RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 13.05.2024
RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 13.05.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
Please note: We will be in a remote location for the next 24 hours.
Updates will be sporadic and perhaps absent during much of this time.
Our apologies for this alteration to your daily updates.
*** RUSSIA IS CLEARING THE ROAD TOWARD CERTAIN VICTORY ***
“Ukraine. What is the truth...?
Why won’t western media tell both sides…?”
VIRTUALLY UNREPORTED ATROCITY IN LUGANSK, 2nd JUNE 2014
A lot has been said about atrocities in the western media claimed to have been perpetrated by the Russians, for example at Bucha and Mariupol among others. These assertions are conveyed on the say so of the Ukrainian authorities. How willing though are western news broadcasters to convey atrocities attributed to the Ukrainians? The following will I think provide the answer.
If anyone wonders if they are receiving accurate coverage of the conflict in Ukraine I would suggest watching the video below of an event which occurred on the 2nd of June 2014 and ask themselves if they recall hearing about it on any mainstream media news channel at the time.
The video is harrowing to watch. The bodies (five women and three men) are real. Yet across western media there was only one single news report that occurred a day later. This was from CNN and occurred only because a CNN team happened to be nearby at the time of the atrocity and so the network could hardly ignore it as all others so obviously did.
The video below shows the unvarnished truth that was not considered newsworthy in western mainstream news.
THE SINGLE WESTERN MSM REPORT ON THE LUGANSK ATROCITY, 3rd JUNE 2014
The video at the CNN link below is the crime scene sanitised by CNN, though played straight with honest reporting on the scene not playing things to Kiev’s tune.
(There was a time early in the war in the Donbass when CNN were not afraid to contradict the Ukrainian regime in Kiev.) Watch, because it's the first and last time you will see this.
5 women and 3 men died, all civilians.
Air attack on pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk kills 8, stuns residents.
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Russia goes on the offensive: Here’s what’s behind the advance in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region.
Moscow’s forces are again attempting to take control of territories on the northern front of the conflict.
On the night of May 10, Russian troops launched an operation in the north of Ukraine's Kharkov Region. The fighting is dynamic and the situation is constantly changing, but some preliminary conclusions can already be drawn.
There is active combat on the front and rear lines of the Ukrainian army in the border area. Military facilities and infrastructure used by Kiev's forces are being hit at a distance of 10 to 50 kilometres.
The Russian Defense Ministry has announced that units of the Northern Group of Forces have taken control of the settlements of Borisovka, Ogurtsovo, Pletenevka, Pylnaya and Strelechya in Kharkov Region.
Ukrainian sources report that there are likely to be two main directions of attack: in the area of Volchansk (one of the Ukrainian strongholds from which Belgorod was shelled) and near the village of Liptsy towards Kharkov.
Also, according to preliminary reports, Russian troops are advancing near the settlements of Strelechya, Glubokoye and Lukyantsy, 30 km northeast of Kharkov, but there is no official confirmation of this.
High-precision FAB-250/500 air-dropped bombs are being actively used against Ukrainian military installations. The targeted equipment, which the Ukrainian army was covertly attempting to move into the area where hostilities were intensifying, was also hit by Lancet drones equipped with thermal imaging equipment. Among the targets were multiple rocket launchers and Buk SAMs, modified to fire Western AIM-7/RIM-7 anti-aircraft missiles.
What is going on, why is it happening, and what could it lead to?
The importance of the Kharkov front for Ukraine
Kharkov is Ukraine’s second largest city. It had a pre-war population of 1.5 million and remains an important center. The city is less than 40 kilometres from the border with Russia. On the other side, about the same distance from the border, is Belgorod, the nearest major Russian city.
At the start of the Russian operation in 2022, Kharkov was one of the first cities in the line of fire. In the first few days, the Russian military tried to enter it. This offensive was initially poorly organised, with insufficient forces – and Kharkov itself was not taken, although some units penetrated deep into the city.
However, while the regional capital was not taken, Russian troops did capture a significant part of the region to the east. The problem was that the frontline was held by insufficiently small forces, and by September 2022, a Ukrainian counter-offensive pushed Russian troops eastwards into Lugansk Region. From then onwards, the frontline ran north-south to the east of Kharkov, and along the state border to the north of Kharkov in a general west-east direction.
