RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 01.12.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE GEOPOLITICAL CHESSBOARD IS CURRENTLY BEING MANIPULATED BY PLAYERS WHO CARE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING FOR ANYONE BUT THEMSELVES.
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Ugly Truth of Ukraine’s Criminal Use of Chemical Weapons.
Politicization of the work of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) by the US and its allies is illustrated by the situation around the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, Vladimir Tarabrin, Russian Permanent Representative to the OPCW underscored at the 107th session of the organization's Executive Council in October.
November 30 marks the Day of Remembrance for All Victims of Chemical Warfare, which is observed annually by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
This commemoration throws into focus how warnings about Ukraine’s use of toxic chemicals against Russia’s Armed Forces are being ignored by the West. Instead, fabricated allegations are being peddled against Moscow, noted Vladimir Tarabrin, Russia’s permanent representative to the OPCW.
Russian Diplomat on Kiev’s Crimes
Russia has sufficient expertise to identify facts of chemical weapons use in the zone of its special military operation in Ukraine. It is conducting investigations as required by OPCW provisions.
Unlike the unfounded accusations concocted by Ukraine and its Western patrons, Russia operates “exclusively with verified facts.”
Cases of Ukrainian Use of Chemical Weapons
Ukraine covertly used DM-105 chemical munitions under the guise of smoke shells in the city of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk region in August, revealed Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, head of Russia’s Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops.
More than 400 cases of the use of chemicals such as BZ, prussic acid, chlorine cyanide, and riot-control chemical agents have been recorded in Ukraine since 2022.
Tests of wipe-samples from chemical equipment found in a lab near Avdeyevka in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) revealed it had been producing 3 kg of toxic substances per day.
Ready-to-use agents containing a toxic mixture based on thallium nitrate were found in a cache seized from Ukrainian troops in August 2024.
‘Groundwork’ for Using Chemical Weapons:
Washington boosted efforts to develop bioagents capable of selectively targeting specific ethnic groups, the Russian Defense Ministry said in August.
Ukraine procured hundreds of tons of toxic chemical precursors scheduled by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), according to the ministry.
Ukrainian forces are being trained to use chemical ammunition with Western artillery systems, captured documents and manuals show.
The US Pentagon, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and American biotech firms have been funding potentially illegal biological research in Ukraine in violation of international treaties.
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COLLECTIVE WEST | GLOBAL MAJORITY
Who is behind the new Syria war flare-up?
The interplay of external forces mirrors broader trends of rivalry among major powers, increasing the likelihood of a large-scale conflict
In recent days, northern Syria has witnessed intense fighting, marking the most violent clashes since March 2020, when a ceasefire was brokered with the involvement of Russia and Turkey. On the morning of November 27, anti-government groups launched an offensive in the Aleppo and Idlib provinces. According to reports, the operation involves Islamist factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group banned in Russia, as well as armed opposition forces such as the US and Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army.
By the morning of November 28, opposition forces declared the capture of about a dozen settlements, including strategically significant areas such as Urm al-Sughra, Anjara, and Al-Houta, located west of Aleppo. Additionally, they claimed to have seized the 46th Brigade Base, the largest military base of the Syrian army. Rebel sources reported capturing five tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, and a stockpile of missiles. On the same day, insurgents conducted a precision strike on a helicopter at the An-Nayrab airbase. Reports from Anadolu and CNN indicated that key positions, including Kafr Basma, Urum al-Kubra, and several strategic highlands, fell under rebel control.
On November 28, the group Al-Fateh al-Mubin announced the capture of Khan al-Assal, located just 7 kilometers from Aleppo, along with ten tanks. The rebels claimed that panic and declining morale were spreading among President Bashar Assad’s forces. Meanwhile, the offensive also advanced south and east of Idlib, a rebel stronghold since 2015. The rebels reported taking Dadikh and Kafr Batikh, near the vital M5 highway.
Over the course of three days, militants reportedly captured at least 70 settlements, spanning approximately 400 square kilometers across both provinces. By the evening of November 29, some participants in the operation even declared the capture of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. They stated their mission was to “liberate the city from the cruelty and corruption of the criminal regime,” aiming to restore dignity and justice to its people.
Al-Fateh al-Mubin launched a Telegram channel to document the operation, named “Deterring Aggression.” The channel has been cited by leading international and regional media outlets. According to the militants, their offensive was a response to alleged intensified airstrikes by Russian and Syrian forces on civilian areas in southern Idlib, as well as anticipation of potential Syrian army attacks.
