RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 09.07.2023
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
*** IS THIS THE FINAL HUMILIATION FOR KIEV AS NATO LOOKS ON? ***
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“Ukraine. What is the truth...?
Why won’t western media tell both sides…?”
***
VIRTUALLY UNREPORTED ATROCITY IN LUGANSK, 2nd JUNE 2014
A lot has been said about atrocities in the western media claimed to have been perpetrated by the Russians, for example at Bucha and Mariupol among others. These assertions are conveyed on the say so of the Ukrainian authorities. How willing though are western news broadcasters to convey atrocities attributed to the Ukrainians? The following will I think provide the answer.
If anyone wonders if they are receiving accurate coverage of the conflict in Ukraine I would suggest watching the video below of an event which occurred on the 2nd of June 2014 and ask themselves if they recall hearing about it on any mainstream media news channel at the time.
The video is harrowing to watch. The bodies (five women and three men) are real. Yet across western media there was only one single news report that occurred a day later. This was from CNN and occurred only because a CNN team happened to be nearby at the time of the atrocity and so the network could hardly ignore it as all others so obviously did.
The video below shows the unvarnished truth that was not considered newsworthy in western mainstream news.
THE SINGLE WESTERN MSM REPORT ON THE LUGANSK ATROCITY, 3rd JUNE 2014
The video at the CNN link below is the crime scene sanitised by CNN, though played straight with honest reporting on the scene not playing things to Kiev’s tune.
(There was a time early in the war in the Donbass when CNN were not afraid to contradict the Ukrainian regime in Kiev.) Watch because it's the first and last time you will see this.
5 women and 3 men died, all civilians.
Air attack on pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk kills 8, stuns residents.
…………
Lead feature:
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN
Ukr Fears Losses, Defeat, Doubts Cluster Shells, Kerch Strike Fails; Russia Accuses Erdogan Betrayal.
BRIAN BERLETIC of THE NEW ATLAS
Ukraine's Offensive Suffering Heavy Losses, Azov Commanders Return.
THE DURAN
Tobias Ellwood wants UK (and NATO) boots on the ground in Ukraine.
iChongqing
NATO Defending Freedom Or Causing WAR | The Duran | Cyrus Janssen & Reporterfy.
SCOTT RITTER
The Special Military Operation.
PATRICK LANCASTER
Night & Day On Russian Frontline Under fire With "Cascade" (Special Documentary).
GEOPOLITICAL ECONOMY REPORT w/ BEN NORTON
Iran joins group with China & Russia, calls to drop US dollar in trade.
STEPHEN GARDNER - RAY MCGOVERN (EX-CIA)
White House PANICS Over Exposed Dark Secrets.
RICHARD MEDHURST
CLUSTER BOMBS: US Sends Banned Weapons to Ukraine, France Spying Bill, Eyad Hallaq & More.
The IAEA Says There Is Zero Evidence of Russia “Planting Bombs”.
LEVAN GUDADZE
Ukrainian counteroffensive, Turkey escalates with Russia, Medvedev on Nuclear Armageddon, Ruble...
SCOTT RITTER
Ukraine cannot win this war | Russia's Breakout Offensive.
SERGEY LAVROV
The West is using Ukraine as a consumable.
THINK SCHOOL
Why is America so SCARED of Russia and China's Nuclear Gameplay?
COLONEL DOUGLAS MACGREGOR
A serious concern for the Russians.
KATIE HALPER
How the Ukrainian Deep State United Russia And Belarus.
DUE DISSIDENCE
Biden Taps UNREPENTANT WAR CRIMINAL for Diplomacy Panel.
EMIL COSMAN
Ukraine pulls out German Leopard 2 Tanks from the Front. Not seen on the battlefield since early June.
NATO states condemn US, so what? US will send cluster munitions to Ukraine anyway.
Ukrainian Forces Abandon Positions in Zaporozhye Region. The counteroffensive is a failure, so far.
UK Challenger 2 Tanks suck? UK demand Ukraine doesn't use them in RISKY operations.
Turkey violates agreement, releases Azov Battalion commanders to Ukraine.
Putin will visit Türkiye in August, Erdogan confirmed. Then fly to South Africa's BRICS Summit?
