RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 13.11.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
*** IS TRUMP BUILDING A SECOND NEOCON ADMINSTRATION? ***
COLLECTIVE WEST-UKRAINE <-> RUSSIA
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Trump Appoints Iran Opponents, Saudi Against Iran Strikes; Russia Hits Kiev, FT: Ukraine Crumbling.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU of THE DURAN: Hegseth at Pentagon. Elon, Vivek; drain swamp. Boris, UK troops to Ukraine. Kallas will punish China.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU & ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN: Zelensky forgets Donbass, focus on North Korea.
Kiev Admits Ukrainian Defenses Crumbling as Russia Makes Fastest Donbass Advances Since 2022.
Ukrainian officials admit that Russian forces are advancing in the Donbass faster than ever since 2022 and that Ukrainian defenses are crumbling amid manpower shortages, the Financial Times newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Ukrainian military officials, soldiers and analysts also believe that the next few months will be critical in the Ukraine conflict, the newspaper said. Ukraine will reportedly try to stabilize its defenses and strengthen its position to secure more favorable conditions in possible negotiations with Moscow that Kiev may be forced to hold by US President-elect Donald Trump.
More Ukrainian medical personnel will also be sent to the eastern front ahead of heavy fighting expected in the coming days and weeks, the paper added, citing an unnamed Ukrainian army spokesperson.
Kurakhovo: Why Russia's Liberation of This City Spells Disaster for Ukraine?
Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian armed forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi had reported on the difficult situation for Ukrainian troops in some areas of the Donetsk People's Republic and that a decision had been taken to significantly reinforce them.
Kiev Admits Ukrainian Defenses Crumbling as Russia Makes Fastest Donbass Advances Since 2022.
HISTORY LEGENDS: What Does Trump’s Peace Plan Actually Mean for Ukraine?
DANNY HAIPHONG - BRIAN BERLETIC: Russia's DEADLY Kursk Trap Crushes Ukraine, Putin WARNS Trump to Stop This Now.
AMBASSADOR CHAS FREEMAN: Ukraine’s Final Hours?
SEBASTIAN SAS: Russia Smashes Through Ukraine's Eastern Flank.
GARLAND NIXON: RAY MCGOVERN: THAWING US-RUSSIA RELATIONS.
BORZZIKMAN: Russia Showed Video of the Destruction of 100 Ukrainian & NATO Soldiers in SUMY┃RU Captured ROVNOPOL
Fyodor Lukyanov: This is why Trump’s approach to Ukraine is so different.
The key is understanding how the US president-elect formulates policy, and his background in the business world
By Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
Donald Trump formulates his political course using memes. Strategies, programs and action plans are then drawn up by people around him. But the impetus comes from the main character’s pronouncements.
That’s why we hear the US president-elect promise to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. It sounds unrealistic, to say the least, but it reflects his desire. Which is obviously a conscious one. Which means it shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.
It’s a pointless exercise to speculate on the basis of leaks and anonymous comments from people – supposedly – close to Trump about what he really has in mind. In all likelihood, he doesn’t yet know himself what he will do. What matters is something else: how Trump’s approach to Ukraine will differ from that of the current presidential administration, and whether he even understands rapprochement.
With regards to the first of these, the difference is stark. President Joe Biden and his team represent a cohort of politicians whose views were shaped by the end of the Cold War. America’s ideological and moral righteousness – and its unquestioned power superiority – determined not even the possibility, but rather the necessity of world domination. The emergence of rival powers that could challenge certain elements of the liberal world order has been met with fierce resistance.
That’s because this setup didn’t allow for any deviation from its basic principles and refused to allow for compromise on fundamental issues. Russia’s actions in Ukraine are seen as an encroachment on the very essence of the liberal order. Hence the call for Moscow’s “strategic defeat.”
Trump stands for a change in positioning. Instead of global dominance, there will a vigorous defense of specific American interests. Priority will be given to those that bring clear benefits (not in the long term, but now). Belief in the primacy of domestic over foreign policy, which has always characterized Trump’s supporters and has now spread throughout the Republican Party, means that the choice of international issues is going to be selective. Preserving the moral and political hegemony of the US is not an end in itself, but a tool. In such a system of priorities, the Ukrainian project loses the destiny it has in the eyes of the adherents of the liberal order. It becomes a pawn in a larger game.
Read more: ‘Netanyahu will want a lot from him’: Can Trump reconcile Israel and Iran?
Another peculiarity of the president-elect is that even his detractors largely admit that he doesn’t see war as an acceptable tool. Yes, he’ll use hard bargaining, muscle-flexing and coercive pressure (as practiced in his usual business). But not destructive armed conflict, because that is irrational. Trump doesn’t seem to have a twisted heart when he talks about the need to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine and Gaza.
Now let’s look at his methods. Trump’s previous term offers two examples of his approach to regional conflicts. One was the ‘Abraham Accords’, an agreement that facilitated formal relations between Israel and a number of Arab countries. The second was the meetings with Kim Jong-un, including a full-fledged summit in Hanoi.
