RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 04.11.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
*** END NEARING FOR BOTH UKRAINIAN & ISRAELI REGIMES? ***
“Ukraine. What is the truth...?
Why won’t western media tell both sides…?”
COLLECTIVE WEST-UKRAINE <-> RUSSIA
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Russia Hammers Ukraine Cities, Scholz Coalition Collapse, German Budget Crisis; Iran Warns Strike.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU of THE DURAN Russia, North Korea deal; CASH, FOOD, SPACE TECH. Annalena in Kiev. King of Spain. Gaga for Harris.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU & LEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Stalemate over, Russia advances, EU war economy.
Is the West finally ready to admit defeat in Ukraine?
The media is changing the narrative as the proxy war is running out of steam.
By Glenn Diesen, professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and an editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal. Follow him on Substack.
The Economist magazine reports this week that “Russia is slicing through Ukrainian defenses” and Ukraine is subsequently “struggling to survive.” Across the Western media, the public is being prepared for defeat and painful concessions in future negotiations. Journalists are changing the narrative as reality can no longer be ignored. Moscow's coming success has been obvious since at least the summer of 2023, yet this was ignored to keep the proxy war going.
We are witnessing an impressive demonstration of narrative control: For more than two years, the political-media elites have been chanting ‘Ukraine is winning’ and denounced any dissent to their narrative as ‘Kremlin talking points’ that aim to reduce support for the war. What was ‘Russian propaganda’ yesterday is now suddenly the consensus of the collective elites. Critical self-reflection is as absent as it was after the Russiagate reporting, following the 2016 US election.
Similar narrative control was displayed when the media reassured the public for two decades that the US was in control of Afghanistan, before it fled in a great rush with dramatic images of people falling off an airplane.
Journalists deceived the public over the past while by presenting the stagnant front lines as evidence that Russia was not gaining an edge. However, in a war of attrition, the direction of the war is measured by attrition rates – the losses on each side. Territorial control comes after the adversary has been exhausted as territorial expansion is very costly in such high-intensity warfare with powerful defensive lines. The attrition rates have throughout the war been extremely unfavorable to Ukraine, and they keep getting worse. The current collapse of Kiev's front lines was very predictable as its manpower and weaponry have been exhausted.
Read more: Secrets and Lies: This is how the West doomed Ukraine
Why has the former narrative expired? The public could be misled by fake attrition rates, yet it is not possible to cover up territorial changes after the eventual breaking point. Furthermore, the proxy war was beneficial to NATO when the Russians and Ukrainians were bleeding each other without any significant territorial changes. Now that the Ukrainians are exhausted and are beginning to lose strategic territory, it is no longer in the interests of the US-led bloc to continue the war.
Narrative control: Weaponizing empathy
Back in 2022, the political-media elites weaponized empathy to get public support for war and disdain for diplomacy. The Western public was convinced to support the proxy war against Russia by endless messaging about the suffering of Ukrainians and the injustice of their loss of sovereignty.
Those who disagreed with NATO’s mantra that ‘weapons are the way to peace’ and instead suggested negotiations were quickly dismissed as puppets of the Kremlin who did not care about Ukrainians. Support for continued fighting in a war that cannot be won has been the only acceptable expression of empathy.
For the postmodernists seeking to socially construct their own reality, great power rivalry is largely a battle of narratives. The weaponization of empathy enabled the military narrative to become impervious to criticism. War was virtuous and diplomacy treasonous as Ukraine was allegedly fighting Russia’s "unprovoked" war with the objective to subjugate the entire country. A strong moral framing convinced people to deceive and self-censor in support of this noble cause.
Even criticism of how Ukrainian civilians were dragged into cars by their government and sent to their deaths on the front lines was portrayed as supporting ‘Kremlin talking points’, as it undermined the NATO war narrative.
Read more: The West is trying to pressure Russia through Iran, but is it possible?
Reporting on high Ukrainian casualty rates threatened to undermine support for the fighting. Reporting on the failure of sanctions threatened to reduce public support for the sanctions. Reporting on the likely US destruction of Nord Stream threatened to create divisions within NATO. Reporting on the US and UK sabotage of the Minsk agreements and the Istanbul negotiations threatened the narrative of the West merely attempting to ‘help’ Ukraine. The public was offered the binary option of adhering either to the pro-Ukraine/NATO narrative or the pro-Russia narrative. Anyone challenging it with inconvenient facts could thus be accused of supporting Moscow’s objectives. Pointing out that Russia was winning was uncritically interpreted as taking its side.