HINDUSTAN TIMES
Putin’s Wrath Worries Germany; 'Berlin Stand-Offish Towards Ukraine's NATO Membership' I Report:
Putin Aide Blasts Biden's Cluster Bombs Aid To Kyiv; Medvedev Predicts 'Nuclear Armageddon' I Watch:
JIM RICKARDS
Ukraine Was Sold Out: Biden's Failed Leadership Led to the Ukrainian Tragedy.
COLONEL DOUGLAS MACGREGOR
Talks Ukraine-Russia SMO Update.
BORZZIKMAN
The U.S. Army General Mark Milley Was Named The Main Culprit Of The Failure Of The AFU Offensive.
SCOTT RITTER
Talks NATO Ukraine-Russia SMO & More. (Questions in German. Answers in English.)
CGTN
Yellen's visit to China: Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.
ASIAN QUICKTAKE
Rise of De-dollarization. 36 Nations Join Forces to Challenge the West, Shatter Petrodollar's Grip.
TECH REVOLUTION
IT'S HAPPENING: More Nations Across The Globe JUST DITCHED The Dollar | Massive Dollar Dump.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
PROFESSOR JOHN J MEARSHEIMER
U.S. Power & the Darkness Ahead for Ukraine.
Article published by Russia Today (RT) - 9th July 2023:
Hell on Earth: A mercenary’s life in Ukraine.
Foreign fighters are expected to survive a mere four hours in battle.
The conflict in Ukraine has drawn in thousands of foreign mercenaries, motivated by glory and, in the Kremlin’s words, the chance to “earn money by killing Slavs.” However, those lucky enough to come out alive have described life on the front lines as miserable and short.
Three days after Russian troops entered Ukraine last February, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky put out an appeal for foreigners willing to take up arms against Moscow’s forces. Potential recruits visited Ukrainian embassies across the West and signed up to fight – often with the blessing of their own governments – and made their way to the battlefield.
Losses were immediate, and horrific. Two weeks after Zelensky’s appeal, a Russian missile strike on a training center at Yavoriv, near the Polish border, killed up to 180 foreign mercenaries, whose position was reportedly given away by social media posts.
"The Legion was wiped out in one fell swoop," a Brazilian shooting instructor said in a Twitter video as he fled to Poland after the strike. “I didn't know what a war was.”
Of the initial recruits who survived the attack, one Briton described how his Ukrainian commanders were “sending untrained guys to the front with little ammo and s**t AKs and they’re getting killed.” Posting on Reddit, the Brit described Ukraine’s ‘International Legion’ as “totally outgunned” and run by “a few crazy Ukrainian leaders.”
The International Legion shifted to hiring foreigners with military backgrounds shortly afterwards, and an influx of Western weapons alleviated some of its equipment issues. However, the threat of violent death has remained a constant in the lives of its members.
“I have one word to describe it and it’s just hell,” a Canadian mercenary told CBC News last May. “Every day you’re getting casualties, and every day your friends are getting killed,” he explained, adding that most of his missions in the Donbass region involved recovering bodies fallen in the previous day’s fighting.
For veterans of US wars in the Middle East, adapting to an enemy like Russia has proven difficult. Earlier this year, an Australian mercenary fighting against Wagner Group forces in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) described the Russian private military company as a “near peer” opponent to any Western military, while several Americans have reported Russian shelling as orders of magnitude more intense than anything they experienced in their previous combat tours.
"[The artillery] is nonstop," a former US Marine told ABC News in February. "It's been nonstop. All day and night. The life expectancy is around four hours on the frontline."
“This is my third war I’ve fought in, and this is by far the worst one,” another former Marine toldThe Daily Beast last week. “You’re getting f**king smashed with artillery, tanks. Last week I had a plane drop a bomb next to us, like 300 meters away. It’s horrifying s**t.”
Those behind the front are often just as likely to be killed. As many as 20 foreign mercenaries, including several Colombians and at least one American, died in a Russian missile strike on a temporary brigade base in the Donbass city of Kramatorsk last month. “If we discover such gatherings, for example, as in Kramatorsk, we will destroy them, because these are people who have declared war on us,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after the strike.
By April 2022 there were just under 7,000 foreign mercenaries from 63 countries operating in Ukraine, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. By May of this year, that number had fallen to 2,500. It is unclear how many foreigners have been killed, captured, or deserted since last April.