Why has the conflict gained new momentum?
Before the current crisis, the Idlib province had remained the last major stronghold of armed opposition to Assad’s government throughout the Syrian conflict. The region became a focal point of overlapping interests among various local and international powers, creating a volatile and tense environment.
In 2017, as part of the Astana peace process, Russia, Turkey, and Iran agreed to establish de-escalation zones, with Idlib designated as one of them. The purpose of these agreements was to reduce the intensity of hostilities and create conditions for a political resolution. However, the ceasefire was repeatedly violated, and military operations persisted, escalating the conflict. The growing influence of radical Islamist groups, such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), complicated dialogue between the parties, as many of these organizations were excluded from negotiations and classified as terrorist groups.
Turkey, driven by strategic interests and concerns over a new wave of refugees, increased its military presence in Idlib. It supported certain opposition forces and established a network of observation posts, occasionally leading to direct confrontations with the Syrian army and straining relations with Russia. This added another layer of complexity to an already fraught situation, fueling further clashes.
The humanitarian situation in Idlib continued to deteriorate. Ongoing hostilities triggered a large-scale humanitarian crisis, displacing millions of people, many of whom became refugees in neighboring countries or were displaced internally. A lack of adequate humanitarian aid and worsening living conditions heightened tensions and eroded trust in authorities. This created fertile ground for radicalization, driving recruitment into armed groups.
Idlib’s strategic significance was also a key factor. The province’s location at the intersection of critical transport routes and its border with Turkey gave it both military and economic importance. Control over this territory became a priority for all parties involved, intensifying the struggle and hindering progress toward a peaceful resolution.
The radicalization of the opposition and the presence of extremist elements within its ranks further complicated prospects for peace. These groups had little interest in negotiations and sought to prolong armed conflict, undermining international efforts to stabilize the region. Simultaneously, internal challenges facing the Syrian government, such as economic difficulties, international sanctions, and domestic divisions, weakened its position. This likely prompted the government to pursue more aggressive military action to consolidate control and project strength.
Read more: ‘American-Zionist plot’ behind jihadists’ Syria offensive – Iran
Thus, the current escalation in Idlib stems from a complex interplay of geopolitical interests, internal divisions, opposition radicalization, and severe humanitarian issues. Resolving the crisis requires coordinated international efforts, including active dialogue involving all stakeholders, humanitarian initiatives to alleviate civilian suffering, and a political settlement that considers the interests of various groups and promotes sustainable peace. Without a willingness to compromise and collaborate, the conflict in Idlib risks further escalation, posing a threat to regional stability and international security.
Who is behind the escalation?
While many speculated that Turkey could be a beneficiary of the recent escalation – seeking to pressure Assad into normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus –Turkey’s official stance remained ambiguous. Statements and comments from Turkish authorities were contradictory: on the one hand, Ankara appeared to provide undeniable support to Assad’s opponents; on the other, it seemed reluctant to take responsibility for the unfolding events and expressed clear frustration with the actions of the Idlib-based “opposition.”
Turkey faced a critical decision: either continue to support the outdated status quo, potentially harming both itself and the region, or, in line with its public declarations of a desire to restore ties with Damascus and its commitments under the Astana process, assist its partners – Russia and Iran – as well as neighboring Syria in resolving the situation in Idlib.
There are also suggestions that the current escalation could have been orchestrated by external actors such as Israel and the US. The flare-up began shortly after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and a week following reports of Western long-range missiles being used in strikes deep within Russian territory, along with Russia’s retaliatory test of the Oreshnik missile system. It is possible that the US and Israel, leveraging the situation in Ukraine, tensions with Iran, and Ankara’s anti-Israel stance and refusal to join anti-Russian sanctions, instigated unrest in Syria to achieve several objectives.
One such objective might have been to deny Iran and its allies in the Levant a respite, opening a new “front” against Tehran and sowing discord between Tehran and Ankara. Additionally, it could have been aimed at increasing the strain on Russia’s Aerospace Forces supporting Damascus, thereby diverting Russian resources amid its involvement in Ukraine. The West may have sought to further weaken Russia’s position, possibly hoping to open a “second front” against Moscow with the expectation of achieving gains in Syria.
For Damascus, the escalation might have served as a pressure tactic to dissuade its support for Hezbollah and its involvement in the anti-Israel front. It may also have aimed to prevent normalization with Turkey and the formation of a unified anti-Kurdish (and thus anti-American) coalition involving Moscow, Tehran, Ankara, and Damascus east of the Euphrates.
