RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 07.01.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
*** RUSSIA: FULL-SCALE OFFENSIVE AFTER ORTHODOX CHRISTMAS? ***
“Ukraine. What is the truth...?
Why won’t western media tell both sides…?”
VIRTUALLY UNREPORTED ATROCITY IN LUGANSK, 2nd JUNE 2014
A lot has been said about atrocities in the western media claimed to have been perpetrated by the Russians, for example at Bucha and Mariupol among others. These assertions are conveyed on the say so of the Ukrainian authorities. How willing though are western news broadcasters to convey atrocities attributed to the Ukrainians? The following will I think provide the answer.
If anyone wonders if they are receiving accurate coverage of the conflict in Ukraine I would suggest watching the video below of an event which occurred on the 2nd of June 2014 and ask themselves if they recall hearing about it on any mainstream media news channel at the time.
The video is harrowing to watch. The bodies (five women and three men) are real. Yet across western media there was only one single news report that occurred a day later. This was from CNN and occurred only because a CNN team happened to be nearby at the time of the atrocity and so the network could hardly ignore it as all others so obviously did.
The video below shows the unvarnished truth that was not considered newsworthy in western mainstream news.
THE SINGLE WESTERN MSM REPORT ON THE LUGANSK ATROCITY, 3rd JUNE 2014
The video at the CNN link below is the crime scene sanitised by CNN, though played straight with honest reporting on the scene not playing things to Kiev’s tune.
(There was a time early in the war in the Donbass when CNN were not afraid to contradict the Ukrainian regime in Kiev.) Watch, because it's the first and last time you will see this.
5 women and 3 men died, all civilians.
Air attack on pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk kills 8, stuns residents.
COLLECTIVE WEST-UKRAINE <-> RUSSIA
SnowStorm | The Wild Hunt For The Abrams Tank Has Officially Begun | Military Summary For 2024.01.07
Major Volodymyr destroys Kinzhals. Orban EU takeover. Pentagon surgery secret. China water missiles.
Rus Aggressive Attrition; Big Strike Hit Kiev HQs; Ukr Outgunned, OutJammed; South Africa ICJ Claim.
Russia shoots downs 2 Ukrainian jets, Su-25, Su-27, using S-400s and a A-50 Radar aircraft.
Major Russian attack in Kupyansk with troops, tanks, and armoured vehicles advance. 550 shells fired.
Here's Scott Ritter's speech to 25,000 Chechen soldiers.
Why Giving Ukraine Longer-Range Missiles Will Make No Difference.
2024 Ukraine Frontlines w/ American Journalist Patrick Lancaster SHOCKING UPDATE.
Ukraine, Middle East, Russia, Q&A - Informal Talk.
Useless and Meaningless Gesture.
Russians Breaking Through The Defense Of Ukraine In The Kreminna Forest. Military Summary 2023.01.07
‘Rusak’, ‘Zhuravl’ and ‘Chaika’: Russian developer discusses new attack and reconnaissance drones.
The founder of the Stratim design bureau told RT about the Russian Army’s new UAVs.
In 2024, the ‘Lastochka’ (‘Swallow’) attack drone, the updated ‘Rusak’ first-person view (FPV) drone, and the ‘Zhuravl’ (‘Crane’) UAV carrier, which transports kamikaze drones, will be sent to the Ukraine conflict combat zone for testing. Discussing the developments in an interview with RT, the founder of the Stratim design bureau, which produced the weapons, said the new UAVs will effectively strike the enemy’s infantry and equipment. The Stratim team is also developing anti-interference navigation and improving its ‘Pozemka’ communication module, he added.
— When did Stratim start to develop reconnaissance and attack drones and supply them to the front? What makes your company’s products special?
— The idea to launch a company that would manufacture FPV drones came to me in the summer of 2022, when volunteers started talking about the shortage of drones. [The late military blogger] Vladlen Tatarsky had a particular influence on me. We personally discussed the type of equipment that our soldiers lacked.
The final decision to open the design bureau and the production site was made in the fall of 2022. I got a team of engineers together from among the people I knew, and they brought along other specialists, people they were acquainted with. The design bureau was named ‘Stratim’ after a Russian mythical bird with a woman’s face.
