RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 28.11.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
HOW FAR IS THE WEST WILLING TO GO IN ITS ATTEMPTS TO PROVOKE THE RUSSIANS INTO A RETALIATORY ESCALATION THEY CAN EXPLOIT?
COLLECTIVE WEST | RUSSIA
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Putin: Oreshnik Strike Coming, Hints Kiev Decapitation Strike, Zelensky Usurper Trump Picks Kellogg.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU of THE DURAN: PUTIN, decision-making centers are targets. US wants Ukraine to lower military age. Ruble weakens.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: RUSSIA prepares big retaliation.
Putin Warns of Retaliation if Nuclear Weapons Transferred to Ukraine.
Russia will use all means of destruction at its disposal if Ukraine gets nuclear weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at his press conference following the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Kazakhstan.
"In this case, we will take and use all, I want to emphasize, exactly all means of defeat available to Russia. Everything, we will not allow this," Putin pointed out, commenting on possible future Russian actions in case Ukraine has nuclear weapons.
The president also noted that Russia will not allow Ukraine to obtain nuclear weapons.
"What do you think, at the level of common sense? If the country with which we are essentially fighting now becomes a nuclear power, what should we do? In this case, we will take and use all, I want to emphasize this, exactly all the means of defeat available to Russia - everything. We will not allow this. We will watch their every move," Putin told reporters when asked about Russia's reaction to the possible transfer of nuclear weapons to Kiev.
Russia will respond to acts of aggression, there will be a different tool for each target in Ukraine, Russian troops will not shoot at sparrows from a cannon, President Putin emphasized.
"I want to say once again now, of course, we will respond to such acts of aggression against the Russian Federation, how and when, with what weapons - it will depend on those objects of defeat, which will be chosen by the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense, because for each object will be used its own tool suitable for these purposes.... Well, let's say, it is pointless to strike a high-precision hypersonic missile at a seemingly insignificant target, small in volume, because it is like shooting sparrows with a cannon," he added said.
Oreshnik Missile: Putin Unveils New Details of Its Destructive Power
Last week, the New York Times reported that some US and European officials were allegedly proposing the return of nuclear weapons to Ukraine.
Discussions about the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine are irresponsible, and this is said by those who have a poor understanding of reality, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later commented.
On November 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the updated nuclear doctrine. The document's main principle states that the use of nuclear weapons is an extreme measure to protect the country's sovereignty. The doctrine expands the category of states and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence.
The Russian president compared the force of an Oreshnik strike to that of a meteorite, saying it could bust through fortified structures buried deep underground, leaving a trail of destruction "three to flour floors down."
"The damage it deals is very serious. Everything located at the epicenter of the strike turns to ashes," Putin said.
Putin said that the high-precision weapon performed well in the live-fire tests, doing what its creators wanted it to do. The weapon is being tested to improve its performance, he added.
"They can, of course, make it more powerful but the important thing is that the main test model has been created. It performs as planned by its creators. It is a high-precision weapon," Putin pointed out.
This means war with NATO: Are US Tomahawk missiles coming to Ukraine?
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly must know its call to supply Kiev with medium-range missiles would provoke a direct war with Russia.
By Ilya Kramnik, military analyst, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council and researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations
The guided-missile cruiser USS Monterey (CG 61) fires a Tomahawk land attack missile.
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s resolution on Wednesday calling for Ukraine to be supplied with medium-range missiles — defined by the now-defunct INF Treaty as those with ranges between 1,000 and 5,500 kilometers — is a significant development, though not a final decision by the bloc or any national government.
If such a decision is made, the options for providing these missiles to Ukraine remain limited. The only readily available medium-range missile system in the West is the US-made Tomahawk, a weapon that has already been used in various global conflicts.
Currently, the only ground-based launcher systems capable of firing these missiles are the Mk 70 and the MRC Typhon, both based on the Mk 41 shipborne launching system, with only minor operational differences between them.
But will these systems be transferred to Ukraine? The likely goal of America’s Biden administration needs careful consideration. The aim cannot be to decisively end the war in Ukraine, as the existing stock of Tomahawks is insufficient to achieve that objective.
