UKRAINE INCREASINGLY RISKS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARING AS A VIABLE STATE
Ukraine is running out of time. Regimes since 2014 have put its entire existence at risk along with their western sponsors. They have together run the risk of Ukraine disappearing from the world map.
Even before the start of the Ukrainian regime’s doomed offensive the losses in manpower and machines have been enormous. As Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission blurted out some twelve months or so ago, at the very least 100,000 Ukrainian troops had already died. In fact that figure, when including the severely wounded, is more likely to be more like 200,000 or above. In addition, almost every military vehicle of importance that Ukraine had prior to February 24th 2022 has been destroyed and those western weapons supplied are less reliable by far for the conditions on the battlefield or in terms of air defence.
After some five days of Ukraine’s offensive against Russian lines upwards of 5,000 Ukrainian troops had either died or been seriously wounded. In addition, hundreds of military vehicles, including many of the most recent additions to Ukraine’s armoury from western nations had been destroyed. Russia completely overpowered a Ukrainian army that is now mostly composed of forced conscripts and reservists. It is estimated that at least 125,000 Ukrainian troops either died or were severely wounded during the failed offensive.
The Ukrainians being sent now as cannon fodder to the front lines and made to face Russian lines are barely trained at all. The professional forces that Russia faced in the initial stages have been taken off the battlefield, killed or wounded. By comparison, Russia’s troops are highly trained, even the 300,000 extra troops that were ushered into the active forces had previously served and were given many months of refresher training to prepare them for this fight. It appears around 1,500 Russians are volunteering for military training each and every day now. Meanwhile in Ukraine men have to be dragged forcibly off the street for a week or two’s training before being sent to die on the front lines. The average time given to these raw recruits is four hours. *This estimate was given by a Ukrainian officer at the front.)
Russia is steadily grinding down the new, poorly trained Ukrainian conscripts along with the few remaining foreign volunteers and sheepdipped NATO troops that remain, frostbitten and exhausted who face them now. Young and old Ukrainians, mobilised by force and barely given two week’s training are largely innocent victims of the western powers who continue to push for some kind of “success” story no matter the cost in human lives or misery.
There was never truly any hope for the hapless Ukrainian caught up as pawns in the western game against Russia. Never any real hope for anything even remotely resembling a victory over Russia. This was a goal and cause that was hopeless from the start due to the vast differences in the resources each side could bring to bear.
Russia, in addition to all of the above has a powerful array of new weapons which can be used to devastating effect. Hypersonic missiles, glide bombs and a diverse range of drones that are being made ever more powerful and whose range is being worked on constantly and increased. Russia is applying ever more recently developed weapons as the conflict goes on, the most recent being a remotely operated mine laying device. This appears currently to be a chief cause of major destruction being inflicted upon Ukrainian military vehicles of all kinds.
The energy production capacity of Ukraine along with its air defence system are nearing total degradation and once complete Russia looks very likely to use its now 700,000-strong army to sweep all before it in some form of upcoming winter offensive.
The Ukrainian air defence system, apart from around Kiev, appears to have been rendered almost useless giving Russia virtual freedom of the skies. Even around Kiev Russia has degraded the air defence system, in recent times taking out at least two hyper-expensive Patriot systems.
You have to wonder what the Ukrainians are banking on right now. They can keep throwing men forward, mostly at this point barely trained for a month, usually less. Men up to the age of 70. Women too no doubt. And what will they achieve exactly? They might hold back the highly trained Russian military with its far superior artillery power and now extensive experience for a limited period. But that Russian military is firing between six and ten times as many shells on any given day in, day out basis, decimating Ukrainian troop numbers. Meanwhile the Ukrainian military is reduced to relying on FPV drones as their artillery shell supply has all but dried up.
Russia may soon mount her own offensive, no one knows Russian plans. Or, Russia may simply continue to grind down the Ukrainian army, moving forward incrementally before grinding down the next line of resistance, on and on..
So, what exactly can be achieved by Ukraine in these circumstances?
With the supply of money, machines and ammunition from the USA drying up and highly doubtful from this point on Ukraine will have to rely on handouts and supplies from the UK and EU. These nations have done what they could in the past to the best of their ability, however, their stockpiles are now largely empty and the resistance to endlessly supplying Ukraine is growing. Both Hungary and Slovakia now favour negotiations to end the conflict rather than endlessly fuelling it.