Read more: Russian jets strike jihadists near Aleppo and Idlib in Syria – military
As for Turkey, the situation could have been used to exert pressure by threatening a new wave of refugees, heightened security instability, and worsening economic conditions. This would complicate Ankara’s operations against Kurdish forces in Syria, hinder normalization with Damascus, and strain its relations with Russia and Iran.
Thus, it is plausible that the current escalation in Idlib was initiated by Israel and the US, aiming to further weaken Iran and create rifts in Russia-Turkey relations. This underscores the multilayered nature of the Syrian conflict, where external actors exploit regional tensions to advance their strategic interests. The situation highlights the need for clear political positions and coordinated actions by regional powers to address Syria’s challenges and ensure stability in the region.
The war in Idlib: A harbinger of potential global catastrophe
The escalation in Syria’s Idlib province transcends the bounds of a localized conflict, serving as a stark warning of global instability. The northwest of the country has become a battlefield where the interests of global powers converge, and the intensifying violence reflects the deep fractures in the current world order. The involvement of numerous external players pursuing their own agendas has turned the region into a microcosm of geopolitical contradictions, potentially foreshadowing a broader global crisis.
The resurgence of long-standing conflicts, such as Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, amplifies tensions on the international stage. These seemingly dormant or controlled confrontations are reigniting with renewed intensity, posing threats to regional and global stability. The revival of these underscores the inability of existing mechanisms to effectively prevent escalation and address the underlying causes of discord.
Global tensions are nearing a critical tipping point, as many “frozen” conflicts begin to “bleed.” The old world order, built on principles and institutions shaped during the last century, is proving inadequate to meet the challenges of globalization, technological progress, and shifting power dynamics. International organizations and agreements frequently falter in the face of contemporary threats, whether terrorism, cybersecurity, or hybrid warfare.
Read more: Dozens of civilians killed by militant assault in Syria – UN
Constructing a new world order requires a rethinking of existing structures and, perhaps, dismantling outdated approaches. This transition is inherently fraught with conflict, as the shift from the old to the new is rarely smooth. Competing powers and blocs are striving to safeguard their interests, heightening the risk of confrontation unless a common understanding and mutual trust can be established.
The situation in Idlib epitomizes this painful transitional phase. It highlights how regional conflicts can escalate into global crises if left unresolved. The interplay of external forces in Syria mirrors broader trends of rivalry and mistrust among major powers, further increasing the likelihood of a large-scale conflict.
In conclusion, the escalation in Idlib and other global hotspots serves as a warning that the world is on the brink of profound change. To avoid sliding into a global conflict, the international community must work collaboratively to establish a new, more resilient world order capable of addressing modern challenges. This requires dialogue, compromise, and a willingness to overcome old divisions for the sake of a shared future.
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VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
THE GEOPOLITICAL CHESSBOARD IS CURRENTLY BEING MANIPULATED BY PLAYERS WHO CARE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING FOR ANYONE BUT THEMSELVES.
IS THERE HOPE FOR ANY SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM SOLUTION TO THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE?
The enmity & willingness to escalate on both sides provides little hope for negotiations seeking peace taking place any time soon. But what hope might there still be however?
In my view the answer to the situation in Ukraine would resolve itself, in anything approaching the short to medium term, with one single major change. That change would provide everything the winning side has sought from the beginning. Russia of course, is the winning side and has said multiple times what its primary concerns and goals were.
In my view the answer to the situation in Ukraine would resolve itself, in anything approaching the short to medium term, with one single major change. That change (hard to swallow as it may be for the Kiev regime) would be to provide what the winning side has sought from the outset. Russia of course, is the winning side and has said multiple times what its primary concerns and goals were and are.
The two primary goals Russia has had from the beginning are that Ukraine stays independent of NATO, and two, that the Russian-speaking majority in the Donbass be left alone to organise themselves as they see fit without being militarily attacked.
What is that route to that solution?
First and foremost we must look at what must be established before it can be effected.
The most important factor without which nothing at all can be achieved in either short or medium term: Russia has to trust that both the Kiev regime and its western sponsors will abide by any agreements they make.
The second most important factor for this solution to move forward is that the Kiev regime must fully realise that they cannot win (and, as we have heard from Zelensky yesterday) that it is also willing therefore to agree to Russia retaining the territory it has taken to date.
Both are sticking points but if they can be successfully resolved then the solution comes into play. Without them there is zero hope of ANY progress and all will be resolved on the battlefield.