Read more: Fyodor Lukyanov: Biden is trying to throw Trump under the Ukrainian bus
Even with a few dozen Tomahawks potentially being transferred to Kiev, such an action would lead to a significant escalation, likely provoking a strong response from Russia — possibly bringing the US and NATO into direct confrontation with Moscow, especially given the inevitable involvement of US military personnel in deploying these weapons.
Some experts speculate that this move is part of a larger strategy by the Biden administration to “complicate matters as much as possible” in an effort to make any future peace talks — particularly those under a potential Trump administration — more difficult to pursue.
As an alternative, Washington could consider providing JASSM-ER air-launched missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 kilometers and can be deployed from F-16 fighter jets. However, this too would do little to shift the balance of the conflict. The number of available JASSM-ERs would be far too small to lead to a Ukrainian victory, and their use would again risk escalating the conflict, with unpredictable consequences. Moreover, such a transfer would be impossible without continued US technical support.
Do NATO’s leaders understand the risks of such actions? Surely they must. So why push for such a resolution? The NATO Parliamentary Assembly, though influential, is one of the least powerful branches of the alliance. Nonetheless, its actions appear to follow the larger direction set by NATO’s leadership, often without the full weight of strategic consequences being considered.
Biden pushing Ukraine to force teenagers to war – AP
The outgoing White House team reportedly wants Vladimir Zelensky to remove his objections to conscripting the country’s youth.
President Joe Biden’s outgoing US administration is urging Ukraine to lower the country’s conscription age to 18, in a desperate bid to increase its military ranks, the Associated Press (AP) reported on Wednesday.
A senior US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told the news agency that the White House believes the move is essential in order to bolster Kiev’s fighting capabilities.
Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has previous pledged not to force his country’s youngest adult men to enlist.
“The pure math is that Ukraine needs more troops,” the official told the agency. “We are talking about increasing the pool of fighting-age men to sustain the fight.”
Ukraine’s lowest conscription age is currently set at 25, but the Biden administration believes lowering the age to 18 will help meet the urgent need for soldiers, the agency added. According to the source, Ukraine has indicated it needs at least 160,000 more troops, but the US government estimates that even this number may not be enough.
Read more: Ukraine ‘out of willing recruits’ – Economist
More than one million Ukrainians are already enlisted in uniform, including in the National Guard and other units. However, American officials have warned that the existing manpower is not enough to fend off Russia’s increasing military pressure, particularly in areas like the Kursk border region, which Ukraine invaded earlier this year.
The Biden administration has committed over $56 billion in aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its offensive in February 2022. The senior official told the agency however that Ukraine has the necessary weaponry and now needs to prioritize increasing its troop numbers.
“The administration is sharpening its viewpoint,” they added. “It’s about getting the numbers up. The weapons are there, but Ukraine’s troop levels need to match the scale of the challenge.”
This push for more soldiers comes as Kiev faces growing divisions amongst its West European backers, with Germany, France and Britain at odds over long range strikes into Russia and countries such as Slovakia and Hungary calling for peace talks. The White House is reportedly particularly concerned about the strain on Ukraine’s military as it continues to occupy Russian territories and attempt to repel Moscow’s growing advances.
While lowering the conscription age is a sensitive topic, it is believed to be necessary to ensure that Ukraine remains competitive against Russia’s much greater resources, the official said, according to AP.
READ MORE: ‘Almost no chance of survival’ – Ukraine’s ex-top general tells troops
“Ukraine needs more boots on the ground…We’re talking about the survival of the country, and the numbers just aren’t there yet.”
Incoming US President Donald Trump has pledged to end the conflict as soon as he takes office.
DMITRY POLYANSKY: Russia has warned you! Wait for our response!
LARRY JOHNSON: PUSHING THE EDGE: US, NATO, and the Path to War with Russia.
PROFESSOR JOHN J MEARSHEIMER: Ignore Putin at Your Peril.
SEBASTIAN SAS: Ukraine Suffers CATASTROPHIC Losses As The Narrative Goes On.
MILLENNIUM 7: The Oreshnik Missile: What’s Changed Since the Attack on Dnipro.
