RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 09.08.2024
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
Please note: We will be in transit during the next three weeks.
Updates may be sporadic and perhaps absent during this time.
Our apologies for this alteration to your daily updates.
*** HAS KIEV REGIME MADE ITS FINAL MISTAKE IN KURSK? ***
“Ukraine. What is the truth...?
Why won’t western media tell both sides…?”
VIRTUALLY UNREPORTED ATROCITY IN LUGANSK, 2nd JUNE 2014
A lot has been said about atrocities in the western media claimed to have been perpetrated by the Russians, for example at Bucha and Mariupol among others. These assertions are conveyed on the say so of the Ukrainian authorities. How willing though are western news broadcasters to convey atrocities attributed to the Ukrainians? The following will I think provide the answer.
If anyone wonders if they are receiving accurate coverage of the conflict in Ukraine I would suggest watching the video below of an event which occurred on the 2nd of June 2014 and ask themselves if they recall hearing about it on any mainstream media news channel at the time.
The video is harrowing to watch. The bodies (five women and three men) are real. Yet across western media there was only one single news report that occurred a day later. This was from CNN and occurred only because a CNN team happened to be nearby at the time of the atrocity and so the network could hardly ignore it as all others so obviously did.
The video below shows the unvarnished truth that was not considered newsworthy in western mainstream news.
THE SINGLE WESTERN MSM REPORT ON THE LUGANSK ATROCITY, 3rd JUNE 2014
The video at the CNN link below is the crime scene sanitised by CNN, though played straight with honest reporting on the scene not playing things to Kiev’s tune.
(There was a time early in the war in the Donbass when CNN were not afraid to contradict the Ukrainian regime in Kiev.) Watch, because it's the first and last time you will see this.
5 women and 3 men died, all civilians.
Air attack on pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk kills 8, stuns residents.
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Ukraine wants US help in retaining part of Russian border region – WaPo.
Officials in Kiev reportedly believe easing restrictions on the use of ATACMS missiles could give them leverage in talks with Moscow.
Kiev wants the US to allow it to use long-range ATACMS missiles to support the cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region, The Washington Post reported on Thursday, citing a senior official. The approval could reportedly allow Ukraine to take a stronger stance in talks with Russia.
Ukrainian forces launched the cross-border attack – the largest since the start of the conflict – in Kursk Region’s Sudzha district on Tuesday. The Russian military estimated that up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops and dozens of Western-supplied heavy tanks and armored personnel carriers took part in the attack.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the incursion as a “large-scale provocation,” adding that the Ukrainian military was conducting “indiscriminate strikes” on civilians, residential buildings and ambulances. The US, Kiev’s key backer, has insisted that Ukraine’s attack is not escalatory, and that the country is “taking action to protect themselves.”
Read more: Ukrainian incursion into Russia: What we know so far
While Ukrainian forces have reportedly made some gains in the district, which is home to a key gas metering station that Russia uses to transport energy to the EU, Moscow said Kiev’s advance had been halted and estimated Ukrainian losses at more than 400 troops and dozens of armored vehicles.
As fighting continues in the region, an aide to Vladimir Zelensky told the Washington Post on condition of anonymity that Ukrainian officials have requested US approval to conduct strikes using ATACMS – which have a range of up to 300km – to target Russian airfields. The paper noted that this decision “could allow Kiev to hold a portion of Kursk (Region) for some time.”
“This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia — this is what it’s all about,” the adviser added, echoing an earlier statement made by Mikhail Podoliak, another senior Zelensky aide.
In late May, the US allowed Ukraine to use American-made weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia in response to Moscow’s advance in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region, which sought to protect civilians from Kiev’s recurring artillery strikes. Media reports suggested that the range of Ukrainian strikes was limited to about 100km, meaning that some high-priority targets such as airfields remained beyond Kiev’s reach. Ukraine has repeatedly asked the US to lift those restrictions.