A positional front was established in the east. The Ukrainian army used the new configuration to launch terrorist attacks on Belgorod and neighbouring towns. Several times Ukrainian units tried to break through into Russian territory, and the city of Belgorod and border towns (Shebekino, Graivoron, small villages) were shelled.
This activity made no military sense. In Belgorod, the biggest bombardment was in the city center, when a rocket hit the New Year’s Fair and the surrounding districts, killing 25 people – all civilians. Such shelling continued regularly. Russian air defences able to intercept almost all missiles and UAVs launched at the city, but were not 100% effective. Part of the population of Belgorod and most of the people from the villages and small towns closest to the border have fled inland. The shelling is coming from the very areas that the Russians lost to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2022.
The Ukrainian armed forces are fulfilling several tasks with this activity. First, terrorist attacks on internationally recognised Russian territory are part of a deliberate strategy to put pressure on the population. Secondly, Kiev reasonably assumed that in this way it would be possible to keep the Russian military in a constant state of tension. Passively covering the border requires significant forces. Even small units conducting attacks along the border could “troll” the Russians, forcing them to cover the frontier with real military units in case of a more serious attack.
A serious assault did take place in March 2024, when battalion-level units with armoured vehicles tried to break through the border near the village of Kozinka. This failed and the Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses, but Kozinka itself was destroyed and the fighting lasted several days.
Finally, Ukraine has tried and is trying to use the border problem to promote its “proxies” – units composed of Russian citizens (emigrants and converted prisoners). The real value of these units is small, and the backbone of one of the main detachments of “good Russians” are literally neo-Nazis in the strictest sense, but the attempt to take control of at least some Russian territory and proclaim some kind of “real” Russian government there is something to keep an eye on.
What the offensive means for Russia
All of this was enough for Russian politicians and the military to consider an operation in Kharkov Region. In 2023, however, all forces were thrown into repelling a major Ukrainian offensive. On the Kharkov-Belgorod line, Ukrainian raids and shelling were subordinated to the task of drawing Russian troops there and distracting them from the main front in Zaporozhye.
The Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023 failed and the initiative passed to the Russian side. But the choice of focus is more complicated than it seems at first glance.
The frontline is very long, and in addition, there is a large section of the border where no fighting is actually taking place. All fronts have serious drawbacks from the point of view of Russian strategists. For example, in Kherson Region, the Dnepr river is an obvious obstacle; the front from Zaporozhye to Lugansk Region is very well fortified, with enemy reserves concentrated there. In short, there are no easy areas to attack. In the north there is the problem of poor communications and difficult forests along the road. Finally, Kharkov as such is a very large city, and an assault on such an urban center is an extremely difficult task.
However, Kharkov Region (outside the city of Kharkov) is quite a promising front. For now the battlefield is shrouded in the thick fog of war. But some things can already be said.
Firstly, the Russian offensive is taking place on both banks of the Seversky Donets River, which flows from north to south to the east of Kharkov. It is a serious obstacle, insurmountable for vehicles without an equipped crossing. The west bank is closer to Kharkov. Here, the Russian command may be planning to create a “cordon sanitaire” to prevent the shelling of Belgorod. The city of Kharkov itself could also be put under siege. This is a serious threat that the Ukrainian forces will find difficult to counter if the Russians move to a distance from which they can fire conventional artillery at Ukrainian positions in Kharkov itself. In addition, this offensive potentially puts Ukrainian forces in the city at risk of encirclement if the roads linking Kharkov to the rest of Ukraine can be compromised.
The offensive east of the Seversky Donets is more interesting, and its real impact on the course of the war may be more significant. Its immediate objective is obvious – the town of Volchansk. For a long time there were Ukrainian positions there from which Belgorod was shelled, and the capture of Volchansk solves the same problem of creating a cordon sanitaire along the border. However, there is more than one potential benefit. The fact is that an attack from this side will bring Russian troops to the rear of the Ukrainian units defending to the east – on a line running from the north along the Oskol River. If successful, this means that the Ukrainian forces will have to draw their flanks under the threat of encirclement and withdraw further and further south. This will not break the front, but will shift the entire war in this area.