No matter which supposed 'game-changer' weapon was given to the Ukrainians the Russian military has still relentlessly ground on and we can be assured it will continue to grind on. This is because Russia HAS to do so... because its very sovereignty and security is at stake.
Barack Obama said years ago that Russia had, “escalatory dominance” and this is even more true today with the expanded military and enhanced weaponry she now has. Russia has an enormous capacity to wage war. Its industry is now even more geared up to destroy Ukraine than at any previous time. Russia is not going to lose this conflict. It cannot afford to and it has all the capacity it needs to win. Sooner or later Ukraine will crack.
Delay in negotiating a settlement by the Kiev regime will have the following consequences:
Even more Ukrainians will die.
Even more Ukrainian territory will be lost.
There is a third to add to these two. Ukraine is likely to be parcelled up into pieces, one protectorate taken by Poland, another by Hungary and a third by Romania. This would mean not only the virtual end of Ukraine as a viable nation but perhaps the removal of its name completely from the map of the world.
These are the realities. It seems the only reason they cannot be faced by those pushing for ever more war is that they cannot face the political humiliation of defeat. But that humiliation is coming... no matter what they do.
There is simply no way Russia will give up on the task of taking all the villages, towns and cities within the Donbass region. Too much hinges on this. During the battle for Bakhmut Ukrainian hospitals were receiving on average 150 casualties per day with amputations commonplace. Across the battlefield it has been estimated that Ukraine is losing between 500 and 1000 troops per day. This is not sustainable.
Russia is pounding Ukrainian defence positions to dust, mostly from a distance. It suits the Russian military high command to do so as the object is to eliminate as much of the Ukrainian military as possible, to put them into one "meat grinder"after another. The primary object overall is to eliminate as much of the enemy as possible, not necessarily to take territory.
Ukraine stands no chance of retaining anywhere much in the days and weeks ahead. Another 380,000 Russian troops have arrived in the rear with the very latest modern weaponry at their disposal. Russia is readying its military for the final period of fighting that will progressively hit Ukrainian positions, logistic centres, repair shops, warehouses, arms dumps and as can be seen in recent weeks, air defence, mercenary barracks, and (NATO) command centres.
There is no possible way Ukraine can do anything significant in response against the now expanded Russian forces... especially as its western sponsors are running extremely low on weapons and munitions. The fact that Russia has moved into economic growth while the western nations attacking it are increasingly going into recession is yet another factor spelling defeat for both the Kiev regime and its sponsors. Now, with a new hotspot having opened up in the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on shipping heading to Israel the price of oil is moving steadily upward. This will mean even more cash for Russian state coffers.
Russia tried to find a peaceful way by which the mixed marriage Russian-Ukrainian population of eastern Ukraine could retain their language, pro-Russian culture and allegiances in the face of the president and government they by majority had elected being ousted by means of an insurrection. The people in that region of Ukraine had expected that change would come through the democratic process, not through a rioting mob. Nevertheless, Putin worked tirelessly for the best part of a decade to keep the Donbass region within Ukraine while seeking autonomy for it.
The events which took place on Maidan Square in Kiev shocked and horrified everyone in eastern Ukraine. They knew with confidence what was to come. They knew for instance that those who had taken power were those who had failed to secure their positions by democratic means. They knew also that their language, allegiances, pro-Russian culture and indeed their lives were at threat and that henceforth they and their children down the generations would never again experience the ability to reliably cast their vote and have the government they favoured be elected to power.
Thus Russia, finally, after seeking peace for all the years previously, was finally driven to take its current action, now approaching its second year. No one should be in any doubt that Russia will bring about the resolution of all issues it sought to solve for almost a decade previously. The determination to do this is overwhelmingly strong as the knowledge of how disastrous any other outcome would be for Russia drives them on. And drives them on with complete confidence in the ultimate outcome.
The best way forward now would be for both the Ukrainian regime and its western backers to cut their losses and resign themselves to the fact that Russia has won. They need to acknowledge this fact and begin negotiations that provide Russia with everything it asked for before this all began, something that the West precipitated by refusing to acknowledge that both Russia and the Russian-speaking people of the Donbass had every right to the same level of security that NATO was created to provide the nations of the collective west.
If the above is not embarked upon very soon by western leaders in recognition of the facts and inevitable outcome described then Ukraine may very well sink from history as a nation by disappearing completely as a viable state.
