RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 17.05.2023
Including geopolitical issues affecting the balance of power in the ongoing end game war to establish our common future, a closely monitored prison planet or tolerance for diverse modes of governance.
THE ROAD TO THE ULTIMATE CONCLUSION OF WORLD WAR III RUNS THROUGH HERE.
Please note: We will be in various locations in Southern India for the next eight days. This will result in variations to the timing of updates and quite possibly their total absence on certain days.
*** IS IT NOW BECOMING CLEAR TO EVERYONE THAT RUSSIA WINS? ***
“Ukraine. What is the truth...?
Why won’t western media tell both sides…?”
VIRTUALLY UNREPORTED ATROCITY IN LUGANSK, 2nd JUNE 2014
A lot has been said about atrocities in the western media claimed to have been perpetrated by the Russians, for example at Bucha and Mariupol among others. These assertions are conveyed on the say so of the Ukrainian authorities. How willing though are western news broadcasters to convey atrocities attributed to the Ukrainians? The following will I think provide the answer.
If anyone wonders if they are receiving accurate coverage of the conflict in Ukraine I would suggest watching the video below of an event which occurred on the 2nd of June 2014 and ask themselves if they recall hearing about it on any mainstream media news channel at the time.
The video is harrowing to watch. The bodies (five women and three men) are real. Yet across western media there was only one single news report that occurred a day later. This was from CNN and occurred only because a CNN team happened to be nearby at the time of the atrocity and so the network could hardly ignore it as all others so obviously did.
The video below shows the unvarnished truth that was not considered newsworthy in western mainstream news.
THE SINGLE WESTERN MSM REPORT ON THE LUGANSK ATROCITY, 3rd JUNE 2014
The video at the CNN link below is the crime scene sanitised by CNN, though played straight with honest reporting on the scene not playing things to Kiev’s tune.
(There was a time early in the war in the Donbass when CNN were not afraid to contradict the Ukrainian regime in Kiev.) Watch because it's the first and last time you will see this.
5 women and 3 men died, all civilians.
Air attack on pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk kills 8, stuns residents.
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS of THE DURAN
Bad Day for Ukraine: Bakhmut Days from Fall, Missiles Pummel Kiev; Patriot Destroyed; RU Oil Exports.
ALEX CHRISTOFOROU of THE DURAN
Trump-Russia hoax. Kinzhal hits Patriot. Macron, Russia vassal to China. Sunak-Elensky BFFs. U/1
Russia destroys collective west weapons, as Zelensky tours Europe.
CNN town hall and court case makes Trump stronger.
Russia is WINNING NATO's Long War in Ukraine w/ Brian Berletic and Reporterfy Media.
JACKSON HINKLE - COLONEL DOUGLAS MACGREGOR
Ukraine CAN'T STOP Russia.
JUDGE NAPOLITANO - Lt. COL DANIEL DAVIS (RET)
Ukraine Offensive: Why It Won't Beat Putin.
STEPHEN GARDNER - COLONEL DANIEL DAVIS
UKRAINE JUST PROVOKED PUTIN.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO - LARRY JOHNSON (EX-CIA)
Putin, Prigozhin and the Wagner group.
COLONEL DOUGLAS MACGREGOR
Underestimating Russia: Arrogance and Misjudgment.
Ukraine Is DONE, Losing Bakhmut & Kiev SLAMMED.
#WATCHLIVE: RUSSIA: PUTIN/CABINET
Battle of Bakhmut, Destruction of the US Patriot air defense system, Poland vs Ukraine, India-EU…
Morning briefing of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (May 16, 2023).
❗Lesson May 16: Patriot air defense systems will not protect Kyiv from Russian Kinzhals❗
GARLAND NIXON - RAY MCGOVERN (EX-CIA)
UKRAINE, RFK JR, AND JULIAN ASSANGE AND OTHER STUFF.
Bakhmut Battle: Russian strike destroys Ukraine Army's passageway; Wagner 'kills' U.S. mercenary.
Russia laughs off Ukraine's ability to down Kinzhal missiles | U.S. 'confirms' damage to Patriot.
On Cam: Russian hypersonic missiles destroy US-made Patriot Air Defence in Ukraine's Kyiv | Watch:
Putin's diplomacy isolating US? Top commanders of South Africa, Russia huddle amid arms supply row.
THE JIMMY DORE SHOW
Massive Ukrainian Ammunition Depot Explodes – Is It Radioactive?
Zelensky wishes to mortgage his country just to satiate his ego.