There are ample facts and statements that demonstrate NATO has been fighting to the last Ukrainian to weaken a strategic rival. Yet, the strict narrative control entails that such evidence has not been permitted to be discussed.
The objectives of a proxy war: Bleeding the adversary
The strict demand for loyalty to the narrative hides the fact that US foreign policy is about restoring global primacy and not an altruistic commitment to liberal democratic values. The US considers Ukraine to be an important instrument to weaken Russia as a strategic rival.
The RAND Corporation, a think tank funded by the US government and renowned for its close ties with the intelligence community, published a report in 2019 on how the US could bleed Russia by pulling it further into Ukraine. RAND proposed that the US could send more military equipment to Kiev and threaten NATO expansion to provoke Moscow to increase its involvement in Ukraine:
“Providing more US military equipment and advice could lead Russia to increase its direct involvement in the conflict and the price it pays for it… While NATO’s requirement for unanimity makes it unlikely that Ukraine could gain membership in the foreseeable future, Washington pushing this possibility could boost Ukrainian resolve while leading Russia to redouble its efforts to forestall such a development.”
However, the same RAND report recognized that the strategy of bleeding Russia had to be carefully “calibrated,” as a full-scale war could result in Russia acquiring strategic territories, which is not in the interest of the US. After Russia launched its military operation in February 2022, the strategy was similarly to keep the war going as long as there were not significant territorial changes.
Read more: Here’s why Russia won’t talk to Ukraine
In March 2022, Leon Panetta (former White House chief of staff, secretary of defense, and CIA director) acknowledged: “We are engaged in a conflict here, it’s a proxy war with Russia, whether we say so or not… The way you get leverage is by, frankly, going in and killing Russians.” Even Zelensky recognized in March 2022 that some Western states wanted to use Ukraine as a proxy: “There are those in the West who don’t mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives.”
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin outlined the objectives in the Ukraine proxy war to as weakening its strategic adversary:
“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine… So it [Russia] has already lost a lot of military capability. And a lot of its troops, quite frankly. And we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability.”
There have also been indications of regime change as a wider goal of the war. Sources in the US and UK governments confirmed in March 2022 that the objective was for “the conflict to be extended and thereby bleed Putin,” as “the only end game now is the end of Putin regime.” US President Joe Biden suggested that regime change was necessary in Russia: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” However, the White House later walked back these dangerous remarks.
A spokesperson for then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also made an explicit reference to regime change by arguing, “the measures we’re introducing, that large parts of the world are introducing, are to bring down the Putin regime.” James Heappey, the UK minister for the armed forces, similarly wrote in the Daily Telegraph:
“His failure must be complete; Ukrainian sovereignty must be restored, and the Russian people empowered to see how little he cares for them. In showing them that, Putin’s days as President will surely be numbered and so too will those of the kleptocratic elite that surround him. He’ll lose power and he won’t get to choose his successor.”
Read more: Will Kiev’s backers wake up to the reality of its neo-Nazi problem?
Fighting to the last Ukrainian
Chas Freeman, the former US assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs and director for Chinese affairs at the State Department, has criticized Washington’s decision to ‘fight to the last Ukrainian’.
Meanwhile, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham outlined the favorable arrangements the US had established with Ukraine: “I like the structural path we’re on here. As long as we help Ukraine with the weapons they need and the economic support, they will fight to the last person.” The Republican Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, cautioned against conflating idealism the hard reality of US objectives in the proxy war:
“President Zelensky is an inspiring leader. But the most basic reasons for continuing to help Ukraine degrade and defeat the Russian invaders are cold, hard, practical American interests. Helping equip our friends in Eastern Europe to win this war is also a direct investment in reducing Vladimir Putin’s future capabilities to menace America, threaten our allies, and contest our core interests… Finally, we all know that Ukraine’s fight to retake its territory is neither the beginning nor end of the West’s broader strategic competition with Putin’s Russia.”
