RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 21.12.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE NOOSE IS INEXORABLY TIGHTENING AROUND ZELENSKY’S NECK & THAT OF HIS REGIME AS THE RUSSIAN MILITARY TAKES EVER MORE TERRITORY.
COLLECTIVE WEST | RUSSIA
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Russia Hits Ukraine’s ‘Strategic’ Weapons Manufacturer in Retaliatory Strike – Why is it Important?
Russian forces earlier retaliated against Kiev’s ATACMS attack on the Taganrog military airfield with a massive shelling of Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which led to power outages across Ukraine.
The Russian military has launched a high-precision strike on the Luch, a Kiev-based weapons designer, among other targets, in response to a recent attack with Western-made missiles on the Rostov region. Let’s take a closer look at the Luch.
Shard of Soviet Legacy Now Owned by Kiev
It was established in the former Soviet Union in 1965 with the aim of designing guided munition;
After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the Luch was handed over to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry;
The bureau is mentioned in local media as a scientific and production enterprise of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, which is of “strategic importance for the economy and security of the country”;
One of Kiev Regime's Strategic Armories
The Luch designs and manufactures projectiles for the Olkha multiple launch rocket systems;
It also produces the Neptune anti-ship missile systems;
Additionally, the bureau is involved in the research and development work on the creation of anti-tank guided missiles, land, air and sea-based missile systems, air guided missiles, anti-aircraft guided missiles, mine and torpedo weapons, as well as missile and other guided weapons control systems, plus anti-tank missile system simulators.
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Dmitry Trenin: What Ukraine should look like after Russia’s victory.
The coming post-conflict process will mark the beginning of a stable and secure future for both nations.
By Dmitry Trenin, a research professor at the Higher School of Economics and a lead research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. He is also a member of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
Kiev, Ukraine.
There’s a timeless rule: in peace, prepare for war; in war, think about peace. As the conflict in Ukraine nears its inevitable conclusion – a Russia victory – our thoughts must turn toward the future and to the shape of the peace that follows.
To paraphrase Stalin: The Banderites [followers of the WW2 Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera] come and go, but the Ukrainian people remain.
The Future Map of Ukraine
Ukraine, as it existed on December 31, 1991, is gone. Crimea, Donbass, and two other regions have already returned to Russia through referendums. More will likely follow – perhaps Odessa, Nikolayev, Kharkov, or Dnepropetrovsk. But not all of them. We will take only what can be integrated and defended. Expansion must be strategic, not emotional.
Kiev’s remaining territories will stay outside Russia’s borders. What kind of Ukraine will emerge there? Answering this question is critical, not just for Ukraine’s future, but for Russia’s security.
A Russian Mission of Liberation
In civilizational, cultural, and historical terms, Ukraine – or most of it – belongs to the Russian world. Today, however, it’s held hostage by anti-Russian forces backed by the West. These forces use Russian people against Russia, fighting with persistence, cunning, and brutality – despite catastrophic losses.
Moscow’s historic mission does not end with the liberation of Donbass and Novorossiya. We must free all of Ukraine from the neo-Nazi Bandera regime and its foreign sponsors. This is not imperial conquest, but national security.
Ukraine belongs first and foremost to those living there – but Russia is inseparably linked to these people and their land. After the war, we must help our neighbors rebuild Ukraine: first pacified, then peaceful, eventually a partner, and ultimately an ally.
Russia has proven its ability to turn military adversaries into allies. Look at Chechnya, now a bastion of stability in the North Caucasus. Consider Russia’s post-war partnership with Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance, or how East Germany became a Soviet ally after World War II.
Post-War Scenarios
Experts in Russia have outlined various visions for post-war Ukraine.
Full Integration: Russia could take all of Ukraine, including Lviv, up to NATO’s borders. This would mean a second reunification – the end of Ukrainian statehood. But keeping such a vast territory, fully integrating it and paying for its reconstruction, would be a colossal burden.
Pro-Western Ukraine: The worst-case scenario is a bitter, revanchist Ukraine with slightly reduced borders – a virulently anti-Russian state controlled by the West. Its sole purpose would be to provoke and attack Russia when the time is right. This possibility must be prevented at all costs.