At first, Stratim operated in ‘garage mode’ at a defense industry research institute. Then, in November 2022, I traveled to the front line with RT military correspondent Andrey Filatov. I witnessed the tough storming of Pervomaisky [an urban settlement near Donetsk]. Together with Filatov, we helped the soldiers of the 9th Regiment of the People’s Militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) by conducting reconnaissance using drones.
In order to understand the specifics of modern combat operations and the use of UAVs, I studied topography and artillery reconnaissance, as well as assault operation tactics.
That’s how I understood exactly what type of drones the army needed – what tactical and technical characteristics they should have, what kind of onboard equipment, communications equipment, machine vision equipment, and the software they have to be equipped with.
Our first drones were quite primitive, but with each new model they became more complex, more technologically advanced and efficient.
Now, the UAVs developed by Stratim are well adapted to the strategy of combat operations, which implies a very short period of time between military reconnaissance and attack. Our drones are divided by their functional purpose (i.e. reconnaissance and attack drones), weight (light, medium, and heavy-weight drones), and according to the aerodynamic construction (multi-rotor drones and fixed-wing UAVs).
We also always supply relay drones. They ensure the transmission of control signals and the operation of a video channel that’s necessary for reconnaissance drones equipped with a camera and FPV drones. Drones of this type often hover at an altitude of about 150 meters and work in offline mode.
Naturally, we’re always concerned about the safety of drone pilots. The drone controls produced by Stratim can be located 50-100 meters from the position of the crew. The drone pilot and co-pilot remain hidden in a shelter. If the enemy’s radio intelligence detects the control signals, the strike will hit the communication equipment or the wire that stretches from the shelter [but not the pilots themselves].
Today, Stratim has its own production site, and a separate R&D department that develops components and additional modules for drones, such as flight controllers as well as communication and computer vision equipment.
At the current stage, it’s important for all our products to be tested at the front.
— Why don’t you disclose your name, but use the military call sign Obi Wan?
— Our work greatly annoys the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Presently, the enemy is losing [the battle] and we know that their special services are trying to track down Russian engineers, including those who produce UAVs. For security reasons, the Stratim team doesn’t disclose any personal data. However, any of us who want to cooperate with the media or is active on social media can use military call signs for identification.
I’d like to say a few words about the company’s engineering masterminds. For example, Stratim’s chief designer used to work on CERN’s Large Hadron Collider project, and the director of the multirotor department worked on robotics at the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology.
— You mentioned that your drones are used in the short period of time between military reconnaissance and attacking a target. Could you explain how your UAVs are used in practice?
— When developing the drones, we took into account the specific characteristics of how they would be used and the distance to the target. For example, at short range (5-10km) or, in military terms, at ‘tactical depth’, one needs reconnaissance UAVs that can create an orthophotoplan – i.e. a digital map of the area made by means of digital photography. In the context of the current military conflict, the orthophotoplan includes not only a detailed map of the terrain and buildings, but also the location of enemy positions and firing points.
It’s very difficult to create an orthophotoplan near the front line because of electronic warfare (EW) equipment – mainly anti-drone weapons and other compact jammers, such as trench electronic warfare systems.
One of the simplest ways to protect drones is to fly them in radio silence mode, when the devices fly along a pre-established route [i.e. using the so-called internal navigation system]. In this mode, enemy jammers rarely detect UAV signatures, but even if this happens, the drone will not be disabled and will safely return home.
Our reconnaissance drones meet all of the above requirements. The autonomous drone ‘Voron’ (‘Raven’) is launched first in order to create an orthophotoplan. It can fly at an altitude of up to 500 meters, and it takes 30 minutes to execute the task. This UAV is quite maneuverable and can reach a speed of over 40km/h. It’s used for mapping terrain and buildings.
Then, the ‘Vorobey’ (‘Sparrow’) drone rises into the sky. It’s a lot like the Mavic quadrotor drone. It has all the advantages of the Chinese version, but doesn’t require reprogramming — the user can customize it for their tasks. The drone’s main tool is a camera with 6x zoom. Usually, this is enough to see the enemy’s positions.
Kamikaze drones then take off and strike targets located at tactical depth, such as the enemy’s firing points, the infantry located in shelters, and armored vehicles. These are ‘Shegol’ (‘Goldfinch’) light attack drones which are capable of carrying a combat load of up to 2kg, as well as ‘Rusak’ UAVs with a 3kg payload capacity, which carry RPG-7 shaped-charge ammunition. Also, these UAVs can be equipped with a TBG-7V thermobaric projectile, which is designed to destroy manpower in shelters. Most often, shaped-charge grenades are suspended on these UAVs.