THROUGH THE EYES OF...
ABOUT KATYN, WOLYN, POLAND, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA W/ ANDREI MARTYANOV.
Biden PISSED As Obama COVER UP LEAKS OUT.
Durham Report EXPOSES greatest crime in U.S. history? This was a COUP!
Trump Was Right?! What The Durham Report REALLY Means!
U.S. TOUR OF DUTY
Trump Defamation Verdict.
Dr. STEVE TURLEY
Humiliated CNN Admits Truth About Russian Collusion Hoax!
Clare Daly calls out Ursula Von Der Leyen.
Dancing on Hitler’s grave.
Beijing rejects Blinken’s remarks as ideology-driven lie, urges US to stop disinformation, meddling.
Why the US dollar will be replaced as the dominant global currency - sooner than you think.
CONTAMINATED UKRAINE: depleted uranium ammunition warehouse destroyed | liusivaya. (InSpanish.)
Article published by Russia Today (RT) - 17th May 2023:
Patriot missile base in Kiev destroyed by hypersonic strike – Moscow.
The air defense system was hit by a Kinzhal rocket, the Russian Defense Ministry has said.
A precision strike by a Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile has destroyed a Patriot air defense system in Kiev, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Tuesday. The Ukrainian government previously claimed that Kinzhal missiles had been intercepted by the US-made weapons platform.
The Russian military did not provide further details about the strike, which was the first time Moscow claimed to have hit the long-range system supplied to Ukraine by its Western backers.
Kiev reported that it had withstood a massive missile attack by Russian forces on Monday night. The Ukrainian military claimed to have intercepted six Kinzhal missiles, in addition to various other aerial targets.
The Russian ministry confirmed the attack in a daily briefing on Tuesday, stating that it had used long-range precision weapons to hit military targets, including “Ukrainian troops positions and places of storage of munitions, weapons and military hardware delivered from Western nations.”
A video circulating on social media purports to show a Patriot battery deployed in the Ukrainian capital firing several barrages of missiles at incoming Russian targets. Seconds later, a large explosion can be seen in the area.
READ MORE: Ukraine reports ‘exceptional’ Russian strikes on targets in Kiev
The Ukrainian government claimed last week that it had used a Patriot system to achieve the first-ever downing of a Kinzhal missile. The projectile is a hypersonic weapon whose speed makes it practically impossible to be intercepted.
Speaking to Russian media, anonymous sources in the Russian Defense Ministry dismissed the Ukrainian claim as “wishful thinking.” Some outlets suggested that Kiev had misidentified debris from a slower ballistic Iskander missile, which is a ground-launched weapon that shares some design features with the air-launched Kinzhal.
Article published by Russia Today (RT) - 17th May 2023 : Patriot missile base in Kiev destroyed by hypersonic strike – Moscow.
* Updates will be added here as and when they become available.
MILITARY SUMMARY UPDATE
The Final Hours Of Bakhmut | Military Summary And Analysis 2023.05.17
NWE WAR REPORTS UPDATE
Russia Controls 99 Percent of Bakhmut | Hypersonic vs. Patriot.
DEFENSE POLITICS ASIA UPDATE
[ Bakhmut Front ] WAGNER FORCES CAPTURED "NEST" SECTOR & "CONSTRUCTOR" SECTOR (ALMOST ENTIRELY).
DPA WAR UPDATE
No update posted so far today
THETI MAPPING UPDATE
No update posted so far today
BALKAN MAPPING UPDATE
No update posted so far today
FREE RUSSIA UPDATE
No update posted so far today
THE RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE UPDATE
Ukraine Russian War, Map and Events for May 16th, 2023 Finally of Bakhmut and Patriot System.
PROJECT GREAT UPDATE
Russia Is Storming Last Ukrainian Position In Bakhmut. Quick Update.
MILITARY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS UPDATE
No update posted so far today
Ukraine War Map, May 16th.
M MAPPING UPDATE
Ukranian Forces Are Withdrawing Their Troops From Bakhmut.
HISTORY OF MAKUS UPDATE
No update posted so far today
WEEB UNION UPDATE
No update posted so far today
Detailed situation reports can be found on a daily basis concerning events in Ukraine over the past 24 hours at the ‘A SKEPTIC’ Substack account:
Link to 'A SKEPTIC' Substack channel.
SUPPORTING SCOTT RITTER
I've been listening to Scott Ritter describe how things are for him and I suspect have been for him for quite some time now.
