WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA?

Western mainstream news is full of the incursion by Ukraine into Russia's Kursk region. They are reporting as if this is a huge success by Kiev. But what is the reality behind this western bias?

A large force of Ukrainian special forces along with a significant number of mercenaries have made an incursion into the Kursk region of Russia which borders on the sumy region of Ukraine. Virtually all news regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is focusing on this event currently. So what is going on there now, what exactly did the Ukrainians achieve with this, why did Russia allow it to happen and what possible goals do the Ukrainians have by mounting this operation?

What might the goals be for the Ukrainians doing this?

1. Due to the conflict going badly for the regime across every area of the Russian campaign, especially in the area adjacent to Avdeevka Kiev needed: 

a) a diversion for public relations purposes to convince western sponsors that they were still in the fight.

b) a way to lift sagging morale in the now increasingly poorly-trained and partly forced-conscript Ukrainian army that is b.ing steadily outgunned and out-maneuvered.

2. To target and capture the nuclear power plant at Kurskaya, the Kurskaya NPP.

3. To foment discontent in Russia against Vladimir Putin, the Russian government and Russia’s military high command in the hope that Russian enraged public sentiment would cause large protests and the overthrow of one or all three.

How did the Russians come to let this happen?

1. Was there negligence in not responding to warnings that there was a significant Ukrainian military build up in the adjacent Sumy region? Were warnings received and not acted upon? 

2. Were insufficient Russian forces stationed in the Kursk region for emergency situations such as this?

3. Did the Russian military remove the mines set near the border region with the intent to send Russian troops through in a proposed incursion into the  Ukrainian Sumy region which allowed the Ukrainians far easier access to mount their incursion?

4. Was such an operation by the Ukrainians given extremely low credence due to its being perceived as having no strategic, operational or tactical benefit for the Ukrainian in terms of the ultimate outcome of the conflict and therefore robust defensive measures were not considered necessary?

What did the Ukrainians achieve with this operation in the initial stages?

1. Initially, small groups of Ukrainian forces moved speedily to various locations in raid operations. They covered a wide range of areas up to 15 km into Russian territory. The number of troops in each group was small. The entire initial force was approximately 1,000 strong with a reported 2,000 more in reserve. The campaign appeared very successful initially as the reporting appeared to reflect the raiding troops taking villages under their control. This was inaccurate as the number of Ukrainian troops involved in each raiding party was too small to achieve this.

2. After the initial attack with these limited raiding party forces the slower advance of military hardware including some engineering equipment began to progress into the region. These will, in the main, not have reached the furthest areas reached by the fast-moving raiding parties.

3. A public relations coup was certainly achieved across the western world and to a more limited degree within the Russian Federation. Through appearing to take one village after another and what appeared to be a significant total number the objectives above of 1a and 1b were certainly achieved.

What is going on in the Kursk region of Russia now?

1. After the initial successes of the Ukrainians and associated mercenary forces Russia is now stabilizing the situation with the reinforcement of positions in each area where the opposition forces have arrived in force.

2. Despite opposing forces having spread a false alarm to Kursk region residents in the area beyond their current position to leave their homes due to danger and thus crowding some roads there, Russian defense forces continue to arrive in the as yet lightly occupied region.

3. Losses of the Ukrainians force are reportedly very high, amounting to around 1,000 troops/mercenaries, dead or wounded.

4. The way the battle for the Kursk region is going the trend can be very much characterized as a stabilization of the situation with Ukrainian forces stopped or slowed with resistance to them growing by the hour due to the arrival of Russian troops and armor and the work of Russian air power.

What is the likely outcome of this Ukrainian offensive and what time scale are we looking at?

The certain outcome will be the complete ejection of all opposition forces, whether Ukrainian army or mercenary groups from the Kursk region. This will be followed by a sanitary zone being created within the adjacent Ukrainian Sumy region by the Russian military. The Kiev regime will have lost in the ballpark of 2,000 troops most of whom will be their most highly trained special forces. This will leave the regime even weaker than the already parlous state it was in before this misguided and counter-productive operation.

As for the timescale for both of the above:

1. The bulk of opposition forces will likely be forced out of the Kursk region within the next three to five days.

2. A mopping up operation to clear any isolated opposition fighters will most likely take a few days longer.