Naturally, if Russia has no trust that the Ukrainians will abide by any agreed ceasefire stipulations regarding not re-arming then the ceasefire will simply not happen. If Russia manages to trust sufficiently that Ukraine will not re-arm then finds exactly this is taking place, then the ceasefire will collapse immediately. As I say, the key, indispensable factor n the Russian side is trust. The Russians have trusted before (Minsk/Istanbul) and have seen that trust cynically abused. So, any pledges the Ukrainians make will most probably have to be supervised on the ground by personnel of third party forces from NEUTRAL nations.
If the resulting ceasefire, in general, is successful, then we move to the second stage, presidential and general elections and the subsequent agreement on a permanent solution.
The only solution which can bring peace (keeping in mind that Russia is the winner of this war) is firstly, for the regime to change the Ukrainian constitution from the goal of joining NATO to a pledge NEVER to do so. Secondly, the Kiev regime must be willing to give up all territory Russia has gained over the last almost three years of war. If the Ukrainian president and the authorities under his command cannot do these two things (leaving aside the question of demilitarisation and denazification for much later) then there is no point starting negotiations, even for a ceasefire, for all will come to naught.
Russia cannot achieve its goals merely through the acquisition of more territory. Russia would have to progress all the way into the heart of Ukraine, far, far beyond the banks of the Dnieper, to attain the level of security for the new, expanded Russian Federation it seeks. (In order to so weaken the Ukrainian economy that no matter how many weapons it receives from the West it has no chance then of defeating the Russians.)
Given the size of the land mass of Ukraine Russia would be required to take this, nigh on impossible task of fighting all the way across at least 50% of Ukraine. I see this as an insurmountable barrier for the Russian military, a task that, in my view, is clearly beyond them.
This leaves Russia with having to make do with some set borders on the other side of which the Ukrainians would certainly still pose a grave danger. In my view Russia cannot go all the way into central Ukraine, therefore the fighting for ever more territory now will avail it little to nothing. The limited amount taken (not enough to wreck Ukraine to the level of being impotent) now or in 6 months, will avail Russia little regarding security guarantees if Russia insists on fighting. I see no security for Russia in battling on and on simply to get more territory when that is not going to materially help in achieving the necessary goal of security for all lands taken once this is all over. It can’t possibly take enough of Ukraine to render it as weak as would be required. So, I would recommend Russia seeks a solution based on the land it currently holds under its control and no more and through agreeing this work out an agreement of understanding that at lest brings about the first step, a stable and lasting ceasefire.
The problem of course will be the extremely thorny one mentioned at the beginning, Russia trusting that Ukraine will not re-arm and that the regime has truly resigned itself to ceasing its fight against Russia seeking to regain lost territory (even if it continues to fight for this through diplomatic means).
If the level of trust can be achieved (a very big if), with Ukraine and its sponsors able somehow to demonstrate to Russia that it can indeed fully trust what it has agreed to, then an extended ceasefire could very well be agreed, one long enough for presidential and general elections to take place. I have no doubt that the massively war-weary Ukrainians would elect representatives who would promise an end to the fighting and instead seek to find ways to bring about a renewed, stable peace.
With a new president and government in place, the ceasefire agreements can be built upon with time (and crucially, trust) to ultimately agree and fix a permanent border between the Russian federation and Ukraine. This in conjunction with a comprehensive peace treaty between the two nations that ultimately allows the free flow of civilians across the agreed borders, primarily agreed on for the uniting of families separated by the war.
Ultimately I believe that, over time (admittedly perhaps much time) a normalisation of relations, at least by the everyday folk on both sides, can be achieved.
All hangs on the election of a new Ukrainian president and government that want peace, not war. This of course hangs on enough trust and agreement being built between both sides for a ceasefire to be feasible, reliable and kept stably in place. If these vital elements are realised and held in place for a protracted, hopefully permanent basis, I would foresee a gradual forward movement to resolving ALL other issues (such as demilitarisation and denazification) over the several years following, given good faith on both sides.
This outlines the basis of my solution to this tragic, brutal and bloody war. Due to the extreme nature of the diverse fierce negativity of all that has transpired during this conflict none of this will be at all easy. After any war down the ages reconciliation in the aftermath can never be said to be an easy task. But with the required political will with the force of majority public opinion behind it, it can be done, as we have seen many times before in history. In fact it MUST be done for there to be any prospect of normal life returning at all.
