RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 13.04.2024
RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 13.04.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
Please note: We will be in Italy for the next two weeks.
Updates will be sporadic and perhaps absent during much of this time.
Our apologies for this alteration to your daily updates.
*** ZELENSKY SHOULD LISTEN TO RUSSIA’S ULTIMATUM - BUT WON’T ***
“Ukraine. What is the truth...?
Why won’t western media tell both sides…?”
VIRTUALLY UNREPORTED ATROCITY IN LUGANSK, 2nd JUNE 2014
A lot has been said about atrocities in the western media claimed to have been perpetrated by the Russians, for example at Bucha and Mariupol among others. These assertions are conveyed on the say so of the Ukrainian authorities. How willing though are western news broadcasters to convey atrocities attributed to the Ukrainians? The following will I think provide the answer.
If anyone wonders if they are receiving accurate coverage of the conflict in Ukraine I would suggest watching the video below of an event which occurred on the 2nd of June 2014 and ask themselves if they recall hearing about it on any mainstream media news channel at the time.
The video is harrowing to watch. The bodies (five women and three men) are real. Yet across western media there was only one single news report that occurred a day later. This was from CNN and occurred only because a CNN team happened to be nearby at the time of the atrocity and so the network could hardly ignore it as all others so obviously did.
The video below shows the unvarnished truth that was not considered newsworthy in western mainstream news.
THE SINGLE WESTERN MSM REPORT ON THE LUGANSK ATROCITY, 3rd JUNE 2014
The video at the CNN link below is the crime scene sanitised by CNN, though played straight with honest reporting on the scene not playing things to Kiev’s tune.
(There was a time early in the war in the Donbass when CNN were not afraid to contradict the Ukrainian regime in Kiev.) Watch, because it's the first and last time you will see this.
5 women and 3 men died, all civilians.
Air attack on pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk kills 8, stuns residents.
COLLECTIVE WEST-UKRAINE <-> RUSSIA
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LEVAN GUDADZE: Ukrainian Retreat, Terrorist Attack in Moscow, Iran, EU Energy Crisis, Flood, Russian Space Station.
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Sergey Poletayev: Here’s Russia’s plan for Ukraine for this summer.
The cost to the West of supporting Kiev continues to rise, meaning Moscow’s best option is to wait.
From time to time, people ask why Russia is not acting more decisively in Ukraine, and why it appears to be dragging its feet. Some say it’s out of weakness, others suspect some secret agreements with the West, and it seems there are theories to suit all tastes.
In reality, the answer is clear and transparent. This year and the next, Russia has budgeted about 5-6% of GDP on the Ukraine conflict, and the Kremlin’s task is to use these comparatively small resources as efficiently as possible. They intention is to achieve the goals of the military operation without a new mobilisation, and to preserve not only a calm and functioning economy but also stability inside the country.
Although the front line has remained largely static since autumn 2022, the political situation and the circumstances in which the conflict will likely end are changing radically – in Russia’s favour. With little risk and at relatively small financial expense, President Vladimir Putin is slowly but surely getting his way.
Not waiting, but preparing
There is increasing talk of an imminent Russian offensive. As with the Ukrainian ‘counteroffensive’ a year ago, commentators claim to know exactly where it will take place (towards Kharkov or Sumy), when it will happen (in May or June), and are sure in advance that it will be decisive for the whole conflict, and so on.
But it seems to us that the Kremlin does not want a big march on Ukraine’s second city this summer, and here is why.
Firstly, there is a lack of experience. We are talking about an operation on the scale of the Eastern Front in the Second World War, and such endeavours have never been carried out during the current campaign. (February 22, 2022 doesn’t count, because the enemy wasn’t fully mobilised, and the front line didn’t really exist so there was no need to break through anything.)
In any conflict, the scale required for offensive battles increases steadily, and the appropriate tools, strategic and tactical techniques, officer and staff corps need to be formed. The leap required to go from a five-month operation to take Avdeevka to a rapid and successful occupation of Kharkov or Sumy seems unfathomable.
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Also, the forces and means required are not yet in place. Yes, we have reserves of about 150,000-170,000 people. Yes, more people are signing up for military service every month than Ukraine is catching in taverns and on the streets, which means that the numbers are still growing. But a mass of soldiers is not an army. They need to be armed, equipped, trained, provided with experienced officers, staff capacity, equipment, shells, aircraft, and other things.
Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu has said that the formation of two new general armies will be completed by the end of 2024. So the Russian Armed Forces will only reach their peak form in eight to nine months, and then the conditions for opening a second front should be apparent.
But what about this summer? Unless the Ukrainian front suddenly collapses, we are likely to see a slow and measured advance, with a fight for every field and village, combined with simultaneous air strikes deep inside the front and on the Ukrainian rear.
Despite increasingly sophisticated Ukrainian counterattacks, such a scenario will exhaust the enemy much faster than it exhausts us, which means that by the end of the year, or into next summer, the balance of forces will have shifted even more in our favour. In any case, this is the calculation of our general staff.
Meanwhile, if Ukraine’s forces suddenly falter in Donbass, Kharkov Region, or Zaporozhye, the reserves we already have in the zone will be sufficient to develop success.
At the same time, Russian offensive operations of operational (medium) scale are possible in the spring and summer, especially if Kiev’s army begins to bend more than it is now. This is not only a rehearsal and a way of gaining experience, but also, if successful, a demonstration to the enemy that we know how to launch an offensive, that we know exactly what to do, and that we will do it again if necessary.
Already the general opinion in the West is that Ukraine can’t win. Thus, the new debate is about whether to negotiate or directly join the fight (the latter seems unrealistic, but more on that below). And all this is mixed with a simultaneous general opinion that Putin cannot attack, that the Russian army is exhausted, and so on.
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When the formation of the new armies described above is completed and it’s decided to move them to the Ukrainian border, the second front will be suddenly trumpeted in Ukraine and in the West, and this in itself could be a decisive factor. Putin will thus offer the enemy a choice – either accept our terms (the disarmament and neutrality of Ukraine, as well as other control mechanisms) or prepare for a new round, for which we are much better prepared than you.
In other words, if you won’t do it nicely, we will take what we want by force.
When aspirations don’t match opportunities
Of course, the West does not want to sit idly by and wait for Russia to get its way without making any moves. But after the failure of last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensive, no clear ideas have emerged about how to defeat Moscow.
Worse, from the perspective of Russia’s opponents, the political divide in Western countries has reached such proportions that it is time to talk not about the strategy of the bloc as a whole, but about the solidarity of the globalist elites, who are facing growing opposition both in their own countries and in the Global South. As a result, their aspirations are struggling to be realised.
What are we talking about? Last autumn it was decided that Ukraine’s task for 2024 is to hold, construct, and strike – that is, to maintain the front, build defences, and bombard Russia as painfully as possible – while rebuilding the army and preparing for decisive victorious battles in 2025, after which an exhausted Putin will surely have to make peace.
The first part is still holding up (especially in view of the fact that Russia is not advancing anywhere), but the second is more difficult – due to political squabbling and a general shortage of weapons, supplies are insufficient even for the current needs of Kiev’s armed forces, and although the situation in Ukraine is not as catastrophic as the professional mourners in the Western press are claiming every day, it is slowly but surely deteriorating. In other words, so far, everything is going according to Putin’s plan rather than the West’s – gradually the Ukrainian army is getting weaker, not stronger.
In addition to the problems with Western weapons, there is another: Ukraine is running out of soldiers. According to various estimates, up to one and a half million people have passed through the Ukrainian armed forces during the conflict. Initially it was made up of those who wanted to fight, or at least were not against it.
Read more: Fyodor Lukyanov: NATO looks strong, but the real picture is very different
However, now it’s not so easy. Attempts to increase enlistment in the Ukrainian army are being met with total sabotage, both by worried men who are running away en masse from military recruiters, and by MPs who dithered over a bill on extending mobilisation since the autumn.
So the West, traumatised by Ukraine’s failures last year, is now reluctant to provide scarce weapons – and at the same time sees no motivation to provide more as long as the Ukrainians themselves are unwilling to fight. A vicious circle.
Against this background, the second part of the grandiose plan, the turning point next year, looks more like ‘I’ll start a new life on Monday’ style complacency. There is no talk of increasing Western supplies to Ukraine in 2025, and even maintaining current volumes and budget funding (around $40 billion a year) is in serious doubt.
The Kremlin is well aware of all this and is raising the costs for the West. As a result of strikes on the energy sector, Ukraine has gone from being a donor country to one that needs electricity supplies from the European Union and large investments to rebuild destroyed power plants – all at the West’s expense, of course. The strikes on gas storage facilities in western Ukraine increase the risk of disruption to the heating season next winter, and so on.