PHIL GIRALDI: The US Attacks Russia, Again.
DANIEL DAVIS: Biden races to spend Ukraine War Cash before Trump‘s arrival - Why?
LEVAN GUDADZE: Large-scale missile strike - Ukraine. West's nuclear blackmail. Terrorist offensive - Syria. Ruble.
Who is Trump's Pick for Ukraine Envoy Keith Kellogg?
US President-elect Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he nominated General Keith Kellogg to serve as presidential assistant and special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.
"I am very pleased to nominate General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Keith has led a distinguished Military and Business career, including serving in highly sensitive National Security roles in my first Administration," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
What's known about Keith Kellogg?
Kellogg is a highly decorated, retired three-star US Army general who is said to have extensive military and international affairs experience
His last military position before his 2003 retirement was on the Joint Chiefs of Staff as director of command, control, communications and computers. He also served in this capacity during the 9/11 terror attack.
Most recently, Kellogg served as national security advisor to former Vice President Mike Pence and in a number of other positions during Trump’s first tenure
In April, he co-authored research that advocated a peace settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and proposed conditioning the provision of military supplies to Ukraine on the Kiev regime's participating in peace talks with Russia. It also called for enabling the Kiev regime to negotiate with Russia "from a position on strength" and discussed "placing levies on Russian energy sales to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction."
Kellogg stated in February that Trump's return to the White House may lead to the fact that some NATO members, whose defense spending does not reach the required 2% of GDP, will lose the right to Article 5 protection in the event of an external attack. He also said that if Trump wins the election, he can convene a NATO summit in June 2025 to discuss the future of the alliance. According to Kellogg, NATO could become a "tiered alliance" in which some members enjoy greater protection depending on their compliance with the alliance's founding articles.
Warning to Kiev and missile revelations: Key takeaways from Putin’s CSTO summit address.
The Russian president used the military alliance’s annual meeting to clarify crucial points about the current standoff with Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed key military and political issues to allies during his speech at the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Thursday.
The CSTO military alliance comprises Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Putin’s remarks provide new insights into Russia’s military strategies and objectives, particularly regarding Ukraine.
Here are the key takeaways from his address:
Ukraine has launched attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg
Kiev has “repeatedly attempted” to strike Russia’s two largest cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg, Putin stated, pointing to Russia’s justification for retaliatory military actions. He warned that such attacks by Ukraine would only further escalate the situation.
‘Decision-making centers’ in Kiev could become targets for Oreshnik strikes
Putin indicated that Russia would hit key Ukrainian strategic operational centers using its new hypersonic Oreshnik missile system, if necessary. “Military facilities, defense industry enterprises, and decision-making centers in Kiev may become targets for strikes. These will be selected based on the nature of the threats posed by Ukraine to Russia,” he said.
According to Putin, the Oreshnik missile has no equivalent in the world, and its testing and deployment is a response to continued Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian territory.
Russia already has hypersonic weapons ready for use
Putin confirmed that Russia has multiple Oreshnik missile systems ready for deployment. “We have several ready-to-use products of this kind available today,” he remarked, highlighting Moscow’s advanced hypersonic missile capabilities.
The Russian leader described the Oreshnik system as operating at speeds up to Mach 10 with a destructive power comparable to that of nuclear weapons, making it highly effective against even deeply protected targets.
The system is one of Russia’s most advanced weapons, and many experts believe its deployment could significantly alter the balance of power in the Ukraine conflict.
Read more: Ukraine settlement ‘long way off’ – Lavrov
Russia has a significant missile production advantage over NATO
Putin stressed Moscow’s overwhelming missile production capacity, declaring that “Russia produces ten times more long-range weapons than all NATO countries combined.”
He added that Russia would accelerate manufacturing in 2025, when “production will increase by another 25-30%,” emphasizing the scale of the country’s military-industrial capacity.
‘Illegitimate’ authorities in Kiev have no right to give orders to the Ukrainian armed forces
In a pointed political statement, Putin declared that the Ukrainian government under Vladimir Zelensky is illegitimate due to the expiration of his presidential term last summer.
“The authorities in Kiev are usurpers of power,” he said.
