NATO's purpose is re-invigorated, and strengthened with the promise of Finnish and Swedish NATO membership. Whilst Germany is borrowing money to arm the Ukrainian and re-arm, the Swiss are sanctioning Russian institutions, and much of the EU (including the ex-Warsaw pact states) are pouring munitions and hard currency into Ukraine whilst housing their refugees.
The Russia army, navy and air force has been greatly humiliated, as the Oryx vehicle casualty list keeping expanding, the formerly fearsome VDV reduced to a punch line, westerners laugh at logistical problems, and more and more lost territory is being explained away by Russia's apologists as feints.
No amount of concern trolling over the Azov battalion is going to distract from the atrocities committed by invading Russia forces. Invading a eastern European state, committing actions that mirror the einsatzgruppen in Bucha, whilst advocating for cultural genocide looks more like Nazism to most. The only it isn't is if one exclusively looks at it through a post-colonialist lens, viewing Bucha as an extension of the legacies of Tsarist and Soviet colonialism. https://web.archive.org/web/20220404091828/https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html
It also is clear there is no western liberal totalitarianism. It is merely the big alternatives are just not that good. Russian ultra nationalism, for all its overly macho parades and recruitment adverts, can't even do a blitzkrieg against a smaller poorer neighbour. The central appeal of reactionary autocracies is their military prowess. Without that they are nothing...just ask Tsar Nicholas II. Meanwhile "socialism with Chinese characteristics" can't even made a decent vaccine (as the lockdowns show), is getting into a middle income trap (unlike South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) and is deeply dependent on exporting consumer goods to the west.
I'm afraid you have been grossly and continuously deceived by reading and watching western press and media William. NATO has been humiliated and will never recover. Finland and Sweden. Seriously? They won't make an ounce of difference and Finland has already said it won't have NATO bases on its soil. Turkey is throwing a spanner directly into the NATO works also. It is more disorganised than ever. Meanwhile western economies are going down the tubes. NATO will be one more expense they need like a hole in the head. On Russia's op you are being deceived there also. You should understand by now I would have thought that the entire panoply of western mainstream media has assumed the posture of war mode. In war mode you channel ONLY that which looks good for 'your side'. Russia is in fact no more than three weeks away from securing the Donbass. After that, if Zelensky does not agree to Russia's terms Russia will go further and with the best of Ukraine's troops either dead, imprisoned or having run away there will be little to stop the Russian military doing more or less whatever its high command wishes. Regarding Russia herself everything is looking extremely positive as the West has been taken out of the picture along with any vulnerabilities Russia had to it. The ruble has sky-rocketed and prices are stabilising with Russian-sources ingredients and products now all the thing. China and India will take the oil and gas the West doesn't want. Truly the sky is the limit for Russia. Meanwhile the West is heading for a LONG recession with inflation and stagflation playing their part alternately. Try weaning yourself off western mass media William. It's completely false and utterly one-sided where western interests are concerned. Oh, and watch Alexander Mercouris on YouTube for the inside info on what's REALLY going on in Ukraine. ;O)
NATO is humiliated because more states want to join it, but Russia isn't when the internet is awash with memes mocking their inept VDV? For all talk of Erodgan blocking Finnish and Swedish membership he still letting Ukraine by drones from his country that are destroying countless Russian armoured vehicles. He is an opportunist at the end of the day, not a friend of the Kemlin.
I can't help but be reminded of Noah Smith blog post on chaos climbers. Hatred of the international order, combined with desire to benefit from its collapse is what's causing many on the far right and far left to hope for a Russian victory, viewing Putin as a defender of white-Christian traditional culture and an enemy of US imperialism respectively glossing over anything that doesn't fit the narrative. Only if one has a burning hatred of the west can you not see this invasion as continuation of imperialism of the Tsars, GenSecs, and even Putin himself; the use of the "people's republics" in the Donbas as proxies mirrors exactly what he did with in Georgia setting up the puppet states of Abkhazia, South Ossetian and his continued support for Transnistria in Moldova. Putin's public denial of Ukrainian nationhood was a dead give away to this reality.
I'd recommend watching the Hungarian Youtuber Adam Something for coverage analysis of the Russian invasion (given his very accurate prediction of the first few weeks of the war) reading the Russian academic Kamil Galeev's twitter that go into great detail about the political military and social context behind the war dispelling myths of Russia military power, the actual economic structure, and the Russian state is inherently colonialist. Lazerpig and Spaghetti Kozak Media & Heavy Industries LLC also have made excellent videos on the topic (the latter is Ukrainian who is actually fighting in the war as I write). For more historical background I'd recommend TimeGhost History and The Cold War on Youtube. For general updates and understanding the Ukrainian point of view, r/Ukraine is good place to start.