Senator Mitt Romney argued that arming Ukraine was “diminishing and devastating the Russian military for a very small amount of money… a weakened Russia is a good thing,” and it comes at a relatively low cost as “we’re losing no lives in Ukraine.” Senator Richard Blumenthal similarly asserted: “we’re getting our money’s worth on our Ukraine investment” because “for less than 3 percent of our nation’s military budget, we’ve enabled Ukraine to degrade Russia’s military strength by half… All without a single American service woman or man injured or lost.” Congressman Dan Crenshaw agrees that “investing in the destruction of our adversary’s military, without losing a single American troop, strikes me as a good idea.”
Retired US General Keith Kellogg similarly argued in March 2023 that “if you can defeat a strategic adversary not using any US troops, you are at the acme of professionalism.” Kellogg further explained that using Ukrainians to fight Russia “takes a strategic adversary off the table” and thus enables the US to focus on its “primary adversary which is China.” Former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also argued that defeating Russia and using Ukraine as a bulwark against Russia “will make it easier” for the US “to focus also on China… if Ukraine wins, then you will have the second biggest army in Europe, the Ukrainian army, battle-hardened, on our side, and we’ll have a weakened Russian army, and we have also now Europe really stepping up for defense spending.”
Read more: This EU leader is a rare voice of sanity when it comes to Russia
In search of a new narrative
A new victory narrative is required as a NATO-backed Ukraine cannot realistically defeat Russia on the battlefield. The most obvious is to claim that Russia has failed in its objective to annex all of Ukraine to help recreate the Soviet Union and thereafter conquer Europe. This spoofery would enable NATO to claim victory. After Ukraine’s disastrous counteroffensive in summer 2023, it was flagged by David Ignatius in the Washington Post, where he argued that the measurement of success is the weakening of Russia:
“Meanwhile, for the United States and its NATO allies, these 18 months of war have been a strategic windfall, at relatively low cost (other than for the Ukrainians). The West’s most reckless antagonist has been rocked. NATO has grown much stronger with the additions of Sweden and Finland. Germany has weaned itself from dependence on Russian energy and, in many ways, rediscovered its sense of values. NATO squabbles make headlines, but overall, this has been a triumphal summer for the alliance.”
Sean Bell, a former Royal Air Force air vice marshal and Ministry of Defense staffer, argued in September 2023 that the war had significantly degraded the Russian military to the point it “no longer poses a credible threat to Europe.” Bell therefore concluded that “the Western objective of this conflict has been achieved” and “The harsh reality is that Ukraine’s objectives are no longer aligned with their backers.”
The Ukrainian proxy has been exhausted, which ends the proxy war unless NATO is prepared to go to war against Russia. As NATO is preparing to cut its losses, a new narrative is required. Soon it will be permitted to call for negotiations as a display of empathy for Ukrainians.
Is the West finally ready to admit defeat in Ukraine?
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Russian Forces Hit Airfields, Energy Facilities, and Oil Refinery Supporting Ukrainian Military.
Russian forces have likewise targeted production facilities and storage sites for unmanned boats over the past day, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on Monday.
“Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces, and artillery units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation targeted the infrastructure of military airfields, energy facilities, and an oil refinery used to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces, production facilities and storage sites for unmanned boats, as well as concentrations of enemy personnel and military equipment in 132 areas,” the statement reads.
Additionally, air defense systems shot down four HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system missiles produced by the US, a French-made Hammer-guided bomb, and 42 aircraft-type drones.
Since the beginning of the special military operation, a total of 647 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 35,258 unmanned aerial vehicles, 585 air defense missile systems, 19,038 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,484 combat vehicles of multiple-launch rocket systems, 17,295 field artillery and mortars, and 27,972 units of special military automotive equipment have been destroyed.
