THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF PLANET EARTH
The title of this commentary is perhaps overly dramatic, however, the reality we can observe is not far short of these words. The situation might more accurately be described as the battle to decide which geopolitical paradigm will govern our planet for all humanity’s future existence.
The grouping generally known as the West, i.e. The USA and its allies has one vision for our planet’s future. The grouping generally known as Eurasia, i.e. China, Russia and their allies has another.
The war, for it is a war, to establish which geopolitical future will dominate in all future years is being fought here and now and is currently coming to a major crisis point.
The Eurasian view can broadly be described as follows:
A tolerance for all types of governance.
A lack of any intention to change the form of governance in any nation.
The building of trust and cooperation through investment and trade.
The resolution of inter-country problems through negotiation.
The rejection of war as a method of resolving inter-country problems.
The western view can broadly be described as follows:
An intolerance for certain types of governance.
A constant intention to change the form of governance of certain nations.
The use of trade sanctions and financial penalties to change nations.
The use of any means, overt or covert to undermine adversaries.
The use of invasion and war where it is deemed necessary.
These, in broad outline, are the two futures for the world that are being fought for now.
Which side is most aggressive and which is most passive in this war?
It ought to be clear to anyone at all versed in geopolitics that one side of the two named above is predominantly most aggressive in its modus operandi. Only one side has a relatively openly stated mission requiring other nations to comply or face the consequences. Only one side tends to sit in judgement on the other and mandate various punishments for its conduct.
The USA and its allies conceive themselves to occupy the moral high ground on almost every issue. The elites of these nations conceive themselves as having a mission to intervene in other nations and that this in fact amounts to a duty to mankind. These and other beliefs within western nations are not restricted to their political elites but are to be found generally and specifically within their mainstream media. In total the elites of these nations, both political and within their mainstream media outlets compose the army waging this war against those they have come to demonize.
The Eurasian powers by contrast, coming from a traditionally lower power base in general seek to increase their trading capacity, build both social and economic infrastructure and in general look after their own internal affairs. Due to the efforts of the West however, they have both begun to reinforce their security and sovereignty through various means. In the most recent times the attitudes previously seen where efforts were made to negotiate some degree of partnership with the West, are now being abandoned.
The two hot spots where these two visions for the future meet and fight for those future states are Taiwan for China and Ukraine for Russia.
The struggle to assert national sovereignty and security for both China and Russia centre very much on these two locations and red lines are being drawn up by them to send a clear message to the West.
The signs are currently that the elites of the western world have chosen to ignore these red lines and look set to deny them validity with a dangerously high degree of contempt. With China and Russia fast coming to the conclusion that any words they expend on these issues directed at the West are useless we now arrive at the most dangerous situation for the entire world since the Cuban Missile Crisis of the Sixties.
The next several months, unless one side or the other backs down and resigns itself to not achieving its goals, appear to inevitably presage open warfare of one kind or another. Whether the military force used will be limited in character and so limit the loss of life and destruction of infrastructure remains to be seen.
Whatever the next few months bring it appears certain that neither side in this conflict can afford to back down completely. The vision for our common planetary future as conceived by either side is clearly incompatible. Yet only one side sees its mission as destroying the other. Only the USA, aided by its allies uses threats, sanctions, invasion and war as standard means to coerce obedience to its will. While China and Russia may have used aspects of these policies in the past and the possibility of their use for strictly limited present needs currently they do not represent a continuing modus operandi for the indefinite future.
The world stands at an extremely dangerous moment in our common future. Two entirely different and largely opposed visions for every generation to come are struggling to assert themselves. On one side there is an attempt to overcome all barriers to gain an acceptance of certain attributes asserted to be of the highest moral and ethical character and a determination to do whatever is necessary to intervene worldwide to achieve this goal. On the other is a willingness to tolerate political diversity and to build relationships based on trust built from trade, mutual dependency and cultural exchange.
Only time will tell which of these visions predominate. A world brought to heel by the USA and its allies and strictly monitored from space, or a world where tolerance of diversity and peaceful relations predominate.
It is possible that the next several months will provide the first major clues to which of these visions we will see predominate and be the clear geopolitical paradigm for all future generations.