The first was the result of shuttle diplomacy by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The powerful financial interests of America, the Gulf monarchies and Israel led to a series of shady political deals. The current situation in the region is many times worse than it was then, but it cannot be said that the arrangements have collapsed. The framework is still in place. But such a foundation can hardly be considered a model. The system of relations in the Middle East is very special, and the scale of the Ukraine conflict is incomparably greater.
The second example is negative. Trump hastily tried to shift the systemic confrontation by resorting to a spectacle. The bet was on pleasing the ego of the interlocutor - the first North Korean leader to meet with a US president. It didn’t work, because beyond that there was no idea how to solve the real complex problems.
However, we can’t simply project the legacy of 2016-2020 onto the period ahead. Trump has gained some experience. His environment is different now, and his electoral mandate is what he could only have dreamed of back then. There is more room for maneuver than before, but not enough for the genuine concessions needed for a comprehensive agreement with Moscow.
It is in Russia’s interest to remain calm, and to refuse to react to any provocations. Yes, objectively the situation is changing. But now everyone will be talking about the fact that a window of opportunity has opened for a short time, and we must not miss this chance. In crises like the Ukrainian one, there are no simple solutions or easy “shortcuts.” Either this window is a gateway to new stable relations – and it cannot be forced open, but will need a careful approach. Or it’s a portal to an even more brutal struggle, because it births yet another disappointment.
Fyodor Lukyanov: This is why Trump’s approach to Ukraine is so different.
ISRAEL-WEST <-> PALESTINE-IRAN-SYRIA-IRAQ-LEBANON-YEMEN-VENEZUELA-DPRK
PROFESSOR MOHAMMAD MARANDI: Iran & Hezbollah Gear Up to DEVASTATE Israel's Offensives.
SABBY SABS - PROFESSOR MOHAMMAD MARANDI: Israel's Regime Is FINISHED.
AMBASSADOR CHAS FREEMAN: Israel’s Bold Move to Unite Shia & Sunni Shakes the World.
KATIE HALPER: Thomas Frank & Matt Karp On Election, Lea Kayali On Genocide.
COLLECTIVE WEST <-> GLOBAL MAJORITY
Leaked docs reveal US 'color revolution' bid in Cambodia.
USA
THE GRAYZONE: The Swamp rises.
BREAKTHROUGH NEWS: Trump Already Filling Gov’t with Anti-China Warhawks: Is a Showdown Coming?
DUE DISSIDENCE: Neocon Swamp FLOODS Trump Team, 'Don't Look Up' Director URGES DEMEXIT, Thomas Frank Returns.
LT. COL. KAREN KWIATKOWSKI: What If Trump Goes Neocon?
GARLAND NIXON: TRUMP WINS - A NEW PRESIDENT WITH OLD PROBLEMS - WITH ANDREI MARTYANOV AND SCOTT RITTER.
RACHEL BLEVINS - GARLAND NIXON: Trump's 'Israel First,' Anti-China Cabinet Picks + The Fight for Secretary of State.
MULTIPOLARITY - RUSSIA-CHINA / BRICS
Moscow and Beijing hold 19th annual strategic security consultation round.
PROFESSOR RICHARD WOLFF: The End of the US Empire and the Denial of the US, and the Rise of China and BRICS.
NON-ENGLISH NEWS
LIU SIVAYA: HAN VOLADO LA PRESA (con la catástrofe y las víctimas que eso conlleva): UCRANIA SE AHOGA A SÍ MISMA.
MAPPING CHANNEL UPDATES
Harvest Time, Dreamy NATO, Zaporizhzhia Offensive Gains Momentum. Military Summary For 2024.11.13
Test Missile Strike, Russian Offensive Gains Momentum, Ukrainian Retreat In Kurakhove. MS 2024.11.13
Two Pockets Drawn Up Near Kurakhove | Russian Forces Capture 36SQKM.
Battle for Kurakhovo Has Begun.
Losses & Violence Grow - Ukraine Map Update.
What Does Trump’s Peace Plan Actually Mean for Ukraine?
VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WHAT ARE RUSSIA’S GOALS IN UKRAINE & WHAT ARE NOT?
The media war accompanying Russia's invasion of Ukraine along w/ western politicians entering 'war mode' where words are used as weapons rather than to enlighten, has had highly negative consequences.
The war of words that came with the crisis in Ukraine have obscured more than they have revealed and I believe the evidence is that they have helped in extending this war and its casualties while constantly pushing back the time when peace negotiations could begin. This has resulted in an almost endless tragedy for Ukraine and the families on both sides who have lost loved ones who may not have died if the war of words had not been so fierce.
There has been a constant unwillingness by western news media and political spheres to honestly state the facts on both sides of this conflict and this since it began in 2014 with the Maidan insurrection. Brave men and women have died as a direct consequence of this unwillingness, an unwillingness that continues until today, though signs do now exist that a greater willingness to confront reality is at last emerging.
The crucial factor that lies at the heart of the issue described above is that of the conflict between rhetoric and reality which has had the effect, via the western news media and general political milieu concerning the war that has directly contributed to its prolongation. This factor is complemented, and to a degree explained, by yet another factor, the constant transmission of uninspected conclusions vs. known facts.