To drop VOGs (high explosive fragmentation grenades), the Stratima team has developed the ‘Golub’ (‘Dove’) bomber drone with a revolver-type cylinder capable of firing 12 grenade launcher shots. This drone is effective during an offensive or for striking infantry in poorly equipped fortifications.
The ‘Rusak’ drone is currently undergoing modernization. In 2024, its updated version will be able to strike even moving targets thanks to the autopilot feature [that can be activated] in the final stages of the flight. To be more precise, this FPV drone will have homing devices which will be activated 500 meters before approaching the target. The improved Rusak drone will make the drone pilot’s work easier and safer.
At medium range, which can be defined as 10-40km, we suggest using our vertical takeoff and landing drones, constructed according to the ‘tailsitter’ design. Such drones take off from a small platform and then shift to horizontal flight.
What targets are located at medium range? Primarily MLRS and barrel artillery, so this range is important for counter-battery warfare. Also, armored vehicles, warehouses, and infantry troops that replace fighters who are in the trenches, are all located within 40km. Attacking the enemy’s manpower at medium range can disrupt the rotation of troops.
When developing medium-range UAVs, our team took several factors into account. First of all, building a normal runway would be nearly impossible [in frontline conditions]. Secondly, catapult launchers would be problematic since their elastic cables freeze at subzero temperatures.
For effective reconnaissance missions at medium range, we use the ‘Strepet’ (‘Little Bustard’) reconnaissance drone. Among its advantages are vertical takeoff and landing and a heavy payload capacity. This drone can conduct reconnaissance using both visible light and thermal imaging methods. The Strepet has a flight range of up to 100km, can carry a payload of up to 10kg, and has a speed of up to 100km/h.
To strike enemy equipment, the Stratima team is developing the ‘Chaika’ (‘Seagull’) loitering munition with a shaped-charge warhead, with a range of up to 30km. It’s capable of carrying explosives of the K3-6 type weighing about 4kg. If necessary, it can also be used as a medium-range reconnaissance drone. This is also a ‘tailsitter’-type model. It takes off vertically and then switches to horizontal flight.
Another interesting tailsitter-type drone is called ‘Redkaya Ptitsa’ (‘Rare Bird’) — it is more compact and has four X-shaped wings, which allow it to fly more than 20km using the lift coefficient. At the same time, in terms of cost and simplicity of design, this UAV is comparable to an FPV drone.
Another promising model with similar functionality is the ‘Zhurval’ (‘Crane’) drone. It will become one of the first Russian drone carriers which are often called ‘drone mother ships’. The UAV will carry three ‘Sinitsa’ (‘Parus’) kamikaze drones capable of hitting military equipment from any side.
The wingspan of this drone is about 2 meters, the maximum take-off weight is 25kg, the flight range is 30-50km, and maximum speed is 100km/h. We expect to test this drone in 2024.
We also think the army will need a kind of Switchblade-600 analog. We called it ‘Lastochka’ (‘Swallow’). This kamikaze drone will be placed in a transport and launch container – one similar to the RPO-A Shmel tube. It can be easily transported on the shoulder, and prior to launch it is mounted on two legs, like a mortar.
The drone will have wing opening mechanisms. Lastochka will be able to carry 1.5kg of explosives and hit targets at a distance of up to 35km. Presently, we are solving a number of technical issues. In 2024, the system will be sent to the front for testing. The main advantages of this drone are a simple launch mechanism and modern guidance tools.
— Several Russian private manufacturers are developing jet-powered UAVs. Have you ever considered this as well?
— Yes, we are currently working on several such UAV models. We’re developing an EW-resistant medium-long range drone called ‘Tyuvik’ (‘Levant sparrowhawk’) which will take off from 2-meter-long reusable folding rails. A solid fuel rocket engine (also called a ‘black powder rocket motor’) will propel the UAV.
One modification of the Tyuvik drone will be powered by petrol, the other – which will have a range of 40km – will use electric motors. To strike a target, only the coordinates will be required. The object will be detected with the means of machine vision.
Other jet-powered UAVs that are being developed are long-range drones. They will be equipped with small-sized gas turbine engines. The ‘Yastreb’ (‘Hawk’) UAV will also use solid-fuel propellants. Stratim presents this model as a smaller analogue of the ‘Geranium’ drone.
