RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 16.11.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
*** TRUMP ON WRONG PATH IF PLANNING WAR AGAINST IRAN ***
COLLECTIVE WEST-UKRAINE <-> RUSSIA
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Putin Crushes Scholz Tense Call, No Concessions, Blames NATO; Zelensky Furious; Russia East Kupiansk.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU of THE DURAN: Putin shuts down Scholz during call. Elensky, Pandora box is open. EU accuses China of lethal aid.
THE DURAN: A US-China Conflict & End of the Ukraine War - John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen.
RACHEL BLEVINS - SCOTT RITTER: A Chance at Peace? Putin, Scholz Hold Phone Call.
GLENN DIESEN: Will Trump End the Proxy War in Ukraine? - Professor Glenn Diesen on Weltwoche.
SEBASTAN SAS: Scholz Calls Putin As The West Surrenders To Russia.
SEBASTIAN SAS: NEOCONS Clutch Onto Ukraine As Germany Sinks Into The Abyss.
PATRICK LANCASTER: I Found Cuban Snipers On The Ukraine War Frontline Fighting For Russia.
RUSSIA NEWS: Ukrainian President Zelensky, apparently, no longer believes in victory.
BORZZIKMAN: Ukrainian Soldiers Refused To Obey The ORDER of The Command and Started To FLEE 'KURAKHOVO' En MASSE.
Trump Team To Write Off 'Project Ukraine' as Sunk Cost - Analyst.
Donald Trump repeated his pledge to end the Ukraine conflagration as he addressed a gala organized by the America First Policy Institute at his Mar-a-Lago resort on November 15, saying that "the conflict has got to stop."
There is a general consensus within President-elect Donald Trump’s team that the failed “Project Ukraine” needs to be shut down, British political analyst Alexander Mercouris speculated on his YouTube channel.
“Overall, despite different opinions and nuances among them, they have reached a general consensus that ‘Project Ukraine’ has absorbed a huge amount of energy and resources on the part of the United States, but it has not delivered what it promised. Ukraine has not been successful on the battlefield, there has been no economic collapse in Russia, and President Putin is still very firmly in control of things in Moscow,” the expert said.
In his opinion, these people, who come from the business world in many cases, have taken a simple “cost-benefit view”, and have agreed that “the time has come to close the whole thing down.”
They don’t feel “invested” in propping up Zelensky’s corrupt regime in the same way that the current Biden administration does, according to the analyst.
“They are resisting falling for the sunk costs fallacy, the one that says that you have already invested so much in terms of funding, weapons and resources that you can’t stop now,” Mercouris noted.
Trump repeatedly said on the campaign trail that he could end the fighting "in 24 hours" if reelected; he slammed US aid to Kiev, and vowed not to put US troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Trump Team To Write Off 'Project Ukraine' as Sunk Cost - Analyst .
ISRAEL-WEST <-> PALESTINE-IRAN-SYRIA-IRAQ-LEBANON-YEMEN-VENEZUELA-DPRK
RACHEL BLEVINS - SCOTT RITTER: Elon Musk Meets Iran's Ambassador.
COLONEL LARRY WILKERSON: Trump's Team Pushing America to WAR for Israel Against Iran?
KATIE HALPER: Palestinian-American Organizer CLAPS BACK At Her Doxxers.
BREAKTHROUGH NEWS: Amsterdam Clashes: Media Ignored Israelis Chanting ‘Death to Arabs’.
BREAKTHROUGH NEWS: Jamaal Bowman: How AIPAC Drove Me Out of Congress & My Views on Palestine Changed.
THE GRAYZONE: The meltdown begins.
Will Trump bring even more war to the Middle East?
The US president-elect’s pragmatic approach and ironclad support for Israel could escalate tensions
By Murad Sadygzade, President of the Middle East Studies Center, Visiting Lecturer, HSE University (Moscow).
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election marks a pivotal moment in the nation’s history, reflecting a fierce internal struggle within American society.
This election was exceptionally challenging, revealing deep internal divisions and a public weary of traditional political structures. It represented a moment in which not only domestic leadership was at stake, but also global influence, which has been gradually waning.