This reflects Russia’s growing concerns over the legitimacy of Ukraine’s government and leadership. “From a legal point of view, the Ukrainian authorities no longer have the right to command the armed forces,” Putin stated.
Zelensky has refused to hold fresh elections. An opinion poll commissioned last week by the American Political Services international consulting firm showed that only 16% of Ukrainians would vote for him in a fresh contest.
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COLLECTIVE WEST | BRICS
China could devalue yuan to spite Trump – JP Morgan.
Such a move would be a response to US tariff hikes, analysts believe.
An anticipated shift in trade policy during Donald Trump’s second term as US president, including a drastic hike in tariffs on Chinese products, could see the yuan depreciate by up to 15%, according to JPMorgan Chase, as cited by Bloomberg.
In a note dubbed “Bracing for a storm” seen by the outlet, the analysts projected US import taxes on Chinese goods to be raised to 60% from the current 20% mark, with fresh levies to also hit imports from Malaysia and Vietnam.
The Chinese government could devalue the yuan in response, and impose retaliatory tariffs to support the national economy, the strategists suggested , forecasting that China’s GDP growth next year coudl slip nearly one point to 3.9%, in spite of the possible measures.
JPMorgan highlighted that a potential devaluation of the yuan by 10-15% is “significantly less than the 28-30% that could be expected if China’s central bank were to rehearse the 2018-19 playbook, when it allowed currency depreciation to offset 70% of the rise in US tariffs.” In 2018, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 20% from 3%.
Earlier this month, the yuan fell to its weakest level against the dollar since late 2023 amid uncertainty over Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. On Thursday, the Chinese currency traded at nearly 7.25 yuan to the greenback.
READ MORE: Trump vows to slap new tariffs on key US trading partners
Earlier this week, Trump – who will take office on January 20 – pledged to introduce 25% import duties on all products from Canada and Mexico, along with increasing tariffs on Chinese imports to 30%.
JPMorgan expects emerging economies, particularly manufacturing exporters such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Mexico, to be the hardest-hit by a US-China trade war. The analysts stressed that the affected states are likely to lose global market share, as Beijing would redirect exports toward other emerging markets. India would feel the least impact, the economists predict.
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USA
Trump is ‘not safe’ – Putin.
The US President-elect and his family were subjected to “absolutely uncivilized methods” during the election campaign, Vladimir Putin has said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in Astana, Kazakhstan, November 28, 2024.
US President-elect Donald Trump is “not safe,” Russian President Vladimir Putin believes.
The Russian president made the remarks on Thursday at a press conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, following a two-day Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit.
Putin said he was astonished by the way the US election campaign had unfolded, citing the “absolutely uncivilized methods used to battle against Trump, including repeated assassination attempts.”
“In my opinion, he is not safe now,” Putin emphasized, noting that “various incidents have happened in US history.”
Russia’s president praised Trump as an experienced and intelligent politician, saying he hopes the president-elect is “cautious and understands this.”
Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13 during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, when a bullet fired from around 150 meters away grazed his ear. The Secret Service responded by taking down the shooter, who was later identified as 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, a resident of a suburb of nearby Pittsburgh.
Another would-be assassin, Ryan Routh, was arrested in September after he set up an ambush at a Florida golf course belonging to Trump.
READ MORE: Man arrested for threatening to kill Trump – media
On Wednesday, ABC News reported, citing court documents, that US federal authorities have arrested an Arizona man who allegedly threatened to kill Trump and his family via a series of Facebook videos, which he had been posting on a “near daily basis.”
Putin said he was even more astonished that Trump’s political opponents had targeted the Republican’s family and children.
He called such behavior “revolting” and indicative of the US political system’s decline, noting that even criminal groups would not resort to such methods.
Putin said he couldn’t rule out that the Biden administration has been trying to create difficulties for Trump’s relations with Russia.
Nevertheless, Moscow is “ready for dialogue with the United States, including with the future administration,” Putin stressed.
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VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
HOW FAR IS THE WEST WILLING TO GO IN ITS ATTEMPTS TO PROVOKE THE RUSSIANS INTO A RETALIATORY ESCALATION THEY CAN EXPLOIT?