With the Ukrainian military reportedly unwilling to collect even its own dead along hot sectors of the front line, the families of foreign fighters can wait for months for closure. This was the case for the family of Irishman Finbar Cafferkey, whose remains were found near Artyomovsk this week, three months after he was reported dead. According to the Irish Times, “it may be months” before Ukrainian authorities return Cafferkey’s body to Ireland.
For those captured alive, the situation is no less severe. Mercenaries are not entitled to any protections under the Geneva Convention, as British citizens Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner found when they were captured by Donetsk People’s Republic forces last year and sentenced to death. While both men were eventually repatriated in a prisoner swap, the Russian Foreign Ministry has reminded would-be volunteers that “mercenaries sent by the West to assist the nationalist regime in Kiev… are not entitled to the status of prisoner of war under international humanitarian law.”
MAPPING/ANALYSIS CHANNELS
* Updates will be added here as and when they become available.
MILITARY SUMMARY UPDATE
Summer Operations | Active Defense Of Russia And Endless Artillery Rain. Military Summary 2023.07.09
Operation D-Day | Another Day Of Successful Defense Of The Russian Army. Military Summary 2023.07.09
NWE WAR REPORTS UPDATE
No update posted so far today
DEFENSE POLITICS ASIA UPDATE
RUSSIA FINALLY COUNTERATTACKS; Ukraine to stretch Russia at Bakhmut Front - Ukraine War Quick Update.
HALF HEARTED PINCER; Ukraine keeping faith in Avdiivka Offensive - Ukraine War Quick Update.
EJECTED FROM RIVER DEFENSE LINE north of Pryyutne - Velyka Novosilka Sector, Zaporizhzhia Front.
DPA WAR UPDATE
[ DPA Open Mic 37 ] 500 Days of Ukraine War; NATO Summit to be held in Lithuania on 11-12 July 2023.
THETI MAPPING UPDATE
FULL FRONT UPDATE: Zaporizhia, Bakhmut, Cluster Bombs.
BALKAN MAPPING UPDATE
Ukraine pushes in Klischiivka again [ 9 July 2023].
KEEP IT SECRET NEWS UPDATE
No update posted so far today
PROJECT GREAT UPDATE
No update posted so far today
MILITARY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS UPDATE
Battlefield Ukraine Artillery Russian God of War.
RYBAR UPDATE
No update posted so far today
M MAPPING UPDATE
No update posted so far today
WEEB UNION UPDATE
Wagner DRGs | Azov Released | Kerch Bridge Strike | Latest News & Updates 07/09/23.
Detailed situation reports can be found on a daily basis concerning events in Ukraine over the past 24 hours at the ‘A SKEPTIC’ Substack account:
Link to 'A SKEPTIC' Substack channel.
***
SUPPORTING SCOTT RITTER
I've been listening to Scott Ritter describe how things are for him and I suspect have been for him for quite some time now.
He has been doing a LOT of unpaid work with a great many interview requests coming in that he has been ready and willing to agree to. But the work where receives some pay for have suffered due to this, being left until the wee small hours of the night to complete work on.
Scott, I think you will agree, has been one of the most influential voices out there on Russia and Ukraine.
I was moved by Scott's words to take an annual subscription to his Substack account that he runs in coordination with his colleague on 'U.S. Tour of Duty', Jeff Norman. This is the main way that Scott recommends to help him with finances with which to upgrade his delivery of comment on Russia and Ukraine, via a better microphone etc. and perhaps the creation of a recording studio in his basement to create a more professional and impressive look. To invest in these things he would like to be sure that this has a viable financial future.
Would you also like to help by subscribing at one of the various levels to Scott's Substack account? I hope so. If so the link is here:
Below you'll find the edited part of the video where Scott talks of his commitments to get the facts out on events in Ukraine and of the finances that would come in handy to enhance their delivery:
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VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOW MIGHT THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE END? WHAT ARE THE PRIMARY FACTORS WHICH WILL DECIDE THAT END?
What is the most likely end game in Ukraine and what are the most important factors that will form the parameters of the conclusion that brings an end to all major hostilities?
The factors lying behind the military assets and resources of either side must ultimately bring about the conditions where one side or the other eventually prevails. What can we detect on this basis currently?
Military assets and resources
Munitions:
Ukraine/ During the announcement made yesterday concerning the delivery of cluster munitions to the Ukrainian military by the USA, mention was made of the depletion of munitions held by the Ukrainians, i.e. that they are running out of supplies.