Russia's Special Operation in Ukraine
Russian Troops Destroy Ukrainian Military Airfields Infrastructure – MoD
31 October, 13:19 GMT
Other Developments
Tsentr Battlegroup
Repelled 10 counterattacks by Ukrainian forces
Ukrainian forces lost over 420 military personnel
Destroyed an M113 armored personnel carrier, US-made HMMWV, Kozak armored vehicle
Hit personnel and equipment of the 32nd and 110th Mechanized Brigades, 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade, 25th Airborne Brigade, 68th Jaeger Brigade, 35th Marine Brigade, and several territorial defense and national guard brigades
Engaged enemy forces in areas including Dimitrov, Baranovka, Kleban-Byk, Dyleyevka, Novoselidovka, Dzerzhinsk, and others in the Donetsk People's Republic
Destroyed three pickup trucks, 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, 152-mm D-20 gun, 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and a 100-mm Rapira anti-tank gun
Sever Battlegroup
Ukrainian forces lost over 25 military personnel
Targeted 71st Airmobile Brigade, 95th Air Assault Brigade, 113th Territorial Defense Brigade, and the 5th Border Detachment of the State Border Service
Engaged in areas including Volchansk, Liptsy, Udy, and Odnorobovka in the Kharkov region
Destroyed three vehicles, two 152-mm D-20 guns, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers
Yug Battlegroup
Continued to advance into Ukrainian defensive positions
Ukrainian forces lost over 490 military personnel
Destroyed a Turkish-made Kirpi armored vehicle, two other vehicles, and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer
Targeted formations of 30th, 33rd, 54th, 67th Mechanized Brigades, 46th Airmobile Brigade, and others in areas like Konstantinovka, Predtechino, and Seversk in the Donetsk People's Republic
Repelled counterattack by the 33rd Mechanized Brigade
Destroyed two 105-mm L-119 guns, two ammunition depots, and six electronic warfare stations
Zapad Battlegroup
Ukrainian forces lost up to 440 military personnel
Destroyed a tank and US-made M198 howitzer
Improved front-line positions and targeted 43rd, 60th, 630th, 92nd Mechanized Brigades, 3rd Assault Brigade, and other units in areas like Borovskaya Andreyevka and Terna in Donetsk People's Republic
Repelled four counterattacks by assault groups of the 3rd Tank Brigade and 60th Mechanized Brigade
Destroyed two vehicles, 155-mm M198 howitzer, 105-mm M119 gun, 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and British-made L-119 guns
Eliminated three ammunition depots and Enclave-N electronic warfare station
Vostok Battlegroup
Ukrainian forces lost up to 110 military personnel
Destroyed French-made Caesar self-propelled howitzers
Improved front-line positions and targeted 37th Marine Brigade and 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade in areas like Uspenovka and Velikaya Novoselka in Donetsk People's Republic
Repelled three counterattacks by the 23rd Mechanized Brigade and 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade
Destroyed two armored vehicles and four vehicles
Dnepr Battlegroup
Ukrainian forces lost up to 65 personnel
Destroyed two ammunition depots
Targeted 110th Mechanized Brigade, 124th, 126th, and 129th Territorial Defense Brigades in areas including Nikopol and Kherson region locations
Russian Forces Hit Airfields, Energy Facilities, and Oil Refinery Supporting Ukrainian Military.
ISRAEL-WEST <-> PALESTINE-IRAN-SYRIA-IRAQ-LEBANON-YEMEN-VENEZUELA-DPRK
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DANNY HAIPHONG - PROFESSOR MOHAMMAD MARANDI: GAME OVER, Israel: Iran & Hezbollah Ready IDF's Humiliating Defeat.
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PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Path to peace in plain sight - US is blind!
COLONEL JACQUES BAUD: Iran's Massive Response to Israel's Attack.
RACHEL BLEVINS: Iran Vows ‘Crushing Response’ to Israeli Attack + U.S. Deploys B-52 Bombers, Warships to Middle East.
SABBY SABS - MAX BLUMENTHAL: "Corporate Media PUSHED Israel Propaganda." (Interview).
GEORGE GALLOWAY - RICHARD MEDHURST: So much for sanctions.
Gaza Could Cost Kamala Everything.
IRAN Today Live: What's REALLY Happening in IRAN Streets Today?
CAPTAIN MATTHEW HOH: Israel in Freefall? Deepening Crisis Revealed.
BORZZIKMAN: URGENT: IRAN Put Ballistic Missiles, Su-35s, S-400 Systems, and Mi-28N Attack Choppers on FULL ALERT.
CALEB MAUPIN: What are we doing, exactly?
COLLECTIVE WEST <-> GLOBAL MAJORITY
Working With Chomsky: Our New Book (w/Nathan J. Robinson).
USA
GEORGE GALLOWAY: THE ELECTION COUNTDOWN - MOATS with George Galloway Ep 392.
THROUGH THE EYES OF... ANIA: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS/EARLY VOTERS. OVER 50 CHILDREN KILLED IN GAZA. KING OF SPAIN HUMILIATED.
Chief Dennis Fritz: Government Embarrassment - CLASSIFIED!
EUROPE / UK
PASCAL LOTAZ - IAN PROUD: The EU Is Not Worth It Anymore | Former UK-Diplomat Ian Proud.
