THERE WILL BE A NEW BEGINNING FOR UKRAINE

All wars end in negotiations leading to a ceasefire, then peace. With peace comes an accommodation between the two sides where over time the situation between them begins to normalise.

Vladimir Putin continues to reiterate that he is ready to authorise talks with the aim of arriving at a settlement with Ukraine that once more brings peace and begins the reconcilliation process. 

Putin, in my opinion, is doing something that is eminently sensible. 

I believe he knows that new elections will be held in Ukraine once a peace settlement is agreed and that these will in fact ultimately be the main factor leading to a renewed peace. Those elections, he knows, will bring to power Ukrainian politicians seeking a permanent peace with Russia and , to establish this, permanent neutrality. Such a government will not be at all inclined to join NATO. This would be wholly against their interests and the interest of the Ukrainian people as a whole.

The Ukrainian people, heartily sick of the war, certainly wish an end to the possibility of any future war. They will thus vote into power political representatives who they trust to ensure no such future war with Russia begins.

Russia is already renewing infrastructure in all the lands that have recently become part of the Russian Federation, and is bringing to the people there all the many social, financial and health benefits that all citizens of the Russian Federation enjoy. The people in these new regions will prosper and many Ukrainians from western Ukraine seeking work will migrate there. It is inevitable that trade between Ukraine and Russia will gradually recommence once a permanent peace is established and in even greater measure than before. 

The situation between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably gradually normalise. There will eventually be no significant antagonism between the two as the years roll by as brother and sister Slavic nations of Ukraine and Russia recommit to peace. I believe Putin knows all this and that is why he has said again that under the right circumstances he is ready to have negotiations begin that can lead to a settlement.

Some may say he should keep fighting to take all the territory up to eastern bank of the Dnieper River. This would have the benefit of creating a buffer between western Ukraine and what would be territory of the Russian Federation. Yet in fact no such zone would exist due to the fact that the territory east of the Dnieper would naturally also be part of Russia and in the years to come, if the war was continued, would inevitably be attacked. So where is the gain? Where is peace to be permanently established in this scenario?

Others will say he should urge the Russian army to take the entirety of Ukraine. This would obviate the problem in the case above where Russian territory continues to be attacked. Yet the problem of ruling a nation of ethnic Ukrainians who bitterly resent their Russian occupiers should be obvious. Russia would be in no end of trouble with the resistance which would follow and would be made to expend continuing and possibly unsustainable amounts of money to maintain its control.

So where to stop? It seems to me that, with the view that things would normalise eventually wherever you stop (as described above) it may well be an arbitrary place on the map. So why not stop now? Of course the greatest risk is that the Ukrainian regime will refuse entirely to countenance Russia remaining in control of all the territory it has now. This would very definitely be the sticking point. For this reason it is unlikely that Putin’s current proposal to have a negotiated peace settlement will bear any fruit. As long as Zelensky remains in power it appears that the war will continue, determined as he insists he is, that Russia must give up all its newly won territories.

The crucial factor ultimately will be the western powers insisting to Zelelensky that he MUST start talks because they are no longer willing to supply the finance and weapons to support his war effort. Currently there are few signs that the West is willing to take this step. But what a new administration in the USA and potentially in the UK would do on seeing the futility of supplying these into the indefinite future is hard to predict. Though I see it as inevitable that at a future, unidentifiable date after upcoming elections, that the awareness of futility in going down the same road and only losing ever more in terms of finance, weaponry and territory within Ukraine will hit home hard. And then we will quickly see negotiations followed by a permanent peace finally arrive.

Then, as I see it, the prospects of a new beginning for Ukraine cannot help but also arrive.