WHAT RUSSIAN MILITARY/DIPLOMATIC TACTICS MAY BE SEEN IN THE WEEK AHEAD?

With the devastating attacks upon two Ukrainian military bases near the Polish border recently the Russian military campaign has begun a new focus on the weaponry being brought through Ukraine's borders from the EU. 

Germany in the last few days has said it will attempt to transport such weapons "secretly". I would suggest the Russian military will likely deal with the situation of weapons infiltration by taking each major border post used for EU-Ukraine trade transports and block all secondary access routes wherever they exist.

Russia will clearly continue to target ammunition dumps and weapon storage facilities that already exist and no doubt take out any such facilities awaiting fresh deliveries.

In recent hours Russian Military Intelligence have confirmed they have the location data on all foreign mercenaries currently in Ukraine. If true then Russia's aerial monitoring systems must surely have a reasonably accurate picture of where EU and U.S. weapons are entering Ukraine and are likely over the next few days to demonstrate this.

It appears Mariupol will be in the hands of the Russian military very soon with all neo-Nazi militants either dead or having fled the city. With Mariupol taken this will deliver the entire region claimed by the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples Republics into the hands of their authorities leaving the Russian military free to take on tasks further West.

I would not expect either Kiev or Lviv to be taken though the relatively benign stranglehold, particularly over Kiev will almost certainly be tightened dependent on concession-making by the Ukrainian negotiating team. 

Weapon manufacturers in Ukraine received a warning in recent hours that they will be targeted in the future and warned employees to desist in their activities to avoid being killed. As further intransigence is displayed by the Ukrainian elite and its representatives so the number and scope of Russian aerial attacks will likely increase, to a large degree unhindered as the Ukrainian capacity to mount aerial attacks is extremely degraded at this point. However, ground to air heat-seeking missiles will remain a danger.

It is difficult to see by what device Ukraine can be totally de-nazified and de-militarised. Certainly both the neo-Nazi militants and the capacity of the Ukrainian army to fight has been severely degraded, yet to eliminate each and every one of their members, or even the majority seems a long and difficult task if it is possible at all.

I would foresee Russia taking a different tack within a week when in an even more superior position than now with the entire contingent of the Ukrainian army in the east having surrendered, been drastically reduced in numbers or having fled. At that point I expect the Ukrainian authorities to agree that Ukraine will write its neutrality in perpetuity into its constitution.

Russia, I expect to come to terms with the incomplete nature of its campaign regarding the de-nazification and de-militarisation of Ukraine by making it known that Russia takes the right due to its dominant position to police the further actions against the neo-Nazis in particular agreed by the present Ukrainian regime. I would further expect (if my thought processes are correct) that Russia would form a robust border force for both the Donbass and, if necessary, Crimea, with most troops falling back to these positions. Whether contingents would remain surrounding Kiev is uncertain. Sporadic attacks within Ukraine eradicating threats of various kinds would then be carried out over an extended period, progressing the de-nazification and de-militarisation of Ukraine from a supremely defensible base.

Some Russian units would stay for a protracted period around Kiev to ensuring no backsliding by the Ukrainian president and his government. The neutrality of Ukraine would be one indicator that Russian troops could stand down to some extent. Acknowledging that Crimea is now a part of the Russian Federation and that the new republics, soon to be members of the Russian Federation had the sovereign right to do this if they wished. 

I would further expect that both the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples Republics would join the Russian Federation as autonomous and sovereign entities before too long.

These are my various speculations and hypotheses. No doubt the future will look very different from them however these are my best guesses at this stage.