Failed State: A fragmented Ukraine, abandoned by the West and dependent on Russia, might descend into chaos – a kind of anarchist “Gulyaypole” ruled by criminal gangs and militias. Russia could try manipulating these forces, but Western meddling would persist. This unstable scenario is undesirable.
Divided Ukraine: The most realistic and advantageous outcome would be a divided Ukraine. Anti-Russian forces could be pushed into the western regions under NATO protection, possibly splitting the country into a “Free Ukraine” controlled by Poland, Hungary, and Romania, and a new Ukraine. Let the West console itself with this Cold War-style buffer state.
Meanwhile, the new Ukraine – stripped of ultra-nationalist elements – could emerge, free from toxic ideologies. This Ukraine would be smaller but stable, economically integrated with Russia, and politically neutral. It makes sense to offer such a prospect to the Ukrainians and explain to them how advantageous it is for them.
A New Ukrainian Identity
The new Ukraine would be more genuinely Ukrainian than its Soviet predecessor. Joseph Stalin made a mistake by attaching the former Polish provinces of Galicia and Volyn and infecting the state with the virus of nationalism. Ukrainian culture could flourish without foreign interference, while its economy would be integrated into the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Kiev would be cleansed of the corrupt elites that infested it after the Western-backed 2014 Maidan coup.
This Ukraine would inherit the best of its historical legacy: Kievan Rus’, the Zaporozhian Cossacks, and the cultural achievements of its Soviet past. It would be proud of its contributions to the Russian Empire, the USSR, and to shared East Slavic civilization.
In today’s world, true sovereignty for Ukraine, as for other post-Soviet states, is possible only through close cooperation with Russia. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church would remain the spiritual anchor of the new state.
Preparing for the Future
We don’t need to wait for the war’s end to begin this work. Many patriotic Ukrainians already live in Russia, ready to rebuild their homeland. We must identify war criminals and incorrigible Russophobes, but also recruit patriots, officers, entrepreneurs, and cultural leaders willing to help rebuild Ukraine with Russian support.
We must also expose the West’s cynical treatment of Ukraine: We must expose the West’s cynical use of Ukraine: a disposable pawn, its resources plundered by Western corporations, its culture crushed under the weight of foreign mass consumerism and radical ideology. Ukrainians must see that their future lies not in a hostile, exploitative West but in partnership with Russia.
A War for Russia’s Future
This is not just about Ukraine. Victory means defeating the West’s campaign to weaken Russia. It means ending the Banderite regime and securing our nation’s future.
For Ukrainians, Russia’s victory will mark their liberation from a corrupt, foreign-imposed regime. For Russians, it will ensure stability, security, and strength for generations to come.
Victory Day must be a day of liberation – for all of us.
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Russia Strikes Ukrainian Military-Industrial Complex Facilities.
Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the progress of the special military operation.
Russian aviation and artillery has destroyed energy facilities that support the operation of Ukrainian military industrial complex enterprises and the infrastructure of military airfields, the Russian Ministry of Defense said on Saturday.
"Operational and tactical aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces, and artillery of the Russian armed forces have targeted energy facilities that support the operation of enterprises of Ukraine's military-industrial complex, the infrastructure of military airfields, storage facilities for unmanned aerial vehicles, and concentrations of personnel and military equipment of Ukrainian armed forces in 147 locations," the statement read.
The ministry also noted that eight US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and 89 drones of aircraft type had been shot down by Russian air defense systems.
Russia's Yug battle group has taken control over the settlement of Ostrovskogo (also known as Kostiantynopolske) in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), the Russian Ministry of Defense added.
"As a result of the resolute actions of the units of the Southern military group, the settlement of Ostrovskogo in the Donetsk People's Republic has been liberated," the statement read.
The ministry also said that the South battle group had eliminated 285 Ukrainian fighters over the past day.
"The enemy's casualties have amounted to up to 285 fighters; two armored combat vehicles, two vehicles, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, one US-made 105-mm M119 howitzer and five field ammunition depots have been destroyed," the statement notes.
Pepe Escobar: Putin’s Q&A and the Forever Wars Riddle.
He spoke for four and a half hours, virtually non-stop, reviewing the results of 2024, mastering all the facts.