Meanwhile, the Post noted that the Kursk incursion comes as Ukrainian officials “have expressed some sense of urgency” to improve their military position before the November presidential elections in the US, amid concerns that Republican candidate Donald Trump could win the vote. The latter has repeatedly vowed to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours if elected, while criticizing military aid to Kiev.
Ukraine wants US help in retaining part of Russian border region – WaPo.
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Moscow issues updated estimate of Ukrainian losses in Kursk incursion.
Kiev has lost nearly 1,000 soldiers and over 100 armored vehicles over the past several days, Russia’s Defense Ministry has said.
Russian forces continue to inflict heavy losses on Ukrainian troops that crossed the border into Kursk Region earlier this week, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Friday, providing an estimate of Kiev’s casualties in the incursion.
According to the ministry, Ukraine has lost up to 945 soldiers as well as 102 armored vehicles, including 12 tanks and 17 armored personnel carriers. The figures include more than 280 troops and 27 armored vehicles destroyed over the past 24 hours in areas bordering Kursk Region, Moscow added.
The report also stated that Russian airstrikes have recently destroyed five Stryker armored personnel carriers as well as a Ukrainian military column that consisted of a tank, four APCs, and a Kozak combat vehicle.
The ministry added that the operation to repel and destroy Ukraine’s forces in the region continues, and that the Russian military, aided by airstrikes and artillery fire, has prevented Kiev’s attempts to conduct raids deep into Russian territory in Kursk Region.
Ukrainian forces launched their cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region in the early hours of Tuesday. The leadership in Kiev has said one of the objectives of the assault is to sow “fear” into the hearts of the Russian population, in order to lower support for their government and eke out a stronger negotiating position.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the attack as a “large-scale provocation,” and has accused Kiev of conducting “indiscriminate strikes” on civilians, residential buildings, and ambulances. Multiple videos circulating online in the past two days appear to show Ukrainian troops firing on civilian cars.
The Russian Defense Ministry has estimated that Kiev’s assault was carried out by forces numbering up to a thousand, supported by tanks and artillery. The chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, reported on Wednesday that Kiev’s incursion had been halted by the Russian military, and that Ukraine had suffered heavy losses.
Moscow issues updated estimate of Ukrainian losses in Kursk incursion.
‘I’m afraid of dying’: How and why Ukrainian men hide from military service.
Almost 30 months since Vladimir Zelensky banned males from leaving the country, many refuseniks are resorting to any means necessary to avoid army service.
Ukraine’s general mobilization – announced in the spring of 2022 – changed the lives of thousands of military-age men. There are questions about the motivation levels of forced conscripts, yet Kiev desperately needs more troops in the combat zone. In an attempt to escape tightening mobilization laws, Ukrainian men are resorting to increasingly desperate measures: from donning strap-on breasts to risking their lives by crossing the border. Here, we look at the steps the Kiev authorities are taking to hunt down draft dodgers, and the risks many are willing to take to avoid being caught.
Tightening what looks more and more like a noose
After the start of Russia’s military operation in February 2022, the Ukrainian authorities imposed martial law. General mobilization followed soon afterwards. The rights of a significant part of Ukraine’s male population have been restricted ever since, including a ban on military-age men from leaving the country. However, in April of this year, the rules were further tightened, and the draft age was lowered from 27 to 25.
Moreover, a category describing people as having “limited fitness” for military service was abolished. A potential serviceman is now either “fit” or “unfit” for duty. This effectively means that the Ukrainian army is conscripting people who would be considered unfit for service in most parts of the world – such as those with HIV, chronic viral hepatitis, stage 1 hypertension, and even those with hearing problems and “neurotic mild mental disorders.”
All Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 60, regardless of whether they are fit for duty or exempt, must now carry a military ID. Without it, men cannot receive a passport to travel abroad. Kiev has even refused to provide consular services to Ukrainian men living outside the country. Foreign Affairs Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that men of military age who are “sitting abroad” will not receive consular services from a nation that they don’t want to defend.
