RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 24.01.2025
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
PUTIN’S REACTION TO TRUMP’S THREATS WILL BE MEASURED & CALMLY DELIVERED BUT UNLIKELY TO BE VERY POSITIVE. TRUMP NEEDS TO DO MUCH, MUCH BETTER.
COLLECTIVE WEST | RUSSIA
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Trump Threats Backfire; Moscow: Trump Bluffing, Hardens Stance; China Saudi Ignore Trump Calls.
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LARRY JOHNSON: Trump Delivers Stark War Ultimatum to Putin – Tensions Escalate.
Trump’s Threat of More Tariffs & Sanctions on Russia To Stop The War: Will It Work in the Long Run?
by Patrick Lancaster
In a dramatic post on the X platform, former U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Russia regarding its ongoing "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine. Trump declared his intention to impose high tariffs and sanctions on Russian exports to the United States and other allied nations if the conflict is not resolved swiftly. While his statement underscores a strong push for negotiations and a peaceful resolution, the broader implications of such measures raise questions about their long-term impact on Russia and global geopolitics.
Trump’s Message: Tough Love or Strategic Move?
Trump's social media post was both a warning and an appeal to Russian leadership. He emphasized his historical appreciation for Russia, acknowledging its sacrifices during World War II and his own "good relationship" with President Vladimir Putin. Yet, his tone shifted to a firm ultimatum:
“Calm down now and STOP this ridiculous war! IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal’, I will have no choice but to impose high taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on everything Russia sells to the United States.”
Trump’s approach appears to blend economic pressure with diplomatic overtures, offering a chance for a peaceful resolution while threatening severe economic consequences. However, his statement also raises doubts about whether such punitive measures would genuinely influence Russian behavior or achieve lasting results.
Sanctions and Tariffs: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Resilience
How Sanctions Hurt Russia:
Economic Isolation: Sanctions on key exports like energy, metals, and technology could shrink Russia’s trade revenue and further isolate it from Western markets.
Currency Volatility: Increased tariffs and restrictions on financial institutions could destabilize the ruble, triggering inflation and eroding public confidence in the economy.
Technology Gaps: Export controls on advanced technologies, such as semiconductors, could cripple Russian industries reliant on foreign components.
Why They Might Not Hurt in the Long Run:
Economic Diversification: Russia has already pivoted its trade relationships toward non-Western partners, such as China, India, and Turkey. These countries have been willing to purchase Russian energy and other goods, even at discounted rates.
Domestic Adaptation: Over the years, Russia has developed domestic alternatives to imported goods and technologies. While not perfect substitutes, these efforts mitigate the long-term damage caused by Western restrictions.
Energy Leverage: As a major global supplier of oil and gas, Russia remains indispensable to the energy security of many nations, particularly in Europe and Asia. Even with sanctions, it finds buyers for its energy exports, albeit at reduced profitability.
Trump’s Plan: Symbolic or Substantive?
While Trump’s threat of economic measures is bold, its actual implementation would depend on the international cooperation of other major economies. Unilateral U.S. actions could push Russia closer to alternative markets and strategic allies, further diminishing the influence of Western sanctions.
Moreover, Russia’s leadership has historically demonstrated resilience in the face of economic adversity, leveraging nationalism to consolidate domestic support. Putin’s government could frame Trump’s threats as an extension of Western hostility, reinforcing public support for the ongoing military operation.
The Bigger Picture: Global Ramifications
Trump’s proposed tariffs and sanctions could also backfire on the United States and its allies:
Energy Prices: A reduction in Russian energy exports could spike global oil and gas prices, hurting Western consumers.
Geopolitical Realignments: Aggressive sanctions might accelerate the creation of parallel financial and trade systems outside of Western control, weakening U.S. influence.
Economic Blowback: American industries reliant on certain raw materials from Russia, such as metals for manufacturing, could face higher costs and supply disruptions.
Trump admits love for Russian people and offers Putin ‘a deal’.
The US president has urged Moscow to end the Ukraine conflict “the easy way,” threatening more sanctions if it doesn’t.
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday issued a thinly-veiled ultimatum to Russia, urging it to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end and strike a “deal,” or face new sanctions and high import tariffs.
Trump issued the warning in a post on his Truth Social online platform, proclaiming his “love” for the Russian people and insisting he was “not looking to hurt Russia.”
“We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process,” he wrote, exaggerating the estimated Soviet Union losses more than twofold.
“All of that being said, I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE,” Trump asserted.
