heavy weapon systems for have no doubt Russia will respond and up the ante herself.
In the end Ukraine WILL be defeated and a tragically high number of those who fought for her will be dead or injured and who knows, after all the mission creep, escalation and quite possibly a declaration of war by Russia… will there be any functioning state called Ukraine left at all.