All Ukrainian men must personally register at a military office. Violators face penalties ranging from 17,000 to 22,500 hryvnia ($415-$550) – which is around the same as the average monthly salary – to the confiscation of driver’s licenses. Military enlistment offices can also contact the police, who will deliver a conscript by force.
Persons exempt from mobilization include police officers, employees of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, the State Bureau of Investigation, the Prosecutor’s Office, the State Emergency Service, MPs, ministers, judges, employees, and the owners of defense-industry enterprises.
Other exemption categories include disabled persons, fathers of many children, single parents, those with disabled children, and students.
Included in the amendments to the mobilization law is the removal of a paragraph concerning the demobilization of military personnel who have already served for 36 months.
Ukraine is resorting to such measures because it desperately needs more people in the army. This is an issue often discussed among oits leadership. Kiev believes that increased mobilization will deliver a breakthrough on the battlefield. When announcing the new measures, Vladimir Zelensky explained that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and its former commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhny, had insisted on 450,000-500,000 more recruits.
The process has picked up speed. Defense Ministry spokesperson Dmitry Lazutkin told the NV.ua outlet that the situation has significantly changed since the end of the winter of 2023 and early spring of 2024. He claims that 4.6 million men eligible for military service have updated their information. “This shows us that there is an [information] base that we can work with,” he explained.
Lazutkin did not, however, disclose the specifics. He claims that Ukrainians’ attitude to military service has changed. According to the spokesman, in previous years the decision to join the army was more emotional. “Now, the nature of such decisions has changed. People weigh [the decision], consciously look for a unit, a brigade, a position [that fits them] and in this way determine their fate,” he said.
Since the start of mobilization, media reports have shown the lengths to which conscription officers are willing to go to deliver military summonses. As countless videos demonstrate, a man can receive a notice virtually anywhere – on the street, at a gas station, market, in a café, or at the gym.
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The Ukrainian government has allowed Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRCs), the official term for military enlistment offices, to deliver summonses regardless of where a man’s military registration is. This means a summons can be served at a his place of residence, work or study, in public places, buildings, crowded areas, and at checkpoints and border crossings. Summonses can be distributed not only by military commissars but also by special “notification groups” that include those who are not subject to mobilization, local officials, the management of enterprises, and public institutions.
Crowds of draft dodgers
The Ukrainian authorities try to lure men to the front, but they do their best to hide. According to an ex-lieutenant colonel of Ukraine’s security service (SBU), Vasily Prozorov, the number of draft dodgers who have illegally left the country has significantly increased since the new law on mobilization was adopted. He says people have realized that the situation both at the front and in Ukraine is getting worse.
“The results (of the new mobilization law – RT) are best summed up by footage from the streets of Ukrainian cities. It clearly shows that things are going very, very badly with mobilization,” Prozorov told RIA Novosti, commenting on a video in which TRC employees are seen attempting to catch people on the streets.
Last fall, even TRC representative Yury Semchuk, as quoted by UNIAN, claimed that 99% of Ukrainian men are dodging the draft. According to Semchuk, the elite has fled and only “genetic slaves” remain in Ukraine. As an example, he told the story of a volunteer who went to the front to escape problems with his wife. Ukrainian society is being depleted and there are people who are ready to “be under anyone’s [rule],” Semchuk stated.
In April, Politico estimated that over 650,000 men of fighting age have fled Ukraine since the start of the conflict with Russia.
“The early burst of patriotic fervor which saw draft centers swamped with volunteers has evaporated. An estimated 650,000 men of fighting age have fled their country, most by smuggling themselves across the border,” the publication stated.
According to one Politico correspondent, about a third of the passengers on a train carrying him out of Ukraine were men of military age.