The UAV will be constructed using affordable components and, like the Geranium drone, should be cheap. We are currently testing an engine turbine, and it’s already starting to give the right traction. The tests should be completed this winter. The flight range of the ‘Yastreb’ drone is 300-350km and its payload capacity is 16kg.
— What other projects is Stratim working on?
— In addition to developing new UAVs and improving current models, Stratim is focused on developing target recognition and homing devices.
We’re working on the implementation of anti-interference navigation – this technology doesn’t use signals from global satellite systems, since these are vulnerable to electronic warfare systems. Specifically, these flight technologies employ visual odometry – i.e. when images of the underlying surface are analyzed and used for navigation. This method is more effective than conventional inertial navigation systems. Odometry allows the UAV’s computer to map out a route [to a specific target] and back.
Currently, we’re also writing a protocol for the ‘Pozemka’ communication module that we had developed earlier. The module operates at non-standard frequencies and uses frequency-hopping spread spectrum technology.
We have also created our own analog video transmission system and antennas for it. It operates in a frequency range that the AFU’s electronic intelligence systems currently do not recognize, and it can’t be jammed by the enemy’s EW equipment. We believe that our ideas in the field of communications and autonomous flights will boost the effectiveness of UAVs, save the lives of our soldiers, and bring victory closer.
‘Rusak’, ‘Zhuravl’ and ‘Chaika’: Russian developer discusses new attack and reconnaissance drones.
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The Last Stream.
Communications Breakdown in UK.
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Russia To Deploy New Powerful Howitzers To Ukraine's Battlefield: Equipped With Modern Cannons.
Russia produces 300,000 FPV drones monthly, trains 5,200 operators.
COLLECTIVE WEST <-> GLOBAL MAJORITY
ISRAEL <-> PALESTINE-IRAN-SYRIA-LEBANON-YEMEN
Yes, Israel Is Committing Genocide.
The Duran: Neocons want WAR in Middle East and Israel, the US will LOSE Big.
Israel is detrimental to the west.
'Israel Won't Win Against Hezbollah': U.S.' Chilling Warning As Netanyahu Plans New War | Report.
After 60-Missile Attack, Hezbollah Launches 8-Hour Barrage On Israel: 'Avenge Arouri' Op | Hamas.
Islamic Jihad's Bomb Hits Israeli Cop In West Bank; 6 Palestinians Killed In Drone Strike | Watch:
Far-right Israeli Ministers Are Pushing The Region Into Chaos.
South Africa Charges Israel With GENOCIDE In International Court Of Justice.
Krystal BREAKS DOWN: Israel Genocide Charge.
Weasel Blinken visits to the WRONG countries to prevent WAR from spreading in the Middle East.
How Israel Destroyed Arab-Jewish Communities (Ft. Ilan Pappé).
Iran Gets Ready To Take Out The West After This, Tensions Take A Toll.
Useless and Meaningless Gesture.
USA
When You look around the world... Who Wants War?
The age of America is coming to an end.
ELECTION 2024 - THE CRISIS OF LEGITIMACY.
America Signals The Unthinkable As US Debt Hits Record $34 TRILLION Dollars.
I Call it a Military Adventure.
White House DISMISSES South Africa's Israel Lawsuit as MERITLESS.
EUROPE
Is Olaf Scholz on his way out as German Chancellor?
AFRICA
Russia And Burkina Faso Solidify Their Relationship As Russia Re-Opens Embassy After 32 Years.
2024 - Black / African Friendly Country + Easy Visa Approval.
Ibrahim Traore's Vigorous New Year Address and Ongoing Fight Against Neo-Colonialism.
Captain Traore's Burkina Faso Fighters Launch Surprise Offensive That Scares The West.
UN Peacekeepers Officially Withdraw From Mali As Mission Ends After A Decade.
MULTIPOLARITY - RUSSIA-CHINA / BRICS
Time is Ripe for Dollar-Free Grain Trade Within BRICS.
Expanded BRICS, a club of major developing economies, could become a platform for a self-sufficient dollar-free grain market, economists say.
BRICS – an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – added net grain importers Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2024, almost equalizing the production and consumption of key grain crops within the group.
Under these circumstances, the association may create its own trading platform and trade grain within the group without using the US dollar, reads a letter from the Russian Union of Grain Exporters (Rusgrain Union) to the Ministry of Agriculture, reviewed by Russian business newspaper Vedomosti.