Interest in the American election reached far beyond the US. Observers from allies to adversaries, from political experts to ordinary citizens, followed the events closely. While Washington’s hegemony may be weakening, its influence still spans many parts of the world. America’s hand is evident in numerous conflicts – from Ukraine to the war in Gaza. The world watched intently, understanding that the outcome would shape strategic decisions affecting many regions.
Domestically, Trump’s policies in his first term became emblematic of a shift toward strengthening traditional American values and enacting substantial change. He assumed power with promises to restore the nation’s economic strength and fortify its borders, resulting in a sharp tightening of immigration policies and a push to support domestic industries. Trump fervently promoted the idea of ‘America First’, emphasizing the need to focus on American interests.
On the international stage, the Trump administration sought to reinforce US power, albeit on new terms. He pursued a hardline approach toward international organizations, reevaluating membership terms and criticizing established alliances such as NATO. Trump consistently demonstrated his readiness to negotiate with firmness and intensity, defending US interests even at times to the detriment of traditional partners.
What, then, can we expect from Trump this time, especially regarding Middle East policy? Was his return anticipated in the Middle East, or has his reemergence on the American political stage sparked concern and apprehension?
Those who welcomed Trump and those who did not
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greeted Trump’s return to the White House with enthusiasm. Amid rising internal pressure and complex border tensions with Gaza and Lebanon, close collaboration with the US becomes essential for maintaining Israel’s position. Internal protests and a prolonged conflict with Palestine have fueled discontent among Israelis, while the international community increasingly scrutinizes Israeli policies.
During Trump’s previous term, Israel achieved key diplomatic victories: The recognition of Jerusalem as its capital, the relocation of the US Embassy, acknowledgment of sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These moves significantly strengthened Israel’s standing, opening new economic and political opportunities and enabling Netanyahu to consolidate support domestically.
With Trump’s return, Israel sees a renewed chance for robust support, vital for regional security and curbing Iran’s influence. The Israeli government anticipates steady cooperation and is ready to deepen its strategic alliance with the US to achieve long-term objectives.
Trump’s comeback has sparked visible approval among key Middle Eastern leaders. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have all expressed joy at the news. Erdogan, in particular, underscored his fondness for Trump, calling him a “dear friend” and inviting him for an official visit to Türkiye, signaling trust between them and a hopeful outlook for bolstered bilateral cooperation.
For Middle Eastern leaders, the Democratic administration of President Joe Biden posed numerous challenges. Principles such as the emphasis on human rights and social reforms often clashed with these countries’ priorities and domestic values. Biden’s approach, seen as overly critical and interventionist, intensified scrutiny over issues such as women’s rights, freedom of speech, and political transparency, creating additional hurdles for the governments of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye.
Trump’s return offers regional leaders a chance at a more pragmatic US policy focused on mutual economic and strategic interests. They look forward to his approach, free from rigid pressures and moralizing tones, allowing a focus on key areas of collaboration – security, economy, and common regional challenges.
Among Middle Eastern countries, there are also those less enthused by Trump’s return. Alongside Democratic Party supporters, disappointment is shared in Iran, where hopes leaned on Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning and offering Tehran a path to ease relations with Washington. But Trump has returned, and the Iranian authorities realize that diplomacy is unlikely to resume.
During Trump’s first term from 2016 to 2020, he solidified his reputation as one of Iran’s toughest adversaries. In 2018, he withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known as the Iran nuclear deal), which limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Declaring the deal “insufficient,” Trump imposed severe economic sanctions that hit the Iranian economy hard, crippling its oil industry and banking system. This led Iran into a deep economic crisis and prompted Tehran to gradually abandon its JCPOA commitments, further straining relations. Now, with Trump’s return, Iran harbors no illusions about restoring the deal and recognizes that sanctions will likely intensify.
Yet the threats in Tehran go beyond the economy. Israel, Iran’s main regional adversary, gains a renewed strategic edge with Trump’s return, bolstering its security stance against Iran. During his first term, Trump reinforced ties with Israel, supporting its initiatives aimed at countering Iranian influence. This support included intelligence sharing, security coordination, and strategic endorsement, enabling Israel to act more assertively. With Trump’s return, Israel gains a powerful ally, and against this backdrop, the Israeli authorities may escalate the conflict with Iran, confident that their actions will likely receive endorsement and support from Washington.
