UKRAINE: ITS RECENT HISTORY, CURRENT REALITY & CONCLUSION
An occasional assessment of the battlefield in regard to the Russian Special Military Operation.
The Ukraine war is reaching a critical stage. Crucial aspects of western narratives are now being questioned. The reality is at last being discussed rather than western propaganda fantasies.
The West, through the agency of the Ukrainian regime, manipulated the Russian Federation president and administration into beginning its special military operation on February 24th 2022.
The operation to take the Donbass was in order to safeguard the Russian-speaking population there from the then eight year attacks upon them by the Ukrainian military and associated militias.
The special military operation was initiated with great reluctance, with Russia attempting to resolve the situation between the nations diplomatically. The object of the operation was to have the Ukrainian regime fulfill its agreed obligations according to the protocols the Ukrainian authorities signed in Minsk which were subsequently ratified at the United Nations. The Ukrainians reneged on this diplomatic initiative and forswore the road to peace, choosing war instead.
Russia’s special military operation sought to bring the Ukrainians back to the negotiating table and implement the obligations it had signed up to. As well as preserving the rights of the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass region to live in autonomy as they wished, Russia’s campaign also had the goal of preventing Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO and thus a permanent threat to the Russian state and to the people of Russia.
Every effort was made by the Russian authorities for over almost a decade to find a peaceful resolution to the situation that began, at western insistence in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital in the winter of 2013-14. All efforts by Russia to find a peaceful, diplomatic pathway to a peaceful resolution were thwarted by the western powers who saw an opportunity to weaken Russia, possibly bring about regime change there and break the Russian Federation into pieces divided by ethnic differences.
The western powers believed that their economic sanctions regime along with the large amount of financial and human resources Russia would need in its war against the Ukrainian regime would break Russia. Instead, across all areas, military and economic Russia has grown stronger. Russia is now pressing forward faster than at any time since the initial months of its special military operation, Ukrainian military forces are buckling, desertions are becoming ever more frequent and the number deserting is steadily increasing.
The Future Positive Aspects of the SMO:
Russia is unlikely to be stopped from attaining its goals. The desire to do so is clear and the existential need to do so underpins that desire. To date Russia has been achieving those goals and will be the ultimate winner of this war that it never wished to wage. Attempts to freeze the conflict with a view to re-arming and re-constituting Ukraine’s armed forces will not be accepted by Russia. Russia will instead almost certainly press forward with its military campaign and outright victory followed by a permanent peace with a new president and government elected in what remains of Ukraine.
Some question why it has taken Russia so long to gain a conclusive victory in Ukraine. This question emanates from an ignorance of the realities on the ground that existed on February 24th 2022 when Russia began its special military operation in Ukraine.
The two Ukrainian regimes since the Maidan coup in winter 2013-14 were given every possible technical, economic and military assistance to build the most hardened defense systems ever seen. These stretched over 1,000 kilometers in serried ranks using the super-hard structures built during Soviet times along with extensive new trench systems. The combined effect was an ultra-strong barrier from which to attack the Russian-speaking people of the Donbass region who they sought to ethnically cleanse or even commit outright genocide upon.
It has taken to now, four years long, to break through the massive Ukrainian defenses partly because Russia, unlike the USA and its allies does not use maximal attack methods that inevitably result in large civilian casualties. This goal, a long four years after the start of the SMO is now finally all but accomplished. Within the next six months the conclusive breakthrough where there is no going back for the Kiev regime will most probably be seen to occur.
Those on the other side of the border from Russia, in Ukraine are considered by Russians brother and sister Slavs and there is no wish on any Russian’s part to harm them if this can possibly be avoided. Hence the movement of Russian forces has been characterized by a slow forward process using a careful approach of steady attrition of the Ukrainian military forces. This saves Russian lives and those of the local population. While fighting in this gradual way of steady attrition supply-line logistics can be fr more easily maintained than engaging in big arrow maneuver warfare where flanks are exposed.
An Alternate View Taking Into Account Ukraine’s Flamingo Missile:
The situation in Ukraine hangs in the balance with the increasing, precision use of Ukraine’s Flamingo missile. Although long term we can remain optimistic for a Russian victory a total victory is now far less sure and may well e unattainable. There is greater pressure on Russia now to settle for the territory now in Russian hands. It appears that Russia may not have the manpower to take and hold the maximum amount of territory that was originally envisioned.