His Direct Line received over 2 million questions, from Russia and around the world. And he had to crown the performance with a flourish, in an "I did it, my way" vein:
"I believe that not only did I simply save [Russia], we moved away from the edge of the abyss."
The record would confirm it, compared to the appalling state of the Russia he inherited when first elected president in March 2000.
President Putin’s end of the year Q&A contains enough substance to be unpacked for weeks, if not months. Let’s focus here on our current geopolitical crossroads: the Forever Wars in West Asia and Ukraine, two vectors of the standard imperial drive, now united in an Omni-War.
Putin stated that, “we have come to Syria in order to prevent a terrorists’ enclave (…) In general, our goal has been achieved.”
Whether Syria remains “terrorist free” remains to be seen: the new, “inclusive”, rebranded as woke Emir of Damascus, al-Jolani, a Saudi national, is a certified Salafi-jihadi still with a $10 million American bounty on his head. The “enclave” now encompasses most of former Syrian sovereign territory, otherwise illegally occupied by jihadi gangs and Zionist lebensraum practitioners.
It’s important to remember that Russia first intervened in Syria in 2015 not so much to keep access to the warm waters of the Eastern Mediterranean: but mostly to protect holy Christian Orthodox sites in Damascus. Christianity was born in Damascus (remember St. Paul) – not in Jerusalem. When Putin went to Damascus, he was on an Orthodox Christian pilgrimage: coming from the Third Rome (Moscow) to pay his respects to the precursor of the first Rome, the cradle of Christianity.
It all started with Timber Sycamore
On the larger Levantine geopolitical picture, Putin is correct. The CIA invented Operation Timber Sycamore way back in 2012 to train and weaponize “moderate rebels” to overthrow Assad – spending over $1 billion a year: the most extensive CIA covert op since the jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
The UK, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan were Sycamore partners. Over the final years, the Pentagon jumped in to “prepare” Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the “soft” ISIS splinter group.
Ultimately it was nearly 14 years of toxic US sanctions and relentless siege warfare that led to the final act, complete with Ukrainian drone instructors, mountains of Qatari cash and the Turk-assembled crypto-al Qaeda infantry (no more than 350 fighters, according to Putin himself).
Now it’s a matter of adapting. Putin said that, “we have established relations with all those that control the situation on the ground (…) Most countries expect the Russian bases to remain (…) Our interests should coincide, a question that requires painstaking examination.”
He also reminded everyone that politics is the art of compromise – and Russia’s strategic priority is to keep the bases in Tartus and Hmeimim.
Putin brushed aside the notion that Russia has been weakened by Assad’s downfall in Syria, quoting Mark Twain: “Rumors about my death have been greatly exaggerated.”
Instead, he practically proposed that the Russian bases could provide humanitarian aid: one can imagine the population of a deeply polarized, fragmented Syria arguing with the Salafi-jihadis to get their share. Were that to happen, Russia would be in direct aid competition with the collective West.
The EU, via its new, deranged Estonian ultra-Russophobic foreign policy chief, has already ordered that there will be no sanctions relief if the Russian bases stay.
Erdogan thinking like it’s 1919
Turkiye is the ultimate thorny issue. Erdogan is relentlessly promoting the notion that “Turkiye is greater than Turkiye itself” – which some have interpreted as Ankara being ready to annex large swathes of Syria.
And potentially more. A “Greater Turkiye” would historically have included Thessaloniki, Cyprus, Aleppo and even Mosul.
Putin for his part was supremely diplomatic, focusing on Turkiye “trying to safeguard its safety on its southern frontiers, and to create conditions for the return of refugees back home from its territory to Syrian land. And those territories are now under more or less control of actually Turkiye.”
He also acknowledged that Turkiye has had “problems with the Kurdish Workers Party for decades. I hope there will not be an aggravation”.
Well, there will (italics mine) be aggravation.
Turkish diplomatic sources are relentlessly spinning that everything that happened in Syria was decided by the “Astana process” troika of Russia, Iran and Turkiye. Moscow keeping its embassy in Damascus and – for the moment – the bases in Tartus and Hmeimim might point to a deal.
Add to it Erdogan gleefully stating on the record that
Putin and himself are the most experienced politicians on the planet.