Russia/ Despite numerous reports in western media since the start of the conflict that Russia will soon run out of missiles and other forms of munition there is no sign of this occurring and reports indicate Russia has boosted production threefold.
Air Power:
Ukraine/ The Ukrainian air force has been so depleted that during the current counteroffensive by the Ukrainian military it is unable to offer air cover. It appears certain now that the F16 fighter jets long sought by Ukraine will not now be delivered.
Russia/ The Russian air force has what is termed 'air superiority. The significance of this is that Russia can mount air campaigns with little to no fear of engagement from the Ukrainian air force. Strong evidence of this has been seen in recent days by the many engagements undertaken by Russia's 'Alligator' helicopter gunships.
Military Vehicles:
Ukraine/ The loss of huge numbers of military vehicles including the latest tanks imported from NATO countries, has required a change of tactic by the Ukrainians whereby infantry attacks mostly without the assistance of military fighting vehicles or tanks are being deployed.
Russia/ Deliveries of fresh military vehicles including tanks to the battlefront is continuing daily with a reorganisation of the production of tanks and other vehicles taking place in Russia to produce greater numbers in future.
Artillery:
Ukraine/ Ukrainian military sources speak of being outgunned by the Russian artillery and this many times over. Ukraine has no ability to produce any military vehicles in required quantities and must import them on a constantly replenishing basis from the USA and NATO nations. This replenishment is now reducing and the latest list of deliveries is the lowest seen thus far.
Russia/ Production of artillery pieces shows no sign of slowing with speedy transport via rail lines to the battlefront.
Drones:
Ukraine/ It is reported that Ukrainian drones are not getting through to their targets in most cases. Russian electronic warfare devices appear to be highly successful in causing them to lose their GPS coordinates for targeting and/or are being shot down by Russian air defence systems.
Russia/ Russia has been developing superior drone quality and destructive capacity in recent months and these drones are increasingly being used on the battlefield. Factories in Russia are now producing large numbers of highly sophisticated drones on a daily basis.
Missiles:
Ukraine/ Ukraine is dependent upon the supply of both HIMARS and Stormshadow missiles from the USA and UK respectively. Complaints have previously been made by Ukraine's two main sponsors that Ukraine is running through such missiles faster than they can possibly be replenished.
Russia/ Russia has geared up its production of missiles and has a wide range of these including those capable of hypersonic speeds. The replenishment of these to the battlefront has been made extremely efficient with a high speed rail connection via Crimea.
Military Personnel:
Ukraine/ The Ukrainian military has been haemorrhaging military personnel since the beginning of the conflict and it appears that the vast majority of the most professionally trained troops are now no longer on the battlefield having been killed or severely injured. Ukraine is now largely dependent upon new conscripts into its military who are given only a few weeks training.
Russia/ Russia has a highly professional, well-trained army with an estimated 1,4000 new volunteers entering training each day. This in addition to the 300,000 reservists and approximately 60,000 volunteers previously given training and added to the Russian forces to free up the most experienced fighters to engage the enemy on the front lines..
You will notice that all of the factors above mitigate in Russia's favour to varying degrees. It is thus that the conclusion is inescapable. Barring some massive unexpected intervention from the USA, UK, EU or NATO such as a nuclear strike, a chemical weapon attack, a strike upon the Zaporozhzhia nuclear power station or similar event it is impossible to see any scenario where Ukrainian goals are met.
What therefore are we left with?
The timeline of events is likely to follow a path not dissimilar to that described below:
1. Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia's defensive positions fizzles out with hardly any gains made.
2. Western political elites express their great disappointment regarding the total failure of the Ukrainian military to make any significant gains in its offensive.
3. Behind the scenes contacts between the Americans and Russians move toward a scenario where public announcements of ongoing negotiations are made.
4. America demands a ceasefire from both warring sides to allow negotiations to start and respite from conflict while prisoner exchanges can be made and troop rotations can take place in the absence of heavy artillery exchanges, the dead and injured can be taken care of etc. etc. (The ceasefire is only sporadically successful with many breaches reported over the week after its initiation. By the tenth day the ceasefire no longer holds and all campaigns across the battle lines resume as before.)
5. On hearing of the back channel negotiations that have been taking place between the Americans and the Russians Zelensky and his spokespersons complain bitterly that they have been excluded from the talks and that they continue to be excluded. They are impotent in regard to any possible threat they can use to stop this process and continue to fume in private and to any who will listen to them.
