UKRAINE, RUSSIA, CHINA, USA, EUROPE & A TIME OF GREATLY ENHANCED CLARITY
We are approaching a time of enhanced clarity. This may appear counter-intuitive in this moment of western elite furore where accusations against Putin and Russia are flying by the hour. Yet this is an integral part of the clarification process where two distinct and widely divergent approaches to living on this planet become precisely defined.
Up to this point in time there has been a degree of to and fro between these sides where some agreement, albeit sketchy and quite unreliable at times, was achieved. The elites of the western world over the last ten to twenty years were not happy to leave the situation as is however, but quite clearly wished to push their vision for the world and enforce it on all others. This is essentially what has brought us to this moment.
Having applied the maximum possible patience for the last 15 years toward a western world seeking to enforce its domination on nations including but not exclusive to Russia, Vladimir Putin reached an impasse around which he could not steer Russia. This impasse was the coup on Kiev's Maidan in the winter of 2013-14 and all that followed up to and including the most recent violent provocations perpetrated by the Kiev regime.
His action on the 21st of February to acknowledge the sovereign status of the Donetsk Peoples Republic and Lugansk Peoples Republic and the upgraded relationship between them and Russia has finally established the defining border between one form of geopolitical approach and another, i.e. in general terms, between that of Eurasia and the western world.
The battle lines, so to speak, have now been formed without the ambiguity that went before. Western elite media and political spheres are naturally continuing the approach of before regarding Putin and the Russian form of governance and ramping up their rhetoric to what appears inevitably to reach new heights amounting to what John Pilger has called the return of raw propaganda. The dividing line between these systems is set then to become extremely well defined in the most strident of terms, at least in regard to that emanating from and within the western world.
How will this sharpening of the dividing lines between east and west be felt in economic and geopolitical terms? I would suggest that it will create an even greater rise in Russia's eastward expansion in terms of trade and alliances. In terms of Europe Russia will continue to do business there but in partial terms the present campaign of western elites is aimed precisely to reduce this. With the closure of NordStream 2 before it is even opened Russia will lose a significant amount of potential income for a year or so until the completion of the second major pipeline to China from Siberia presently under construction, 'The Power of Siberia 2'.
Events in Ukraine will have some knock on effects regarding Russia's trade with Europe, that is clear. However, most sanctions have been tried already and have failed to make a significant dent in the Russian economy. Taking Russia out of the SWIFT system of financial transfers has apparently been thought better of and rehashing sanctions on Russian banks is unlikely to create significant damage to Russia. Denying Russian banks the ability to convert rubles to dollars will mean they will simply convert to euros instead. It is hard to see what other powerful sanctions can be applied. Cultural exchange limitations and sanctions on more Russian individuals are unlikely to make the difference perhaps claimed for them.
As regards the geopolitical picture the situation in Ukraine appears to be solidifying Russia's resolve and that of Russians against the clear and constant pressure, including military pressure via NATO from the western elites. China will remain Russia's most stalwart ally, the most powerful state globally after the USA and destined to eclipse the USA in most respects before long. China and Russia together, in this time of enhanced clarity will certainly press on with their allies toward the multipolar world that many see as the ideal geopolitical system for our planet.
The USA, the UK and Europe without sufficient gas for its needs, appear destined to become increasingly weak in economic terms, social cohesion and global influence. In the face of a largely unified Russia and China and their allies the West appears to be heading for tough times indeed and this is, I am sure, one reason why it is being so relentlessly aggressive now.
The clarity of the times to come will scare many on both sides of the divide. No sane person wants war or the threat of war and the thought that war may erupt at any time is a frightening prospect indeed. I believe however that no side in this new divided world wishes or intends for war to feature to any degree at all. What will certainly continue unless one side wins the war of words and economic prowess or one side gives up trying in defeat, is that rhetoric and economic weapons will be more to the fore than ever.
Those who have been following events in Ukraine all along and in the geopolitical scene in the wider world on as deep a level as they can, and thus gaining insight and predictive opportunities will remain calm however. The great trading nations of this world will never relish war close to home, no matter how heightened the rhetorical atmosphere may be between nations and no matter how many benefits may accrue to their military industrial complexes, no matter how important these latter may be to their economies. The fight for survival of one view of how our world should be and the other will remain a war of words and diverse financial means.
We can remain assured that the fighting will not spread from the Donbass if the great powers have anything to do with it. Undoubtedly the West will do all it can to punish Russia for what it sees as an abuse of its power but which many others will see as fully justified. The situation will be a frantic one in the short term with far more heat than light within it but I am confident that what will ultimately emerge is a far more defined position of both power blocks, east and west and ultimately the rise of Eurasia eclipsing the belligerent, exceptionalist era of the West and its diminished power leading to a fully multipolar world.