For Tehran, Israel’s strengthened position presents a direct threat. With the potential for increased US support, Israel may initiate further strikes on Iranian assets in Syria or even extend operations against Iranian infrastructure in the region to curb Iran’s influence. The Iranian authorities are well aware that a new Trump era may signal another round of confrontation and conflict escalation, with Israel, backed by the US, adopting an even tougher and more active stance.
In Qatar, Trump’s return to the presidency raises concerns, given past events under his administration. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and imposing an economic blockade. These actions led to serious economic and political consequences for Qatar, isolating it within the region.
The role of the Trump administration in this crisis raised questions. Trump openly supported Saudi Arabia and its allies, accusing Qatar of financing terrorism. In June 2017, he stated that “Qatar, unfortunately, has historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level.” This US stance increased pressure on Doha and complicated diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis.
With this in mind, Qatar views Trump’s return to power with apprehension. The authorities fear a repetition of past policies that could lead to renewed isolation and heightened regional tensions. Qatar hopes for a more balanced approach from the US that promotes stability and cooperation in the Persian Gulf.
What will Trump’s new Middle East policy look like?
Trump’s previous term demonstrated a distinctive and assertive approach to the Middle East, marked by bold actions and a notable departure from traditional US diplomatic practices in the region. Although his new administration is not yet fully formed, his past actions, statements, and campaign rhetoric provide a basis for predicting how he might shape Middle Eastern policy in a potential second term.
One cornerstone of Trump’s policy has been unwavering support for Israel. During his first term, he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the US embassy there, and acknowledged Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. These moves solidified his intention to strengthen US-Israeli ties and bolster Israel’s position in the region. Faced with ongoing tensions in Gaza and potential escalations in Lebanon, Trump would likely continue to provide diplomatic and military support to Israel, framing Israeli actions against Hamas and Hezbollah as essential for self defense. However, Trump’s pragmatism may lead him to call for restraint if conflicts begin to threaten US interests in the region, especially if civilian casualties draw international scrutiny.
A key element of Trump’s Middle Eastern strategy could be a renewed ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran. His approach would likely involve strengthening sanctions to further constrain Iran’s influence across the region and limit its economic capabilities. Trump sees Iran as one of the region’s main destabilizing forces, and a second term may mean deepening military and intelligence support for US allies such as Israel and the Gulf states to counter Iranian influence. Additionally, Trump may seek new diplomatic agreements with Arab nations, similar to the Abraham Accords, with the aim of creating a stronger regional coalition that would diplomatically and economically isolate Iran. This approach could be paired with a continued military presence in the Persian Gulf, a deterrent aimed at dissuading Iran from aggressive actions.
During his first term, Trump prioritized relationships with key Arab allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Both nations appreciated Trump’s more transactional approach to diplomacy, which emphasized strategic and economic interests over human rights concerns and social reform. Trump viewed Saudi Arabia and the UAE as essential partners in countering Iran and promoting regional stability. This strategic alignment resulted in significant arms deals and economic agreements, including Saudi Arabia’s purchase of billions of dollars in US military equipment, which bolstered the Saudi defense posture amid rising regional tensions.
In his second term, Trump will likely continue to nurture these relationships, prioritizing defense cooperation, counterterrorism, and economic partnerships. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed had a close relationship with Trump, viewing him as an ally who backed their security interests without pressuring them for internal reforms. Trump’s focus on economic ties would likely mean additional deals in energy, defense, and infrastructure, which are mutually beneficial and align with Trump’s vision of a pragmatic, interest-based foreign policy.
At the same time, these partnerships might complicate relations with Iran, as both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are committed to containing Iran’s influence in the region. Trump’s close partnership with these Gulf states might embolden them to take stronger stances against Iranian influence in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. His support could also empower them to counteract groups with Iranian backing, such as the Houthis in Yemen. However, Trump may also advocate for a degree of restraint, especially if hostilities threaten the stability of oil markets, which have a direct impact on the global economy.