Finally, the renewed fighting near Kharkov is part of a wider picture. Ukrainian troops are suffering from a severe lack of men and equipment. They are defending a very broad front, and the need to fend off crises here and there is leading to an accumulation of general fatigue. Whereas in 2023 the sides could not boast of any major breakthroughs, and each village had to be won through months of bloody fighting, Russian forces are now making tactical but increasingly frequent gains. In recent months, the Ukrainian army has been slowly but steadily losing scarce equipment, especially artillery. Its defences are beginning to rely more and more on drones and masses of infantry willing to stand under fire.
However, all these are extremely optimistic options for the development of events. It is likely that the Russian command will consider the task as a whole accomplished even if it is only possible to shift the front line by 10-15 kilometres (which will greatly complicate the shelling of Belgorod and facilitate attacks on Kharkov) and, in particular, to recapture Volchansk. If such a result is achieved, it will be of significant benefit for future planning.
For the side holding the initiative, an increase in the number of frontline players is simply advantageous: the enemy has to watch out for an increasing number of potentially vulnerable points that can be hit. This means that fatigue accumulates at a higher rate. Russia has long been engaged in a war of attrition, and the overall objective in this war can be formulated as creating a situation in which the enemy’s defensive line begins to collapse in many areas at once due to a total lack of men, ammunition and equipment. The opening of a new front near Kharkov could accelerate this process. Moreover, Kharkov will in any case force the Ukrainian army to withdraw from other areas, which will facilitate operations on other fronts.
Russia has spent time building up its strength and reserves. It will soon become clear how much stronger it has become.
By Roman Shumov, a Russian historian focused on conflicts and international politics.
Russia goes on the offensive: Here’s what’s behind the advance in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region.
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Kremlin explains decision to change defense minister.
Conflicts are won by those who are “open to innovation,” presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has voiced support for the Russian president's pick for a new defense minister, amid a cabinet reshuffle.
The Federation Council announced on Sunday evening that Sergey Shoigu would be removed as defense minister, a post he had held since 2012, and that Vladimir Putin had proposed replacing him with acting First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov.
Speaking to reporters, Peskov said Belousov would be the best person to deal with the financial issues now facing the military.
Belousov, a trained economist, has worked for the government in various capacities, but until now dealt with civilian matters only.
He served as economic development minister in 2012-2013 and as the president’s economic aide from 2013 to 2020, before taking the position of first deputy prime minister, which he held until May 7.
When asked about the seemingly unconventional choice to lead the Defense Ministry, Peskov explained that the “battlefield is now dominated by those who are more open to innovation and are ready to introduce them in the fastest way possible.”
The Kremlin spokesman noted that, with the Russian military budget rapidly growing, “it is very important to integrate the economy of the military into the national economy.”
READ MORE: Putin removes Shoigu as Russian defense minister
According to Peskov, Russian military spending has grown from 3% to 6.7% of GDP since the start of the Ukraine conflict.
The current level is not “critical” for the Russian economy, but the situation has started to resemble the late Soviet era, when USSR military expenditure amounted to 7.4% of GDP, the Kremlin spokesman said.
Dealing with such a situation is “extremely important” and demands an appropriate response from the authorities, he added.
Belousov is not just a “civilian person” and proved “quite successful at leading the Economic Development Ministry” before working as an economic aide to the president “for a long time,” Peskov noted.
“The Defense Ministry should be absolutely open to innovations, to the introduction of the most advanced ideas and the creation of conditions favorable to economic competitiveness."
Russian senators are scheduled to consider the cabinet nominees put forward by the president on May 13 and 14.
Sergey Shoigu was appointed Secretary of the Russian Security Council by presidential decree on Sunday.
Commenting on the appointment, Peskov said that the former defense minister would act as deputy head of the defense industry committee.
Shoigu has a good knowledge of the field since he has already been “deeply involved” in the work of the Russian defense industry and “is well aware of the production rates” required of each specific enterprise, he added.
Kremlin explains decision to change defense minister.
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VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