According to Rusgrain Union estimates, the five BRICS countries at the end of 2023 produced a total of 1.17 billion tons of grain per year (42% of world production) and consumed 1.1 billion tons (40% of world consumption). After the expansion, the group's grain production will mount to 1.23 billion tons per year (44% of the world), and consumption will come close to production, i.e. 1.22 billion tons (also 44%).
"Statistically, it is true that 25% of the wheat trade is Russian wheat," Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical company ProZerno, told Sputnik. "Likewise, more than 25% of the corn trade is Brazilian corn. Moreover, if we talk about soybeans, then about 58% of world trade is Brazilian soybeans. At the same time, China is the largest buyer of corn and wheat, Egypt is the largest buyer of wheat, although to a lesser extent; but they buy wheat in the same way as China there, 12 million tons per year. Now Saudi Arabia has been added, the main buyer of barley. But still, the key commodities are wheat, corn and soybeans. And for all of them, especially considering those who joined in January, this is a huge market."
BRICS countries represent a huge part, and in some cases more than half of the market for these agricultural goods, the expert pointed out. "In short, this fruit is ripe to be picked up," Petrichenko stressed.
BRICS' Grain Exchange
In the letter to the ministry, Rusgrain Union Chairman Eduard Zernin, argued that these developments create the preconditions for the formation of a BRICS "grain exchange." He believes that Russia could play "the role of a supplier of last resort," to which "other net exporters may later join."
"We have serious prerequisites for creating our own trading platform with settlements in any of the currencies of the BRICS countries, and in the future – in a special clearing currency in Russia or one of the countries with a strong financial system and a freely convertible currency other than the dollar," argued Zernin.
The government initiative to create a group grain exchange wouldn't be enough: what is also needed is the commercial participation of operators of the grain and oilseed markets, according to Petrichenko.
"The creation of an exchange is in many ways not entirely a government matter. That is, it is created by commercial operators. So there must be joint work between state and non-state operators. If we look at the Chinese Dalian exchange, its influence on pricing in the markets is insignificant, although the turnover there is very large," the expert explained, expressing optimism over the endeavor's prospects.
Having abandoned the US dollar, the group would need to pick a proper clearing currency, the expert continued.
"Another key point is the clearing part. That is, what the clearing center will be like, where it will be, and most importantly, in what currency the settlements will be made," Petrichenko said.
Will West Throw Sand in BRICS' Gears?
Per Petrichenko, there will be very strong resistance to this process from the countries designated by Russia as "unfriendly" in the wake of the sanctions spree over Moscow's special military operation in Ukraine. Major Western countries and their satellites have tried to paralyze Russia's energy and grain trade in a bid to make the nation's economy scream. However, this trick has not worked.
"[Russia] has already considerably displaced the US and EU in the wheat market," the expert noted. "Brazil has greatly pushed the US in the corn market. At least now Brazil exports more corn than the United States. And in the soybean market, Brazil has long been number one. Therefore, there will be very strong resistance and sabotage on the part of the unfriendly outgoing exporters."
He expects that the process of a "redistribution of markets" won't be an easy one. Still, the US and the EU are likely to see their global share substantially diminished in the future, as per Petrichenko.
"Right now it appears to be hard to imagine that, given that the key operators in these markets are transnational companies that have their headquarters in the US and the EU. That is, whatever one may say, there are main players in this market – transnational companies. They represent an 'unfriendly contingent' for BRICS and especially Russia," the expert concluded.
Time is Ripe for Dollar-Free Grain Trade Within BRICS.
NON-ENGLISH NEWS
US-Präsidentschaftskandidatin Dr. Jill Stein über Israel & Ukraine.
MAPPING CHANNELS
SnowStorm | The Wild Hunt For The Abrams Tank Has Officially Begun | Military Summary For 2024.01.07
Russians Breaking Through The Defense Of Ukraine In The Kreminna Forest. Military Summary 2023.01.07
Kharkiv Offensive Is Coming | Scenario Analysis.
Ukrainian Military Fails Frustrate Western Allies, Rybar Map for January 6th, 2023.
Russia's Excellent Air Defense In Crimea. Russia Advances In Marinka & Kreminna. Front Update.
WAR UPDATE: Russia EXPANDS Control Past Maryinka.