As we have said many times, the West is at a fork in the road – withdraw from the conflict and negotiate with Russia, or up the ante and go to war itself. Macron has floated a trial balloon, and the reaction both within France itself and among NATO members with at least some kind of functioning armies has shown that no, there will be no Western troops in Ukraine in any significant numbers for the foreseeable future.
Faced with a fork in the road, the West has been unable to choose one way or the other and has instead stood by and watched Ukraine slowly lose. It is now worth waiting to see whether any fundamental decisions will be taken at the NATO summit in July; whether the US Congress will be able to give Ukraine any money and, more importantly, whether this cash will actually help the country and not just prolong its agony. Not to mention whether Kiev can finally solve the problem of mobilisation without causing riots in the rear. And above all, let’s see if the West can come up with a coherent plan that will force the Kremlin to take risks.
If not, if things continue as they are now, Russia can continue to sit back and wait for Ukraine to fall into its hands like an overripe fruit.
Moscow has at least a couple of years to do so. How long does Kiev have?
Sergey Poletayev: Here’s Russia’s plan for Ukraine for this summer.
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Putin Ultimatum: West Accepts No NATO, No Ukr Army, 4 Regions/Crimea Or Rus Imposes Kiev Surrender.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU of THE DURAN
Nebenzya, prepare for Ukraine surrender. Elensky demands EU, NATO entry. IOC/EU prays to Saint Vovan.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU & ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Kharkov blackout. Russian military stretching the front lines.
DANIEL DAVIS: Finally Someone in DC GETS it RIGHT on UKRAINE.
DANNY HAIPHONG: The Duran: Russia is DESTROYING Ukraine's Army and Macron, NATO Want WWIII.
GLENN GREENWALD: Sen. Ron Johnson: Eisenhower Warned Us.
DANIEL DAVIS: Deep Dive Intel Briefing: What We Learned This Week.
Russia Test-Launches Intercontinental Ballistic Missile.
Zelensky’s LATEST claim is his MOST Ridiculous.
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Scott Ritter: There Will Be No 'Great Counteroffensive,' as Ukraine Teeters on Brink of Collapse.
As Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to plead for more military handouts from the West, he told German newspaper Bild on Tuesday that he needs advanced weapons for a new counteroffensive against Russian forces.
There will be no “great Ukrainian counteroffensive,” as Russia has entirely “changed the game” on the battlefield, former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter told Sputnik.
The promises that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky dangles before his Western patrons in an effort to wangle more aid from them are just empty promises, the retired US Marine Corps intelligence officer said. He likened the two opposing sides in NATO’s ongoing proxy war against Russia in Ukraine to two "Jenga blocks."
“What is going on between Russia and Ukraine today is that Russia is making Ukraine lose ‘Jenga blocks’ at a rate far greater than NATO can replace them. Ukraine’s Jenga block structure is becoming weak, and may collapse at any moment,” he said.
Accordingly, Zelensky is appealing to Europe and the United States, begging for more "Jenga blocks": air defense, tanks, artillery, artillery shells, "because his structure is on the verge of collapsing," Ritter noted. Russia, on the other hand, is building walls of protection around its "Jenga blocks," the analyst underscored.
“Russia is very strong, sturdy, and is in no danger of collapsing. Ukraine is teetering on the brink of collapse. Not just militarily, but also economically, politically. Russia has taken apart the Kiev regime’s energy infrastructure, which spells an imminent collapse of the defense industries,” the expert said.
The Russian Armed Forces have been conducting massive precision strikes using long-range air and sea-based weapons, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, on fuel and energy infrastructure in Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry reported on Thursday that the strikes were in response to attempts by the Kiev regime to damage Russian oil and gas industry and energy facilities.
"Politically speaking, the world is tired of the Ukrainian conflict, tired of a nation that begs for more and more, but cannot produce any positive outcomes on the battlefield," Scott Ritter emphasized.
He added that the Ukrainian "Jenga block" structure is "about to collapse, and that is going to happen sooner rather than later."
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky told the German tabloid Bild on Tuesday that Kiev had already come up with a plan for a new counteroffensive against Russian forces, but needs more advanced Western weapons.
The much-heralded 2023 offensive started with a delay on June 4 and ended in November 2023 without achieving any of its stated goals, such as reaching the Azov Sea in order to cut “the land bridge” between Crimea and “mainland” Russia. Zelensky's previous failed counteroffensive plan resulted in the deaths and serious injuries of over 166,000 Ukrainian soldiers, as well as the loss of 789 tanks, 2,400 other armored vehicles, and 132 aircraft.