Türkiye’s relationship with Trump during his first term was marked by a complex mix of cooperation and tension. Erdogan maintained a personal rapport with Trump, even as the US and Türkiye experienced diplomatic friction over issues such as US support for Kurdish forces in Syria and Türkiye’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, which led to Türkiye’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet program. Despite these challenges, Trump and Erdogan’s personal relationship allowed the two leaders to navigate several contentious issues, with Trump often opting for a pragmatic approach that avoided escalating conflicts.
In his second term, Trump might continue this balancing act with Türkiye. Erdogan sees Trump as a friend and has expressed hope that his return will strengthen cooperation with the US, especially in areas such as counterterrorism and economic cooperation. Trump’s approach might involve a continuation of economic engagement, which Erdogan values, and a softer stance on human rights issues, which he finds intrusive. However, Trump’s alignment with Saudi Arabia and the UAE could be a point of contention, as Türkiye has often found itself on the opposite side of Gulf policies, particularly in Libya and Qatar, where Turkish influence is at odds with that of the Saudi-UAE bloc.
Read more: It’s the deep state, stupid: Why US foreign policy won’t change much under Trump
Given Türkiye’s strategic location and role as a NATO member, Trump might seek to keep it within the US strategic fold by prioritizing cooperation over confrontation. However, Trump’s stance on Kurdish forces in Syria could remain a delicate issue, as Erdogan views Kurdish militias as a security threat, while Trump may see them as valuable allies against ISIS. Navigating these issues will require Trump to carefully balance US interests in Syria and Iraq while maintaining a positive rapport with Erdogan. Trump may also explore avenues for economic cooperation, viewing Türkiye as a key player in regional energy projects and a potential economic partner.
Overall, Trump’s Middle East policy will likely revolve around consolidating alliances that serve US economic and security interests while maintaining a hard line against Iran. His alignment with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE might result in a bloc aimed at countering Iranian influence across the region. Trump’s interest in fostering economic partnerships may lead to deeper integration among the Gulf states and potentially new agreements that resemble the Abraham Accords, aimed at promoting economic ties and diplomatic normalization.
On the flip side, Trump’s approach could also reignite regional tensions. Iran may react aggressively to increased sanctions and the deepening of US alliances with the Gulf states and Israel, which could spark a new wave of instability in hotspots such as Yemen and Syria. Türkiye’s regional ambitions might also clash with those of other US allies, creating potential challenges in coordinating a unified regional strategy. Yet, Trump’s pragmatism and focus on transactional diplomacy could provide avenues for negotiation and de-escalation, particularly if his administration remains flexible on tactical issues.
Trump’s second term could see a Middle Eastern policy rooted in bolstered alliances with Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and potentially new regional partners, all aimed at containing Iran’s influence while securing economic and security interests. His relationships with key leaders such as Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman, and Erdogan could shape a Middle Eastern strategy that emphasizes regional partnerships and transactional diplomacy over traditional alliances, prioritizing stability, economic growth, and US strategic interests.
Will Trump bring even more war to the Middle East?
USA
Tulsi Gabbard Right Pick to Shake-Up US Spy Agiencies – CIA Veteran.
President-elect Donald Trump nominated the former Democratic congresswoman and a 21-year army reserve veteran to oversee the bewildering array of 18 US spy agencies in his incoming administration.
"A foreign policy and national security appointment that has created considerable dissent is that of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence [DNI]," Philip Giraldi, a former CIA operations officer with experience in Europe and the Middle East, told Sputnik.
The CIA veteran said much of the dissent comes from inside the ‘intelligence community’, including active officers and former staff of organizations like the CIA and NSA.
Objections to Gabbard’s nomination have focused on her lack of intelligence experience, claiming she will "be unable to perceive problems among an unruly 18-member intelligence community," the pundit said.
But Giraldi countered that she was "smart, experienced and capable enough to gather her own staff around her that will guide her way through the shoals of Washington DC."
"To my mind, she is an excellent choice, coming from outside of the intelligence community 'club,' and could be an effective and ethical DNI," he added.
The former CIA officer noted that Gabbard is viewed as a "peace candidate" for her opposition to endless overseas wars, the US military occupation of parts of Syria and the demonization of China. But she is also known for her support for Israel, currently waging a war against the Palestinian territory of Gaza.