Ukrainians get their documents checked on a city bus near a government recruitment center on June 24,2024 in Odesa, Ukraine.
Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Igor Klimenko has also acknowledged that officials are aware of hundreds of thousands of possible draft dodgers.
Service in the armed forces has become less popular even among prisoners, according to Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Ukrainian parliament’s (Verkhovna Rada) Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence, as quoted by Ukrainskaya Pravda. Kostenko attributes this to most of the motivated having already joined the AFU. In his opinion, Ukraine will be able to mobilize about 5,000 prisoners.
The country “needs to make it possible to mobilize people who are currently in pre-trial detention. This will allow us to attract more people into the army,” he said. Kostenko confirmed that 3,800 prisoners are already serving in the AFU, most of whom have recently completed their training and some of whom have already been wounded.
The prevalence of draft-dodging varies across different Ukrainian regions. As NV wrote in mid-July, most refuseniks since the start of 2023 were from Ukraine’s western regions. In Lviv Region, the TRC issued 85,800 notices for draft evasion. Transcarpathia (54,200 notices), Ivano-Frankovsk (33,000), Ternopil (28,700), and Khmelnitsky (20,500) regions were also among the areas with the greatest number of those falling to report for duty.
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However, in Kiev just 11,400 search notices were issued during the same period, while there were 2,500 in Kharkov Region. In 2022, the greatest number of complaints (15,800) about criminal offenses committed by men eligible for military service was also filed in Lviv Region.
Masks and Telegram to the rescue
Mobilization raids have led to a game of ‘hide and seek’ between men of military age and recruitment centers. To avoid recruiters, many Ukrainian men do not leave their homes, rely on food delivery services, and carry emergency alert devices in case they are caught by conscription officers, according to the New York Times.
Aleksandr, a 36-year-old IT manager, told The Guardian that he rarely goes outside, avoids public transport, and travels only in his car. He moved to an expensive area of Kiev because usually TRCs hunt for men in poor neighborhoods. He also claimed that some of the apartment owners in his building are MPs. “The military don’t visit here. Our compound is an island of survival. To be poor in Ukraine is to be dead,” Aleksandr’s wife, Nastya, told the newspaper.
Nastya added that she is so worried about her husband of 12 years that she has begun to suffer panic attacks. “We are one organism. If he dies, I will die too. Maybe I will kill myself,” she said. The couple have supported their country and the army, and even bought a prosthesis for a soldier who lost his leg, but they believe it’s time for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
Ukrainians have also come together to help each other escape the draft. Special Telegram channels have been created where users can report where they have spotted conscription officers, so that others can avoid them. Posts on these channels are usually coded. For example, conscription officers are known as “clouds” or “rain.” A typical post might look like this: “What’s the weather like at the Defenders of Ukraine metro station?” Reply: “Three clouds covered a young guy.”
Various Ukrainian websites and online marketplaces have started selling old man masks and strap-on breasts. With some items costing over 10,000 hryvnia (just short of $250), such “life hacks” are supposed to help men avoid being caught by draft officers.
Advertisements for products to avoid mobilization in Ukrainian social networks. The captions read: “For those who haven’t left home for a long time,” and “Fake breasts, delivery all over Ukraine” © Social network
Fleeing across the border
Many Ukrainians choose to flee abroad to escape mobilization. This, however, can be no easy feat, and many men rely on difficult and sometimes dangerous routes to get out of the country. The Guardian tells the story of Miroslav, who left Ukraine on foot in October 2023. He took only a small backpack with him and walked for a day through fields and forests until he reached Hungary. At some point, he noticed border patrol officers and lay hiding in the grass for 40 minutes. Finally, he climbed through a hole in the border fence and went to a Hungarian police station. He is currently in Warsaw. “I didn’t want to fight. I’m afraid to die,” he said.
One of several escape routes used by draft dodgers is the Tisa River, which separates Ukraine and Romania. In April, the Romanian authorities claimed that since the beginning of the war, over 6,000 men have crossed the river, while 22 have died in the attempt.