6. Britain's political elites also express dismay that the Americans have initiated talks with the Russians without keeping them in the loop.
7. Despite criticism expressed by the Ukrainians, British and perhaps others within the orbit of the collective west America and Russia continue over very long days slowly to draw closer to major agreements in their talks. (Assurances are given to both the Ukrainians, the British, and all other interested parties that nothing will be 'set in stone' and that they will be consulted and have a say in the final outcome.
7. a. The talks hit a roadblock that causes a delay of some days or weeks while an attempt to bridge the gap between the two sides takes place. The roadblock having been dismantled through hard bargaining (with Russia unrelenting in its demands) talks continue. This cycle repeats several times over the following six month period.
8. As the talks continue so too does the conflict. Ukraine, having achieved no significant gains during its summer offensive has subsequently lost more territory to the now advancing Russian army.
9. An interim statement published by both the U.S. and Russian leadership emerges. Both sides are at pains to clarify that it does not deliver anything approaching a final settlement but both state that it reflects significant progress and recommends that serious consideration be given to it by all involved toward an eventual conclusive peace settlement.
10. A worldwide debate then ensues with Eurasian, Asian and Global South nations along with many in Latin America urging the warring parties to iron out their major differences using the peace negotiation documents as the basis of an end to hostilities.
11. The 'Peace Settlement' documents as they come to be known recommend the way forward through an eventual power-sharing agreement between Russia and Ukraine to be fully ironed out after a complete ceasefire is announced by both sides and new elections take place in Ukraine to coincide with the presidential elections in Russia (in 2024).
12. In the run-up to the agreement that transpires over point 11. above there are several periods of hope followed by periods of great dismay and further fighting as it becomes clear that the current leadership of Ukraine refuses to countenance any loss of territory at all to Russia, holding this absolutist position as inviolate and sacrosanct.
13. The agreement to accept whatever changes may come with the 2024 election results holds while the United Nations and OSCE provide peacekeeping and observation forces to report violations to the ceasefire that is broadly holding.
14. Despite intermittent breaches of the ceasefire the 2024 elections take place and their results announced to an expectant world.
15. Putin returns to power as expected in Russia. However, Zelensky and the Ukrainian authorities in place since the conflict began are ousted by a Ukrainian population desperate to see the conflict ended.
16. The political changes effected in Ukraine bring a sea change in attitudes and relatively soon a final settlement is made whereby all territory taken by Russia since February 24th 2022 remains governed by the Russian Federation but it is agreed that progressively a power sharing mode of governance will gradually be moved toward where all sides of the Donbass population will have a proportional say and a system of methodologies where power can be shared will be put in place under the jurisdiction of the United Nations.
17. Russia agrees its share of reparations within the areas of Ukraine it has not occupied and the USA and its allies agree to assist in reparations within the areas of the Donbass damaged or destroyed between 2014 and 2024.
18. The new president and government of Ukraine agree and vote for an amendment to the Ukrainian constitution stating that Ukraine will remain a neutral state in perpetuity.
19. All extremist militant organisations are banned from displaying any regalia and from bearing or storing arms and will be subject to the law and will be excluded from all public forums at pain of immediate imprisonment.
20. The Ukrainian military will essentially be disbanded leaving only a token force performing only the most essential ceremonial duties.
21. Russia and Ukraine negotiate trade agreements and initiate the first tentative cultural exchanges that will lead in time to the softening of attitudes and take full advantage of the new spirit evident in Ukraine that clearly and without question seeks perpetual peace and a complete end of enmity between the two nations.
22. Normality between Russia and Ukraine slowly emerges.
23. The USA, UK, EU and NATO leadership lick their wounds and very gradually begin to acknowledge that their goal to retain and expand their global power was an error and begin to adapt themselves to the concept of multipolarity and the world without them as the ultimate authority deciding policy for others.
24. All the political leaders who forwarded the Ukraine conflict as a means of weakening and undermining Russia gradually lose power, most at the ballot box and others through their voluntary resignation having recognised the part they played in bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war.
25. The world recognises it is truly at the beginning of an exciting new era where the threat of interference from the western powers has been all but eliminated and through its new systems of global cooperation sets to work creating the civilisation that the most idealistic of them had held in their hearts for so long but had never had any expectations they would ever see.