"It is likely that Trump appointed her to shake up the intel community, which is regarded by many as the black heart of the deep state," Giraldi said. "She will, of course, be both helped and handicapped by being provided with plenty of 'direction' by a president who is fundamentally ignorant of foreign policy and national security issues."
Tulsi Gabbard Right Pick to Shake-Up US Spy Agiencies – CIA Veteran.
COLONEL LARRY WILKERSON: Trump and the Defense Department.
SABBY SABS: Congress ERUPTS In Controversy Over Matt Gaetz And Tulsi Gabbard Appointments.
Musk And Vance Call The Overlords' Bluff! THIS IS OUR FIGHT.
GEORGE GALLOWAY: Red heifers and the rapture.
US national debt surpasses $36 trillion.
The figure has grown by $2 trillion in less than a year, the latest data shows.
The figure grew by nearly 6% from January to November, increasing by $1 trillion in less than four months. In late July, the US Treasury announced that it had surpassed $35 trillion.
The rate of accumulation appears to be growing, as it was $34 trillion in early January and then grew by $1 trillion in less than six months. The US Treasury has not officially confirmed the new data yet.
In August, the Congressional Budget Office said in its report that it expects the debt to reach a record of over 106% of GDP by 2027 and eventually rise to 122% by 2034.
The International Monetary Fund painted an even grimmer picture in its US economic outlook report in July. “Under current policies, the general government debt is expected to rise steadily and exceed 140% of GDP by 2032,” it said at the time.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who President-elect Donald Trump has tasked with finding ways to boost government efficiency in his upcoming administration, has warned that the US is at risk of defaulting on its debt.
“The interest on the debt is trending to rapidly absorb all tax revenue, leaving nothing for critical needs,” he wrote on X last month. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO said the US could find itself in a situation in which “the only thing we’ll be able to pay is interest,” if the debt keeps growing at a similar pace.
US national debt surpasses $36 trillion.
MULTIPOLARITY - RUSSIA-CHINA / BRICS
REDACTED: BRICS better get ready Trump is about to End the Fed.
GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS: Europe’s Rebellion Against Trump: Joining BRICS??
GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS: Is CHINA Prepared for Another Trump Presidency? Conversation w/ Einar Tangen & Warwick Powell.
EUROPE / UK
GEORGEGALLOWAY: Pass the sickbag Ann.
NON-ENGLISH NEWS
LIU SIVAYA: LOS PILARES DE FUEGO SE VIERON A KILÓMETROS: RUSIA ELIMINA DECENAS DE MILES DE PROYECTILES OTAN.
MAPPING CHANNEL UPDATES
Who Saw This Coming? Russia Reached CENTER Of Chasiv Yar & Western Zabalka.
Russian Military Capability Rapidly Expanding.
Zelensky Is Furious: Scholz Called Putin, Kupiansk Defense Has Collapsed. Military Summary 2024.11.16
Crazy Developments As Russian & Ukrainian Forces Step Up Military Clashes Across The Entire Front.
Kupyansk Defenses Collapsed l RUSSIA'S MOST DANGEROUS OFFENSIVE YET Starts in Chernihiv.
Systematic Collapse. Russia Opened New Front & Penetrated 21 SQKM In Chernihiv Region. Front Update.
Massive Daily Gains - Multiple Deep Russian Breakthroughs | Scholz Calls Putin - Ukraine Map Update.
VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UKRAINE: KEEP THOSE BLINKERS ON TIGHT AND STRAP YOURSELF IN, A STORM IS BREWING
‘A nod’s as good as a wink to a blind horse.’
What I would portray as an attack on the minds of western populations on the Ukraine war has been two-pronged and has been ongoing since 2014, and even now shows hardly any sign of ending.
1. Reflect nothing positive about the other side. Zero. Report only positive facts if at all possible regarding our side.
2. Maintain blinkers at all times and exercise wishful thinking at every juncture to maintain morale.
From winter 2013 to now this is virtually all I have seen from the western news media and political elites. Neither has any stomach for reflecting actuality. The modus operandi is to keep one side of the equation constantly mind, screen, print-redacted while talking among themselves about how Ukraine, will, is and can win.
The calculation seems to be that it is far better to do this and then only gradually find things have gone awry and Russia is winning/has won, than spoil everyone’s day and damage morale by reflecting how things truly are.