Further Russian Advance In Marinka And North Of Avdiivka.
VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WE ARE APPROACHING THE END GAME IN THE DONBASS AND A LIKELY BLOODBATH
Russia now recognises its enemies are not the Ukrainians but the political elite of the West. However, in the weeks and months to come it will instead be the Ukrainians who will die in their droves.
The final push by Russian forces to take and then permanently hold all that remains of the entire Donbass region is likely to begin within the next few months. The softening up of the Ukrainian lines has gone on apace through artillery fire and fire from the air. Over the last month there have been heavy losses on the Ukrainian side where many important military assets have been destroyed with much loss of life.
The Ukrainian regime is struggling to generate enough new troops through enforced mobilisation to build its forces back to strength. This however, is impossible given the time frame available. The most professionally trained and experienced troops are gone and can only be replaced using forced conscripts given training of a week or two at most. Many of these will have been forced against their will and are likely to flee the battlefield and surrender as soon as they find an opportunity to do so.
During the current forced mobilisation videos are constantly appearing of men running in flight from the recruiting officers and mass demonstrations from families against the recruiters. Men are being violently torn from their families and the numbers attempting to flee across the Ukrainian border by paying $5,000 to those willing to transport them is rising constantly. If the general mobilisation bill going through the Ukrainian parliament currently passes we will see thousands forcibly taken from their loved ones, given minimum training, and sent to die on the front lines.
The coming battle will without doubt be fierce and the losses on both sides are likely to be considerable. However, as has been the case throughout the numbers of Ukrainians dying is far higher, something near ten Ukrainians dying for each Russian. While the death toll among the Ukrainians ranges between 400 and 800 per day this could spike very soon. The Ukrainians are running out of both fuel and ammunition and with freezing conditions starting to hit hard the logistics of delivering supplies to them will become increasingly onerous. Cases of frostbite among Ukrainian prisoners of war is rapidly increasing.
In recent weeks Russia has begun to seriously degrade the regime’s air defence systems along with the arms and fuel dumps of its army. With a massively upgraded arms industry Russia has a constant stream of military vehicles, missiles and other munitions to supply to its army and appears poised to make a major push forward. There is every indication is that this war is about to enter its bloodiest stage where no quarter will be given on either side.
The regime appears to have recently transferred as many heavy weapons including HIMARS rocket launchers into position along the front line where Russia is expected within weeks to launch its attack. A significant number, including a PATRIOT system appear to have been destroyed there recently. Russia has significant satellite systems in operation which are evidently detecting these movements.
This will, in all probability be the final battle for the Donbass. It is inconceivable that the remaining cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk will stand for long if the coming assault claims the remaining major conurbations of the Donbass. Avdeyevka appears ready to fall within the next two weeks or so even without the expected major Russian surge forward.
If scenario one occurs then the rest of the Donetsk Oblast must surely fall to Russia within a month or two of the taking of Avdeyevka. Kharkov will surely not hold out long once the Ukrainian troops there realise they stand no hope as the Ukrainian defence line collapses up and down the front. A pause is more than likely immediately thereafter however while mopping up operations are conducted and, as before, the Russian troops liberating these areas are rested to prepare for the final push to take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
The coming phase of the conflict in Ukraine appears certain to be extremely bloody. Only one side is at all confident concerning the prospect for success and has strength enough in depth to consider holding negotiations toward the Ukrainians coming to terms in a capitulation that allowing some semblance of dignity. The Russians have a military history where negotiations take place while a conflict rages on have expressed an interest in resolving the issues involved ever since the coup of 2014 and continue to seek conflict resolution to this day. However, there is no reciprocal response from the other side even though such an arrangement did exist in the early days of the conflict. An arrangement undermined by then UK prime minister Boris Johnson and U.S. president Biden.
Neither side can afford to lose. And of course these sides are not simply one on one. Alongside the Ukrainians you have the entire collective west. The leaders of the West cannot afford to lose out to Russia. Equally Russia cannot afford to lose out to them. Driving NATO from its doorstep, ending the ultra-nationalist Nazi-mentality so prominent in western Ukraine and establishing the security of the Russian-speaking citizens of the Donbass are absolutely vital goals for Russia. Existential goals for the most part. This is now a fight to the death, to the absolute defeat of one side or the other with (unless attendance at negotiations are agreed to by the Ukrainians) no way out but an orgy of death and destruction to the bitter end.