This route is perilous. The fact that thousands of Ukrainians would rather risk their lives by crossing the river than joining the AFU underscores Kiev’s problems, the NYT noted.
As Sergey Lebedev, coordinator of the Nikolaev underground, told RIA Novosti, Ukrainians have come up with a new escape route via the Moldova transit zone of the Odessa-Reni highway. Cars are not allowed to stop in the area, so people leave them on the highway and run towards the Moldovan village of Palanca. Some even buy cheap vehicles to escape, which the authorities then recover. Abandoned trucks have also been spotted along the road.
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Greasing palms
The pervasive unwillingness to be enlisted has led to large-scale corruption in Ukraine: a bribe to escape mobilization ranges from $10,000 to $17,000, underground activists from various regions told RIA Novosti. The price depends on the number of intermediaries involved in the corruption scheme, the region, and the distance to the state border. Escaping from Kiev or its surroundings is most expensive.
For the kind of fees mentioned above, a person can be removed from the conscription database if he’s registered at a military enlistment office. If a person isn’t registered, help in crossing the border costs about $10,000.
However, there are no guarantees that having paid for his freedom once, a person will avoid being caught by draft officers or security forces and conscripted later.
According to Lebedev, in Nikolaev Region the average bribe to avoid conscription is $12,000.
All across Ukraine, bribes to escape military duty have soared since general mobilization in 2022. In previous years, prices ranged from $2,000 to $3,000, and until the recent tightening of mobilization laws, the price had remained stable at around $5,000.
And given recent developments in Ukraine, the price will most likely go way up.
By Christina Sizova, a Moscow-based reporter covering politics, sociology and international relations.
‘I’m afraid of dying’: How and why Ukrainian men hide from military service.
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VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RUSSIA OUGHT TO DECLARE WAR ON UKRAINE AND HAVE DONE WITH IT
The latest clear act of war by the Kiev regime against Russian territory ought to end the patience of Russia's president & military high command. Zelensky must now be taught a vital, final lesson.
The latest incursion into Russian Federation territory will perhaps result in a final end to Russian patience over such attacks, clearly acts of war.
A very clear signal to the Kiev regime in response to this latest attack is vital. Declaring war on the regime and hitting government offices wherever they have been located across Ukraine would be my choice of response.
Attacking such targets has been avoided until now as has declaring war on the regime. Clearly there are significant geopolitical risks and potentially very negative consequences which are without doubt why this has not been done till now. But it seems to me we have reached a point where declaring war and hitting these targets has become necessary no matter what those knock-on consequences for Russia may be.
Of course another reason for not declaring and waging all-out war against Ukraine is the (until now) perceived need to have someone in power there to negotiate Ukraine's eventual capitulation or peace settlement. If Russia was to eliminate Zelensky then this would create a crisis and possible power grab by the Nazis of Ukraine. Zelensky however, shows zero sign of EVER submitting to the inevitable end of this conflict. He appears totally incapable of confronting the reality of the situation. And besides, the chances are that there would be massive popular resistance in Ukraine to the Nazis taking over. They have suffered incredibly in so many ways that they are surely totally sickened by the war and crave its end.
If it is necessary for Russia to take temporary control of western Ukraine so be it. A Ukrainian president and government for Ukraine that acts pragmatically to restore peace and end the dominance of Ukrainian Nazi forces is vital. Russia would be in a position to coordinate the process of electing such entities in the first few months after Zelensky and his minions are gone. A transition to EU control would be coordinated with Brussels but with the stipulation backed by Russia’s overwhelming military power in the region that no entry to NATO by Ukraine would be permissible.
With the world largely distracted by Israel's genocidal war in Gaza and particularly in this moment by Iran's expected response to Israel's latest assassinations it may be exactly the right time to hit Zelensky and Kiev and hit them very hard.
