WHAT MIGHT THE WORLD LOOK LIKE POST UKRAINE? (LEAVE WELL ALONE)
Isolation of one side from another suits both sides in this war and to quite a large extent.
Russia wants to keep her traditions free from western liberalism and excess while the USA wants to keep its economic and political fiefdom intact in Europe.
China is a middle case. Due to communist party control it maintains a good handle on how much western influence permeates through to its population.
Having essentially replaced western social media sites with its own (as Russia is beginning to do) China need not seek to build a "high wall" around itself. Russia appears ready to do so, I would think with the view that the wall, already half built, to be topped off relatively soon, will be a temporary fix, from which a number of "bricks" can be taken off at a later date.
Whether Russia will remain economically weaker in the long term and not simply in the short term is doubtful. One economic analysis sees Russia getting back to economic growth in 2024 with 2023 seeing a stabilising effect occurring, presaging that growth.
Later Russia is likely to make new inroads into Europe as the years pass and the results rather than the western expectations regarding Ukraine filter through the mass barrier of western mass media.
In any event and in general the West is losing the cache (or was it simply the fear factor?) for hefty and dynamic great power politics it once had. It is clearly in for a period of rapidly descending fortunes, first was the Covid hit and now the energy hit.
Who will get back in the starting gate first? Russia with its far smaller economy or the USA with its massive national debt? China already left the starting blocks almost one year ago having got its Covid problem isolated and under control and constant supervision along with proactive and fast reaction solutions to whatever situation exists or may transpire.
A different world is shaping out. Two almost entirely different viewpoints on the status quo and also on what constitutes an ideal society have reached a point where evolutionary pathways divide. The paths to here have intertwined to a certain extent and sometimes have even run in parallel. However now, there appears little doubt that two particularly strong nations (for different reasons) are striking out largely on their own. Will the West seek to chase, harangue, persecute and harass them still? I suspect so.
However, I strongly suspect that as these nations grow stronger together the shouts, screams, accusations and demands being made from the West will increasingly hardly be heard, bothered about and ultimately fade completely from their attention with an ever declining interest in what they might say, threaten or complain of.
Few efforts will be made by either side to kiss and make up, we can count on that at least. These two superpowers, for that is what they are (though one of of them (USA/UK/EU) is fading down to lesser, but still moderately powerful status) may agree eventually just to get along and not rub each other up the wrong way as much. Something the rest of the world will have good reason to celebrate.
They will eventually, after all the many chess moves, sanctions and accusations, decide ultimately, finally to leave well alone...