He has been doing a LOT of unpaid work with a great many interview requests coming in that he has been ready and willing to agree to. But the work where receives some pay for have suffered due to this, being left until the wee small hours of the night to complete work on.
Scott, I think you will agree, has been one of the most influential voices out there on Russia and Ukraine.
I was moved by Scott's words to take an annual subscription to his Substack account that he runs in coordination with his colleague on 'U.S. Tour of Duty', Jeff Norman. This is the main way that Scott recommends to help him with finances with which to upgrade his delivery of comment on Russia and Ukraine, via a better microphone etc. and perhaps the creation of a recording studio in his basement to create a more professional and impressive look. To invest in these things he would like to be sure that this has a viable financial future.
Would you also like to help by subscribing at one of the various levels to Scott's Substack account? I hope so. If so the link is here:
Below you'll find the edited part of the video where Scott talks of his commitments to get the facts out on events in Ukraine and of the finances that would come in handy to enhance their delivery:
VICTORY BELONGS TO RUSSIA: IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Each day that passes makes a conclusive Russian victory in the Donbass and beyond more certain. As Russia bolsters her forces, and weaponry, those of Ukraine decrease. Russian forces gain ready access to rest and recuperation as troop numbers increase. The increasingly exhausted and demoralised Ukrainian troops have an ever decreasing prospect of such respite. This situation is likely to bring them to complete breakdown as Russia unleashes the firepower of the more modern and advanced weaponry that is arriving with the newly mobilised Russian troops.
The various Ukrainian offensives are now weak when confronted by the reinforced Russian lines. A few futile efforts achieve quite miserable results before fire reigns down on the Ukrainian troops and they are forced back to their starting positions.
And now, all this being said, we have arrived at the wet, and later, freezing conditions where these pathetic Ukrainian forces will be subject to myriad forms of abject misery with death and injury all around them while they lie sodden or frozen, abandoned to their fate by Kiev.
The pitiable young and old of Ukraine have been frogmarched to their deaths as cannon-fodder while the bestial elites of the collective West urge their "president" to add more to their number there at the gates of Hell and their doom. We must feel for the majority of them as they are not the Nazis we revile, in most part they are decent men, fathers, sons, brothers, husband and uncles, who no doubt saw through the coup of 2014 for what it was. But sadly, their fate seems sealed.
Nothing will stop Russia now. Every factor favours them. Victory will be Russia's. In Donbass and beyond and in due course across the world.
Victory belongs to Russia: It is now only a matter of time.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPDATES TO BE ADDED HERE AS AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UKRAINE: CURRENT FACTORS, SOUGHT DOMINANCE AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
Currently, as of mid-May 2023 the situation in Ukraine is approximately, and in brief, as follows:
The Russian military has taken a broad swathe of territory in the Donbass directly by the Russian border. The safeguarding of the Donbass region’s population from attack by Kiev forces, which it has been since Spring 2014 is a primary goal of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. Approximately 70% of this goal has been accomplished with approximately 60% of the territory falling into the Russian military’s hands relatively easily within the first 6 months of the campaign. In approximately the last 8 months however, progress has been far slower as resistance from the deeply embedded Ukrainian forces has required a much more sustained campaign, including the targeting of many diverse areas of those structures (energy, fuel and transport) that underpin the forward military structures including manpower and weaponry.
The present situation sees the Russian forces (both Wagner and regular Russian army along with the Russian air force) fighting a war of attrition where the gaining of territory is secondary to the reduction of Ukrainian manpower and its potentiality to fight. Ukrainian forces are generally defending, however, in recent weeks a counteroffensive by them has been expected and some signs indicate that it may now be underway in one form or another, currently in tentative and exploratory form in most cases, along the battlefront.
It is clear that the collective west, the USA, UK and their allies in Europe are working to the maximum to support the Kiev regime in its efforts to fight the Russian forces who have been making incremental gains in the Donbass, to refuse to give ground, and ultimately to push the Russian forces back beyond the borders of Ukraine as they were before February 24th 2022 when Russia’s military operation began. And subsequently demand the return of the Crimean peninsula within the borders of Ukraine.
The Russian operation has been categorised by an incremental increasing level of force while seeking at each stage to encourage the Kiev regime to negotiate a settlement, reflecting as its basis the agreements made by the regime in the process of the Minsk Accords of 2015. Pressure is now building within the Russian population for their leaders to take a much more forceful approach by waging a full scale war aganst the regime in Kiev rather than continue in the limited campaign seen to date.