The staying power of the Ukrainians is undoubtedly surprising Putin and the Russian high command. This is of course massively bolstered by the dedicated support of most western nations as well as an undoubtedly massive mercenary force. For instance there appear to be many thousands of Colombians fighting for the regime. In addition it is clear that Ukraine has been supplied with cruise missile technology. The Ukrainian military (no doubt with significant technical help from western nations) is now able to hit targets 1,000 kilometers and more inside Russia. With western intelligence providing extremely precise guidance Ukraine is now precisely hitting targets deep into Russia.
The area of land already in Russian hands is without doubt enough to accommodate the population numbers who will wish to live there. Taking all the way to the far borders of the regions Russia wants appears unnecessary and may not be feasible requiring much time and inevitable losses along the way.
The Europeans are currently quite obviously pulling out all the stops to make Russia pay an extraordinarily high price. They appear ready to take more risks than before in an effort to do this. They have been talking in recent days of sending non-combat forces into Ukraine. It is certain however that a great many Europeans and some Americans have been fighting in Ukraine for years, de-badged special forces and regular army. They know this is a crucial moment, the precise time to hit Russia as hard as possible in an attempt to make the Russian negotiators limit their demands and settle for less than previously demanded.
Looking at what remains to be done and the cost of doing it may well be best for Putin to call it a day along the current line of contact. Or at the very least create as impregnable as possible barrier at this point. If this was done there would of course be massive disappointment due to failure on multiple issues. The West would not have been made to agree to negotiate a new security architecture including Russia, NATO would remain exactly where it is, not withdrawing as Putin wants. Ukraine would not have been forced to remain out of NATO. Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and other major cities would remain in Ukraine. Slavyansk and Kramatorsk staying in Ukraine would be extremely painful for those who have fought against the Ukrainian military since 2014 and who were forced to give up the city in 2015.
There is no sign of Zelensky or the Ukrainian forces giving up any time soon and Zelensky has indicated he sees another three years at least of conflict in prospect. The Russian economy has slowed down over the last six to nine months and it may struggle to maintain growth in an unpredictable global omarket due to factors such as Trump administration policies.
All in all, doubts do exist that Russia can manage to sustainably achieve all its goals as repeatedly set out by Putin. It may be too hard and drawn out a fight and, short of an outright victory many, if not all, of those goals outside of those of territory, may ultimately be out of reach.
After an early settlement EU and NATO may well bring what’s left of Ukraine under a greater level of control, civilizing it and making it far less of a threat to Russia than previously has been the case and as is the case now. Of course NATO would be on Russia’s doorstep, the thing Putin most wishes to avoid, but being on the doorstep of the NEW Russian territories is very different from being on Russians OLD borders. That fact of further distance from Russia’s primary borders could well offset many earlier fears.
In short it may be optimum for Russia to settle sooner rather than later.
The Near Future.
Ukraine:
Unless an agreement can be found to end this conflict now then it is inevitable that the following will be the immediate course ahead. Slowly, consistently, and with great care Russia moves forward to an inevitable, final, and conclusive victory where a permanent peace settlement between the two nations will finally be agreed. At that point the road to recovering some semblance of stability in the region will begin.
Those in what remains of Ukraine will elect a president and government that seeks peace and reconciliation with Russia rather than one that continually beats the drums of war. A fresh start for Ukraine will begin with economic help from all sides. Slowly but surely it will emerge as a peaceful neighbor for Russia as she once was before the Maidan coup of 2014.
Novorossiya:
The Russian population of the new territories now stably and permanently within the Russian Federation will steadily experience the life of peace they have long sought. Conditions will be seen to be increasingly positive with the population there receiving all the many benefits of Russian citizenship. Infrastructure, already being massively improved will improve still further all across the new regions. Those living in the areas previously devastated by Ukrainian shelling will rise anew, all eagerly greeting the new Russian dawn rising before them.
Conclusion:
The nightmare of the Russo-Ukrainian war may be finally ending. Whatever plans Trump may have had when he took office in January 2025 this war looks most likely to be settled on the battlefield. The advent of the Flamingo missile however, has provided Ukraine at the end of a long line of so-called ‘gamechanger’ weapons with one that just might be true to that title. This could potentially alter the balance of the war significantly. If Russia more frequently deploys the Oreshnik missile however then the balance would once again swing back in Russia’s favor. This is a war Russia never wanted and which it has reluctantly engaged in. But it is a war it most certainly will win, even if that victory does not achieve for Russia every single goal for which it was waged.
UKRAINE: ITS RECENT HISTORY, CURRENT REALITY & CONCLUSION