Perhaps those in this ‘war mode’ type of thinking are correct to do things this way. Who likes to hear bad news? Almost no one, especially when there is very, very near nothing you can do to change things. Only a very small minority among us have a burning desire to know the whole truth. They say ignorance is bliss. Well, maybe so. But there is a side to that ignorance which, for the last almost three years, has had consequences that fall very short of being blissful.
It could be argued that the Ukrainians had a chance at the beginning. While Zelensky and co. had been thoroughly spooked by the surge of Russian troops into Ukraine including very near to the capital and had sent a delegation to engage in peace talks, Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev with a join message from the western powers. That message was that the regime should abandon those peace talks and that if it did so the West would back it with all the financial and military support it would need and provide it all the way to the certain victory it would then win. As we know, Zelensky took the offer, abandoned the peace talks and proceeded to wage war against Russia confident he had the West’s full backing.
Foolishly in retrospect, Russia had withdrawn its troops from the vicinity of Kiev as a goodwill gesture when peace talks began. Those troops were there only to intimidate Zelensky and co. into fulfilling Ukraine’s obligations as agreed in the UN-ratified Minsk Accords. So, with Zelensky’s team having initialled a working document the Russians decided on this reciprocal gesture. A big mistake as things turned out. It appears that Putin and his closest advisers had not calculated on the western powers caring enough about the Donbass region to be willing to wage war over it. Hadn’t Merkel, Hollande, Macron, Poroshenko and Zelensky all agreed via the Minsk Accords that they were the only peaceful way forward and wasn’t Russia entitled to force the issue when Zelensky, after six years of the process with an agreed, UN-ratified outcome suddenly said he was no longer interested in it?
Anyway, war it was. Not chosen by Russia. Except extremely reluctantly and even then halting within a couple of months to stop and try to agree to peace. Russia never wanted things to turn out this way. The idea was to see the Russian-speaking majority in the Donbass free of the shelling they were under and had, by 2022, been under for eight solid years. Zelensky’s shrug of the shoulders and goodbye to all that regarding the Minsk Accords, so hard won over the previous six plus years, and then a couple of weeks before Russia invaded saying he had a mind to regain Ukraine’s nuclear status, did it for Putin it seems. Having NATO on Russia’s doorstep would be intolerable causing endless disquiet and without doubt campaigns designed to disrupt, destabilise, divide and fragment Russia from close quarters. What do you think Russia saw in the encroachment of NATO, a NATO that relatively recently bombed the hell out of Libya and that during the Cold War had been the Soviet Union’s biggest threat? Not to mention that the Cold War mentality within not only NATO but the entire military-intelligence-political infrastructure of the West could hardly be trusted to have melted away when that war was supposedly over?
But none of the above plays any part in the narratives heard from official sources in the West. Instead we heard the same phrase repeated over and over, “Russia made an unprovoked attack on Ukraine”. Unprovoked? Yeah, right. Putin, the evil Putin, just woke up one morning, mind filled with his latest dream of a resurrected Soviet Union, back in all its glory, immediately reached for a map and focused his demonic eyes on Ukraine. Again, yeah right. But this kind of image works well, as George W. Bush found out after 9/11 in creating a believable, simplistic narrative, “They’re jealous of our freedoms”. How many new Hitlers has this methodology created over the years? You know their names. No need to mention them again here. This while the automatic opposite is conferred on us, the spotless heroes, the guys with the ‘right stuff’, modern day real life honest-to-goodness heroes who wouldn’t normally hurt a fly, believe in democracy, freedom and human rights and never do anything wrong on purpose. Ever.
War Mode
War mode is where you and your allies never do anything wrong and your enemy is constantly doing wrong for totally evil reasons and is so very bad, unrecoverably and irredeemably so that everyone should castigate, oppose him and never have anything whatsoever to do with him. It’s just as the Bible says, good and evil, light and dark, black and white, right and wrong… and nothing in between. This makes things nice and simple for those folks who want an easy answer to settle any confusion and then get right back to being blissfully ignorant. After perhaps giving their blessing to kill all those bad folks and make things better as soon as possible, will you? And oh yes, that Saint Zelensky and those pure as the driven snow Ukrainians, here’s a bunch of my hard-won currency for those poor vulnerable souls who are being cruelly victimised by those barbaric and Hell-bound Russians!