The Kiev regime continue to refuse negotiations, only demanding that Russia withdraw and effectively surrender all gains, a position which the Russian authorities naturally reject. The western powers continue to back the regime in this stance of rejecting meaningful negotiations and continue to advocate a military solution whereby Ukraine makes sufficient gains to provide it with as strong a negotiating position as possible for the negotiations which must inevitably end the conflict at some future date. The western powers continue to supply ever more powerful weapons to the regime, including missiles from the United Kingdom capable of hitting targets with the borders of the Russian Federation.
Having covered the present, what of the future?
Scenario 1 - A complete Ukrainian victory.
In this scenario the Ukrainian forces mount an effective counteroffensive which ends with Russia losing its access to the southern regions of the Donbass in the neighbourhood of the Crimean peninsula and there is every sign that they will not be able to regain control on any acceptable basis regarding manpower or timescale. At the suggestion of Kiev, negotiations begin which eventuate in Russia giving up all the territory it has taken since February 24th 2022 along with its claim to the Crimean peninsula.
Scenario 2 - A complete Russian victory.
In this scenario the Russian forces succeed in taking all remaining cities, towns and villages in the Donbass region. This comes about through a general collapse within the Ukrainian military and within the regime itself. This results in the general capitulation of the Kiev regime. Following this collapse it is recognised that the remaining territory left to Ukraine cannot sustain itself in any viable form and must be divided into protectorates. These protectorates will be governed by authorities in Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, ostensibly on a temporary basis until a viable Ukrainian state can once again sustain itself. Russia proceeds to rebuild its new territories and provide the new Russian citizens there with all Russian health, education, pension and all other benefits due to Russian citizens.
In this scenario Russia can then decide whether to conclude its campaign with the retention in perpetuity of the four republics, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhia or, of taking all the largely undefended and undefendable land up to the eastern bank of the Dnieper River, splitting the country formally known as Ukraine virtually in two.
Scenario 3 - A partial Ukrainian victory.
In this scenario the Ukrainian military achieves the outcome delineated in Scenario 1 but without the subsequent negotiations providing the regime with a result that conforms to its absolutist aim of driving Russia from all the territories it has taken plus Crimea.
Russia responds to the loss of land through the Ukrainian counteroffensive by regrouping and then taking the fight once more to the entrenched Ukrainian forces. A campaign is fought to retake the lost lands, the end result of which depends on the comparative strengths of the two armies.
If Ukraine, backed by the western powers, manages to resist all Russian attempts to retake the territory lost to it during the Ukrainian counteroffensive then negotiations would then likely be initiated. In this scenario however, Russia insists upon retaining all other territory gained and held since February 24th 2022. Ukraine then has two choices, accept this or abandon negotiations and renew its attempts to push Russia out of all its areas of control within the boundaries of Ukraine as they were in 2014.
If Russia manages to retake the land lost to Ukraine during its counteroffensive, pushing its forces back to their position before its offensive and perhaps further still then the prospects for Ukraine to achieve even a partial victory at that point appear exceptionally slim. Having suffered undoubtedly severe losses during its counteroffensive and with the western powers finding themselves unable to any longer replenish Ukrainian losses in terms of weaponry it is hard to see how the regime could continue to resist Russian demands that it capitulate.
Scenario 4 - A partial Russian victory.
In this scenario the Russian forces repel the Ukrainian counteroffensive inflicting losses on its forces but in less degree that would undermine the Kiev regime’s ability to sustain its resistance. The conflict continues on the same basis as now with Russia making incremental territorial gains while steadily reducing the manpower and weaponry of the Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile the western powers upgrade and escalate their involvement, delivering additional support to Kiev which delivers effects upon Russia that are powerful enough to allow Ukraine to negotiate effectively. At the subsequent negotiations Russia concedes certain territories while Ukraine does the same. For example only, Russia then retains control only of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions plus Crimea while giving up control of the Kherson and Zaporozhia regions.
The above scenarios all depend on several major factors for their potential unfolding. The most major of these are the use of ever more powerful weapons and the extent to which they hit targets not engaged to any degree to date.
If Ukraine receives the F16 fighter jets it has repeatedly asked for and uses them (or other lethal weaponry) to cause havoc within the borders of the Russian Federation and if Russia responds in kind then major shifts in the above scenarios will inevitably take place. Escalation of any kind rather than movements toward negotiations will move the outcome of these scenarios in one direction or another, culminating in the final destructive nature of the conflicts end when some negotiated settlement becomes unavoidable.