One of the main uninspected conclusions around which much rhetoric is based is that Russia wishes to take all of Ukraine, thereby totally eliminating it as a state.
The notion that Russia wants to ‘eliminate’ Ukraine cannot be substantiated by anything the inspection of the historical record of the conflict shows us.
This conclusion, that Russia has the intention to totally eliminate the nation known as Ukraine is based upon suppositions largely based upon long-term Ukrainian rhetoric reflected within news media and political statements in the West.
If we look at the known facts that dispute this contention of Russia’s desire to eliminate Ukraine entirely they are these:
Russia worked within the Minsk process for over six years, a process whose goal was to maintain the Donbass region within Ukraine but with enough autonomy to guarantee the security of the Russian-speaking majority and their culture of choice.
Russia chose to engage in talks with the Ukrainians very soon after its invasion of Ukraine. As far as we know from an official Ukrainian source who attended the Minsk and Istanbul negotiations his team was surprised at the modesty of Russian demands, they sought a conclusion that would deliver Ukraine agreeing to remain outside the NATO alliance and little else. All other factors regarding Crimea and the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk were to be negotiated by the respective leaders of each nation at a later date.
Russia’s initial goals for its operation in Ukraine were made clear right at its start:
Ukraine never to join NATO.
The demilitarisation of Ukraine (max. 30,000 troops.)
The denazification of Ukraine.
Winning the future security of the Russian-speaking majority in the Donbass.
There was no goal that Ukraine was to be eliminated. Those who have come to this conclusion arrive at it through supposition only. It was certainly not a goal stated by any Russian authority. To call it a ‘maximalist’ goal is clearly an assertion based on factors other than observable evidence. It is at worst sloppy thinking and should not have any place in any truly reasoned analysis. The most likely source of such a conclusion lies in the general thrust of Ukrainian and western propaganda, not in any evidential factor.
In relation to point 4. above, Professor John J. Mearsheimer, expert in ‘Great Power Politics’ has, since 2016 talked of one major consequence of the push to have Ukraine join NATO, that being the destruction of Ukraine by Russia. This, he points out, is a likely consequence of Russia’s reaction to what it sees as the existential threat to it of NATO’s approach. However, points 1 and 2 above show that Russia’s intent for its operation was minimalist in nature. This is shown by several areas of fact:
The Minsk Process
Russia attempted to avoid conflict for at least six entire years and even after its invasion it sought to draw it to an early conclusion. With its intentions on both occasions clearly thwarted it is clear it had no other feasible choice but to continue its operation up to the point where the Ukrainians agreed to once again agree to negotiations with a view to ending the war.
Negotiations Immediately After Russia’s Operation Began
As spoken of in point 2. above Russia chose to engage the Ukrainians in peace negotiations soon after its invasion, first in Minsk then later in Istanbul. The modesty of its demands surprised the Ukrainian delegation according to one of its leading negotiators, this primarily being that Ukraine give up its aim to join NATO. Almost all else was to be negotiated between the two leaders at a later date.
Russia Constantly Playing Catch-up
It should be clear to all that Russia was in catch-up mode for almost the entire period of its operation, the intent of which I would argue is clearly merely to have the Ukrainians return to the negotiating table. Over time, as it became clear to all and sundry that the Ukrainians, in combination with the western powers, had committed to fight to the maximum of their combined potential, only then did Russia begin to slowly and incrementally enlarge its forces and the scope of their battle plans.
Apart from all of the above it is inconceivable that Russia would want to take on itself the onerous task of governing the Ukrainian-speaking people of western Ukraine. By occupying the entirety of Ukraine (required for the elimination of the nation known as Ukraine) the Russian authorities know what kind of Pandora’s Box of horrors that would entail.
The evidence of our eyes and knowledge of events on the ground shows us that there was never a Russian goal to ‘eliminate’ Ukraine as a nation by occupying it in its entirety. At the very least it is clear that Russia certainly did not start this war with any conception that they could ‘eliminate’ Ukraine. If this was its desire it came extremely badly prepared to do this. A relatively small force went into Ukraine initially, it appears with the direct goal of intimidating the Ukrainian leadership to return to the negotiating table. Only when it became abundantly clear that this was not going to happen and that the West was now seeking to actively undermine Russia through the agency of Ukraine did Russia begin building its forces and even now is not anywhere near the size that would be required to occupy Ukraine completely in order to ‘eliminate’ it. This idea should be completely removed from all discourse and analysis on the subject in my view.
Russia’s intent and the limits to that intent ought to be crystal clear and surely are for those with eyes to see. Those however, who remain committed to the project of undermining Russia through the agency of Ukraine will, without doubt, continue to try to muddy the waters of discourse through the use of distortions of reality. It appears that despite every indicator that their policy in Ukraine has utterly failed they will continue to do this to the bitter end and beyond. Such is the neocon mindset and such thereby is much of the essence that is the tragedy of Ukraine, a nation driven to virtual destruction through the blind ambition of non-Ukrainians determined to use them for their own geopolitical gain.