SEBASTIAN SAS: EU In Full Panic Mode In The Face Of A Possible Trump Victory.
NON-ENGLISH NEWS
LIU SIVAYA: LA DESESPERACIÓN OCCIDENTAL TERMINARÁ CON UCRANIA: EL PLAN SECRETO AL QUE LA OTAN OBLIGA A ZELENSKY.
몰도바 대통령 선거 결과 | 우크라의 심각해지고 있는 동원 문제.
RUSSIA / EXPATS IN RUSSIA
Jeff Monson On His Decision To Move To Russia.
MAPPING CHANNEL UPDATES
Harvest Time🔥Insane Strike On The 82nd Brigade💥Russian Maneuver War⚔️Military Summary For 2024.11.04
Human Shield Tactics, Mobilization Of 160K Or Capitulation, New Offensive. Military Summary 2024.11.04
Russian Forces Flank Ukrainian Fortified Positions | 24SQKM Captured.
Battlefield Ukraine Russian Total Victory No Matter The Cost.
Imagine this is just 2 days of changes... | Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report.
Russian Forces Begin Cutting Off Kurakhove - Ukraine Needs 500K More Soldiers - Map/News Update.
VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE WESTERN WORLD IS IN DECLINE & NO LONGER ABLE TO DICTATE ITS TERMS
Empires rise and fall... but no empire ever fell willingly. This of course can result in that fall being even more catastrophic than it need be.
The regime change wars that the USA and its coalition of allies instigated in response to the events of 9/11 and which fell under the heading of ‘The War on Terror’, have been hugely counterproductive, producing a loss of influence for the entire West.
In addition to the above, by continuing an ultra-aggressive policy where it sought to make its global dominance unassailable the USA has brought into being the seeds of its future impotency.
The recent electoral results in both Georgia and Moldova strongly indicate that the writ of the West does not run as it once did and it no longer has the commanding power of past times.
The ratio of western power to eastern/eurasian power has shifted massively in recent times and is accelerating. The old order where the West commanded (or else) and the rest of the world obeyed, are over.
Whereas governments could be depended upon to condition their populations through compliant media regarding the positive aspects of siding always with western interests this is no longer the case in areas vital to the western powers.
The West’s favored weapon of choice these days (rather than the CIA) the NGOs is now increasingly blunted through the adoption of foreign agent laws. This spells the further death knell of West domination and therefore too that of the use of aggression with impunity to get its way.
Public opinion has turned against the western powers for many reasons, their bloody (and failed) regime change wars, the signs of degradation within their societies (plus increasing debt) along with the current situations in both Israel and Ukraine.
By stoking an insurrection in Ukraine and being instrumental in undermining and removing both the democratically elected Ukrainian government and president the West has only succeeded in undermining itself. Further, by unconscionable, fulsome support for the genocidal regime in Israel it has sealed its fate as a malignant force in the world. Those who are now so enthusiastically supporting the Israeli genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza are creating a pariah status for themselves in the minds of the global majority.
The West is, through its own actions, being subjected to increasing exposure to increasing levels of disapproval and outright loathing by its own hand. That internally western nations are seen to be in a state of advancing degradation regarding cultural mores, becoming increasingly burdened by massive debt and through being increasingly defeated across multiple battlegrounds and areas of western interest where prior to now it could expect an easy ride, world opinion has shifted enormously against it.
The process of declining western power is accelerating for multiple reasons, the most important being the mounting and insistent desire for peace. Perceptions have been shaped in light of all recent West-fomented wars; due to the realization that Russia and China are ascendant and can provide a safe haven for nations under threat from the West and represent hope for a stable and peaceful future.
A multipolar world where power is shared far more equally and where the West can no longer dominate, and is indeed effectively quarantined, is clearly on its way. The resistance now evident to a world dominated by the West and its allies is palpable across every major issue facing humanity currently. An end to the aggressive, interventionist West-dominated era is now quite obviously being demanded with a fearlessness not seen until now.
Multipolarity is more than a momentary trend, the determination to move in this direction has a long history, stretching back to the Fifties at the very least… and will now no longer be denied. “An end to all that” is what the rest of the world, the global majority, is at last in a position to finally and boldly tell the West. Your era of domination is over. Live with that fact, or be gradually quarantined until you can be trusted to exert influence once more, but as an equal, no more as self-appointed global dictator.