As it stands, all that may be classified as fog of war.
Immediately after Assad’s fall, the Israelis started bombing every warehouse holding heavy military equipment across Syria, including classified weapons. It’s unclear who provided the exact locations.
The Americans, predictably, were furious. No wonder: the lame duck White House and the Deep State were betting on transferring all that weaponry to Kiev.
The exact tone of the secret deals struck between the Astana process troika and between two of them with Israel will remain predictably murky – and the way Putin talked about them suggests that the Long Game is just starting.
Russia may not have been weakened by the loss of Syria, but quite uncomfortable questions remain. The sacredness of Syria’s national sovereignty has taken a hit. Same goes for the fight against terrorism.
On the other hand, Putin increased the tone on Tel Aviv – an extremely touchy dossier in Russia. He named Israel as “the main beneficiary” in Syria; directly condemned Israeli invasion and annexation of sovereign Syrian territory; and confessed he does not know what “ultimate goals” Israel is pursuing in Gaza, but "this is only worthy of condemnation".
'Let’s have a 21st century tech duel'
Putin all but admitted that Russia should have moved against Kiev earlier – and that the Russian Army was not fully prepared for the start of the SMO in February 2022. What’s implied is that over 10 years ago, a simple Russian police operation might have taken care of Maidan; Yanukovych could have been transported to Crimea; the coup would have fizzled; and there would have been no war.
Putin is adamant that Russia is always ready to negotiate with Kiev. The key takeaways: no preconditions; talks grounded in the 2022 Istanbul deal (aborted by the Americans) and the “current conditions on the battlefield”; Russia will talk to Zelensky only if he holds elections and gains legitimacy; and Russia will only sign peace deals with the legitimate leader of Ukraine.
A lot to unpack here. In sum: Istanbul for all practical purposes does not apply anymore - considering the ever-changing "conditions on the battlefield." Zelensky will not hold elections - so he will remain illegitimate. So who to talk to? Moreover, signing peace deals with a "legitimate" Ukrainian leader means nothing because the Ultimate Decider is always the “non-agreement capable” (copyright Lavrov) Hegemon.
All that implies that the SMO may keep rumblin' on for quite a while.
The whole Forever Wars riddle directly links with BRICS, because this is a Hegemon war against BRICS (especially top three “existential threats” Russia, China and Iran), inscribed in the Big Picture of the Eurasia v. NATOstan war.
Putin was adamant that “BRICS is not a tool for countering the West. Out work is not aimed against anyone (…) We adopt all decisions by consensus (…) this is a group based on common interests. And there is one common interest: development.”
BRICS, added Putin, is driven to generate “more economic growth and transforming the structure of the economy in order for it to be in step with the global development agenda”, positioning BRICS “at the forefront of this progressive movement”. Expect the usual lot accusing Putin of being a Davos/Great Reset shill.
Arguably the prime cliffhanger of the Q&A was Putin proposing to test the hypersonic Oreshnik against NATO’s Aegis Ashore: “Let’s have a 21st century tech duel”. NATOstan brings all their top defense systems to Kiev and let’s see if they can stop Oreshnik. Could be London instead of Kiev. Or for that matter, NATO’s HQ outside Brussels.
Will that happen? Of course not. Already utterly humiliated in the black soil of Novorossiya, collective West cowards will flee from being totally humiliated all over again in front of the whole planet.
COLLECTIVE WEST | GLOBAL MAJORITY
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CAPTAIN MATTHEW HOH: Palestinians Facing Unimaginable Hardships: A Harrowing Reality.
USA
RACHEL BLEVINS: What to Expect from Biden’s Final Month: From Escalation with Russia to Middle East Chaos.
EUROPE | BRITAIN
PATRICK LANCASTER: Why is NATO & EU information center part of Georgian Government?
AFRICA
BREAKTHROUGH NEWS: Chad Deals Final Blow to France's Military Control Over Africa’s Sahel.
NON-ENGLISH NEWS
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VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
THE NOOSE IS INEXORABLY TIGHTENING AROUND ZELENSKY’S NECK & THAT OF HIS REGIME AS THE RUSSIAN MILITARY TAKES EVER MORE TERRITORY.