The Consequences
So, TV news, magazines, newspapers and books all tell the same story. Putin and his minions are all evil and here is the (evidence-free) storyline to prove it. Ukraine is winning. The Russian troops are badly trained, badly led, are dying in their thousands daily let down by a diminishing number of shells and artillery. More storylines depict valiant Ukrainian troops pushing the “meat wave” Russian attacks back and look at this burning tank and listen to how it’s all going wrong for the Russians. Except it wasn’t and hasn’t been for a long time now. Yet this can’t be said, remember? In ‘war mode’ you mustn’t mention the enemy’s gains. Keep those blinkers on tight. All is well. As in Afghanistan where reports up the line were always given a positive spin somehow or other… for twenty years or so until the truth could no longer be concealed, and then the panic-driven imperative was just to get the hell out of there.
The consequences for Ukraine of all the wishful thinking, deception, blatant mis- and disinformation, and blatant distortion of reality and war-mode morale-motivating was that ever more Ukrainians (and Russians) would die needlessly. By early 2023 at the very latest it had become clear that neither was the Russian economy imploding nor were its trading partners ostracising it. No Maidan II had taken place to oust the “evil” Putin. In fact his popularity was higher than ever, especially since the war was going well and Russia’s economic growth figures were excellent. At that point, whether it was toward the end of 2022 or sometime in 2023, that was when the western powers had to act to halt their project and deliver the extremely bad news to Zelensky that their calculations had been all wrong and that Russia was clearly NOT going to be beaten, no matter what they did now. But no, that was an uncomfortable thought. Anathema. Better to double down and hope something unexpected turns up. That unexpected thing never did turn up, no matter what “game changing” weapon they provided and no matter how many billions were provided.
So, the dying has gone on, the needless deaths of hundreds of thousands, the horrendous injury to many more. Without anything approaching real hope or realistic expectations. In Ukraine quite old men were sent, hardly trained to die as cannon-fodder on the front lines. Even in at least one case a young man with Down Syndrome. Women also have not been spared. And in recent times medics, pilots and air defence technicians. For a good six months Zelensky’s thugs in uniform have been dragging people bodily off the streets to be dragooned into the army given a few weeks training then sent to their deaths. (No son or daughter of the wealthier, or more elite members of western Ukraine society can be seen at the front, a point that has begun to rankle among those who have been.) Desertions are becoming ever more frequent and who can blame them? It’s not so easy, nor is it at all a guaranteed route back to family and friends. Death squads whose task is to capture and shoot such people and indeed those who refuse orders, even if those orders are suicidal, are never far away. These are composed of the ultrnationalists, often bearing swastika tattoos. No excuses are accepted by such as those.
War is a racket as Smedley D. Butler said and wrote. And never was there such an unconscionably callous, cynical and dishonest racket as this one. Western populations were treated to ‘The Mushroom Syndrome’ (Kept in the dark and fed a load of shit.) and a Ukrainian population treated as sheep to the slaughter… all for the sake of what? The unrelenting ambition of the western powers to remain top dogs and do whatever they deemed necessary to undermine those who might rival them in terms of power and influence. The full horror of what has happened and that is continuing to happen will not dawn on western populations for a while yet. But that day is coming. Nothing now can stop it. But meanwhile the mushrooms will continue to be fed in their dark domain. Even while Saint Zelensky behinds to lose his sheen and shows evidence of tarnish here and there, even when seen through Ukrainian eyes. The day of revelation is coming. Its arrival is certain. But the blissfully ignorant needn’t worry too much. A story of Ukrainian winning and saving Europe from Russia by preserving Ukraine will be spun, even when Russia never had the ambition of taking anything more than Crimea at first and even after, a few Russian-speaking regions of the east. But that WILL be the story. The Russians were defeated. They were unable to take the whole of Ukraine for themselves. We won. Zelensky won. The West won. Even Biden won. Ukraine survived. All is well.
We have made it safe for you to go back to your blissful sleep.
Goodnight and sleep well… while you can.