‘I still have half a day’ to settle Ukraine conflict – Trump
Should no “deal” on the matter materialize “soon” enough, Trump would “have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.” The US president also reiterated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict “never would have started” if he had been in office.
“We can do it the easy way, or the hard way - and the easy way is always better,” Trump warned Moscow.
Earlier in the day, Trump reiterated his readiness to engage in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, insisting he’d had a “very strong understanding with” the Russian leader before. Asked when exactly the talk could happen, Trump said “anytime they want – I will meet.”
“We are talking to [Ukraine’s Vladimir] Zelensky. We are going to be talking with President Putin very soon and we will see how it all happens,” Trump said.
On Monday, Putin commended Trump’s proclaimed intention to resume contact between Russia and the US, which was halted under the Biden administration. The potential dialogue, however, can only happen on an “equal and mutually respectful basis,” the president warned during a meeting of the Russian National Security Council.
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Kremlin says Trump’s numbers are wrong.
The US president claimed that Russia lost almost 60 million lives fighting Nazi Germany during WWII.
Donald Trump’s claim that Russia lost almost 60 million people during World War II is inconsistent with historical research, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated during a regular press conference on Thursday.
The US president’s made the remark in a post urging Russia to negotiate a resolution to the Ukraine conflict or face severe economic consequences.
Moscow’s Defense Ministry considers Trump's estimate of 60 million lives lost from all causes related to the war highly exaggerated, with modern research putting the figure at roughly 26.6 million. Also, the Soviet Union included over a dozen modern states, including what is now Russia.
Trump’s post praised the Russian people for their sacrifices in defeating Nazi Germany and emphasized their contribution to helping the United States during the conflict. Peskov said the framing was debatable, considering that the Soviet Union bore the brunt of the fighting and suffered catastrophic losses in the war with the Third Reich.
“America indeed helped us, making a significant contribution,” he said. “But there is a nuance: America always makes money. It’s always about business for America.”
Peskov was referring to the economic benefits that the US gained by giving government contracts to manufacturers of the products that were then sent to its European allies as assistance. The WWII-era Lend-Lease program was grounded in US self-interest, he claimed, just like the American military aid sent to Kiev during modern times. He stressed that Moscow has fully paid off its debt from the war.
Moderating his criticisms, Peskov said Russians are eternally grateful to the US for what it did for the Soviet Union during the Second World War and hope that “Americans and President Trump will share our joy during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the victory.”
USA
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EUROPE | BRITAIN
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MARK SLEBODA: EU COMING UNGLUED - UKRAINE FRONT LINES.
AFRICA
Putin holds talks with another African leader.
The Russian president and Guinea-Bissau’s Umaro Sissoco Embalo have agreed to boost ties, according to the Kremlin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. May 09, 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has held talks with Guinea-Bissau’s leader, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, on expanding trade and investment, and boosting humanitarian cooperation, the Kremlin has said.
The phone conversation on Thursday followed on from agreements reached between the two leaders when the West African nation’s president visited Moscow last May.
“The presidents agreed to continue personal communication,” the Kremlin statement said.
The Bissau-Guinean president wrote on X: “I just had a long telephone conversation with my counterpart, the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. Our discussions focused mainly on the international geopolitical situation and on strengthening bilateral relations between our two countries.”
Moscow and Bissau have maintained diplomatic relations for more than half a century, since 1974, when the former Soviet Union assisted the African state in gaining independence from Portugal.
READ MORE: Putin holds talks with Egyptian president
During Embalo’s visit to Moscow last year, Putin described Russia and Guinea-Bissau as “good allies” and expressed hope that relations will remain positive. He said both countries have demonstrated solidarity when dealing with urgent issues, and hold similar views on the emergence of a multipolar world order and security concerns.
Putin announced plans to expand his government’s scholarship program for more students from Guinea-Bissau to study in Russia. In response, Embalo assured his Russian counterpart that Guinea-Bissau will remain a “reliable partner” for Moscow.
READ MORE: Missed this? The sneaky trends of 2024 that could flip Russia-Africa relations
President Embalo also requested that soldiers from his country receive training at the Russian University of Special Forces in Chechnya during his May visit, when he met with the republic’s leader, Ramzan Kadyrov.
The latest exchange between Putin and Embalo comes just days after the Russian leader spoke by phone with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. During the talks on Tuesday, Putin commended Sisi for his role in negotiating a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
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VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
PUTIN’S REACTION TO TRUMP’S THREATS WILL BE MEASURED & CALMLY DELIVERED BUT UNLIKELY TO BE VERY POSITIVE. TRUMP NEEDS TO DO MUCH, MUCH BETTER.
