TRUMP’S PLAN FOR UKRAINE & RUSSIA’S HARD BARGAIN TO ESTABLISH LASTING PEACE
Trump expects both sides to gain something. But when one side irrevocably wins, then that side gets to decide what it wants, and sets conditions the other side must fulfil.
It isn’t official yet but something more than hints are being delivered through legacy news media regarding Trump’s plan to end the Ukraine war.
It appears very likely that Trump, after discussing every possible option with advisers, will opt for something close to the following:
Russia to (at the very least) retain Crimea & most likely, all liberated territory to date.
Ukraine to wait twenty years before joining NATO.
Zelensky is 100% certain to reject 1.
Putin is 100% certain to reject 2.
Zelensky knows he risks assassination at the hands of the Ukrainian ultranationalists if he makes even the slightest move in his position on ceding land to Russia.
Putin has said ever since the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO was raised by George W. Bush at a NATO conference in Bucharest in 2008, that Russia could not tolerate Ukraine joining NATO under any circumstances.
If Trump’s plan looks anything like points 1. and 2. above, then there will be no immediate 24-hour success concerning the Ukraine war as Trump has bragged.
If Zelensky was replaced however, then the prospect of success for Trump’s plan increase enormously. In this scenario Putin would certainly insist on an approach with an even greater focus on reality.
What might this look like?
Russia retention in perpetuity of the Crimean peninsula, all territory liberated by Russia to the date of negotiations plus the entirety of regions only partially taken thus far. (All new territory to be officially recognized as now part of the Russian Federation.)
A lifting of all western sanctions on Russia.
A return of all Russian assets and monies previously frozen and stolen by the West.
Compensation in full by the West to Russian companies and individuals for the loss of money, markets and potential profits lost through the western sanctions regime.
Ukraine’s constitution changed immediately to no longer contain any reference to joining NATO.
A formally authorized assurance by Ukraine that it will never seek to join NATO and will remain a neutral state in perpetuity. (This to be ratified at every level including by the United Nations.)
The restriction of the Ukrainian military to 30,000 individuals.
A program set in place to outlaw armed militias within Ukraine and to disarm and, in certain specified cases, jail radical, ultra nationalistic elements holding such weapons.)
A complete ban on foreign powers deploying their troops or military assets on the territory of Ukraine without authorisation from the Russian government.
Free movement of the citizens of the Donbass within the newly redrawn boundaries of Ukraine.
Restoration of the Russian language as the second official language of Ukraine.
Full compensation under the law by the Ukrainian government and its western sponsors for the families in the Donbass whose members died or were injured during the decade of Ukrainian bombardment from 2014 to the end of the war.
A fulsome apology to the families in point 8 above by the new Ukrainian president and government along with all the western sponsors of the previous Ukrainian president and government.
A fulsome apology to the citizens, president and government of Russia by Ukraine’s western sponsors.
NATO to withdraw all its forces to positions where they stood in 1990 at the time of the reunification of Germany as negotiated by Michael Gorbachev of the Soviet Union and never thereafter move an inch further east.
An immediate start to the devising of a comprehensive security architecture for Europe including Russia.
Naturally there would be horse-trading on all points above though Russia would certainly, having decisively and incontrovertibly won the war in Ukraine, play hardball, and seek to achieve acceptance of all points above and to maximum degree, before agreeing and implementing its campaign against the Zelensky regime, NATO and its western sponsors.
In return Russia would offer no opposition to Ukraine joining the European Union unhindered.
The above points reflect the normal conclusion to a war where an outright victory has been achieved and the losing side has capitulated. Nothing more should be expected either by the Ukrainian authorities or their sponsors.
You can see how far from reality Trump’s plan is likely to be. What likelihood is there that the present Kiev authorities and in particular the Ukrainian president would agree to any of the points above. It is surely clear that Zelensky must go before there is any realistic prospect of ANY progress toward an ending of hostilities. With Zelensky gone and a pragmatic leadership in power in Kiev then and only then does the prospect of an end to the war emerge. This will be no 24 fix as Trump claims. One way or another Putin, Russia and above all others, the Russian military, will be the determining factor that will conclusively end this war and finally, bring peace.
What about the Ukrainian Nazi problem? That will need to be addressed.