Russia, on the other hand, proved decisively that its military equipment, tactics, and military-industrial base are no worse than NATO’s, destroying hundreds of modern Western military vehicles, tanks, and artillery systems.
A high-ranking source in the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that any new Ukrainian counteroffensive would end in complete disaster for Kiev, with the ultimate defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Scott Ritter: There Will Be No 'Great Counteroffensive,' as Ukraine Teeters on Brink of Collapse.
COLLECTIVE WEST <-> GLOBAL MAJORITY
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ISRAEL-PALESTINE-IRAN-SYRIA-IRAQ-LEBANON-YEMEN-DPRK-TAIWAN
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ALEX CHRISTOFOROU & ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Biden White House warns of Iran retaliation attack.
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DANIEL DAVIS: Deep Dive Intel Briefing: What We Learned This Week.
RICHARD MEDHURST: The Cause of All War in the Middle East.
Iran Attack On Israel Imminent, Says U.S.
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US Envoy Asked Middle East Foreign Ministers To Mediate With Iran.
USA
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EUROPE / UK
DANNY HAIPHONG: The Duran: Russia is DESTROYING Ukraine's Army and Macron, NATO Want WWIII.
MULTIPOLARITY - RUSSIA-CHINA / BRICS
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AFRICA
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NON-ENGLISH NEWS
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MAPPING CHANNEL UPDATES
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[ SITREP ] BOHDANIVKA CAPTURE corroborated; Heavy Russian offensives across 4 fronts.
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It Has Started | This Russian Bridgehead Is Collapsing Ukrainian Defensive Line Near Chasiv Yar.
Russian Advances APPROACH New Ukrainian Defense Line.
The Parties Are Preparing For A New Offensive | Military Summary And Analysis For 2024.04.12
VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MADNESS OF MACRON’S BURNING AMBITION COULD GET THE WHOLE WORLD INCINERATED
Emmanuel Macron wants to emulate French president General Charles de Gaulle but without de Gaulle's tactical acumen. What are the chances that Macron's push for ever more war will have a happy outcome?
Emmanuel Macron sent a large group of French officers into Ukraine. Russia destroyed them all in a missile strike and then listed their names for all to see. It was not only these men who were killed, additional French officers who arrived at the scene were also destroyed in a second strike. So, the present reckless words by Macron about sending even more Frenchmen to die in Ukraine are understandable, as is today’s announcement that France will send even more Caesar artillery pieces to Ukraine. The little Napoleon is stamping his feet in a rage. But his petulant tirades have the possible eventual outcome of the whole world getting burned.
Most of France’s NATO allies have spoken out in horror regarding Macron’s reckless statements urging him to shut up and stand down. All except for Britain and certain Baltic states who appear ready to contemplate the potential initiation of a third world war.
If NATO troops are sent into Ukraine Russia has stated unequivocally that it will target them as belligerents. They will be categorised as mercenaries and targeted relentlessly.
Without doubt Macron will also be happy to allow F16 fighters, promised for delivery to Ukraine by mid-summer, to fly from French airports to attack Russian forces. Britain, Poland, Romania and those Baltic states mentioned above are likely to allow this also. Several statements have been made in Russia regarding this possibility. They make it clear that there will be strikes on those airports where F16s are stationed, regardless of their location.
We are approaching the ultimate crisis in Ukraine. The Russian military is making gain after gain with increasing numbers of Ukrainian military dead, wounded and deciding to surrender. It appears certain that within a matter of weeks Russia will initiate an offensive that will succeed in breaking Ukrainian lines, and delivering a defeat to the Ukrainian military and regime from which it cannot possibly recover. The chance for the Ukrainian junta to negotiate anything approaching a favourable negotiated peace will be gone. The western powers, and especially the insane leaders of France, Britain and Baltic states, appear ready to double down one last time. The risk is of course that it could turn out to be ‘the last time’ for many things, including the possibility of life on earth.
Macron and his fellow madmen are leading us all to the brink of the ultimate disaster. They appear totally blind to the resolve on the Russian side to establish the security of Russia once and for all against those seeking to destabilise and undermine it. For all our sakes we must hope that all these little Hitler’s and wannabe Napoleon’s are relieved of their duties and ability to command very soon. If not, then their burning ambition to destroy Russia may well mean we ultimately all burn together.