US=bad isn't a good way of understanding the war. Understanding the dynamics of the Putin regime, Ukrainian history, Russian history and grasping some post-colonialist theory would be good place to start.
I suspect you would gain significantly from watching a BBC Newsnight programme concerning South Ossetia made immediately after what went on there. It is still on YouTube, titled 'What Really Happened in South Ossetia?) Here is the link to it: https://youtu.be/dwF_IODbh_Q It is a complex story but at least the BBC were willing to look at both sides at that time rather than the completely one-sided take that they still have the temerity to call "news" these days. By the way, they did display some true journalism just before things kicked off in the Donbass. Two very nice and informative little videos were made and published. They are well worth watching for insights into what the people near the Russian border thought at that time. Here is the first: 'The Shop on the Ukraine-Russia Border'. (14 March 2014) https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-26572569. The next is shorter and involves interviews with a few Donetsk miners by the BBC's Steve Rosenberg (when he was still willing to show both sides of the story): 'Ukraine crisis: Coal miners' thoughts on future'.10 April 2014) https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-26972708. On Turkey I have no illusions there. Erdogan is a sly old fox and will take what he can get before agreeing to let the Finns and Swedes have their dalliance with NATO. On Georgia perhaps listen to Professor John J. Mearsheimer (Prof. of 'Great Power Politics') who provides his view that Georgia thought its tiff with Russia which it engendered, would give it a kind of free pass into NATO and concludes that Saakashvili thought the western alliance would come running to his aid. Of course nothing of the sort happened. I would recommend Alexander Mercouris' latest video for insight into just how many times Putin (and Lavrov initially) went through the process of getting an agreement with Ukraine (or the West) that was broken. If Putin had wished to destroy the Ukrainian authorities hold over Ukraine he could have done it many times over. However, he did not. He waited and waited and waited always hoping successive presidents and authorities from 2014 to 2022 would live up to their promises. They never did, they refused peace and chose more war time after time after time. Alexander takes some time to go through these starting with a meeting between John Kerry and Lavrov in London in 2014: https://youtu.be/ylPpSWv-_Po The colonialist states of this world are the USA and UK and if you read my latest commentary you will clearly see I am no fan. The US elites made certain decisions immediately after 9/11 and it is my firm conviction that it is these, not any problem coming from Russia, China or any of the other US targets that is the enormous problem the world is facing today.
US=bad isn't a good way of understanding the war. Understanding the social and political dynamics of the Putin regime, Ukrainian history, Tsarist and Soviet history and grasping some post-colonialist theory would be good place to start.
The core problem facing the world is U.S. exceptionalism plus the concept of 'manifest destiny', mixed with what happened on 9/11 which supercharged an already existing belief in its 'perfect society' and a perceived duty to deliver this across the world (and in recent years whether it was welcome or not). Look at the 'Monroe Doctrine' and all else that followed from those very early days on up to the Seventies and Eighties where constant interference in Latin America was a constant. Through Vietnam on to the latest round of interference usually referred to as regime change wars of choice. If this is looked at for what it is then the conclusions are obvious (for those with eyes to see and ears to hear and who do not fall into the category of those who only ever see what they want to).
9/11 put rocket boosters under these attitudes and beliefs concerning having a God-given destiny to transform the world. Listen to John J. Mearsheimer on this in his best ever lecture imo, 'The Great Delusion'. Here: https://youtu.be/nZVIaXFN2lU
Given the recent Ukrainian success with its north eastern counteroffensive and liberation of Izyum, has your analysis of Russia's ability to win their invasion changed?
What war were you looking at?
NATO's purpose is re-invigorated, and strengthened with the promise of Finnish and Swedish NATO membership. Whilst Germany is borrowing money to arm the Ukrainian and re-arm, the Swiss are sanctioning Russian institutions, and much of the EU (including the ex-Warsaw pact states) are pouring munitions and hard currency into Ukraine whilst housing their refugees.
The Russia army, navy and air force has been greatly humiliated, as the Oryx vehicle casualty list keeping expanding, the formerly fearsome VDV reduced to a punch line, westerners laugh at logistical problems, and more and more lost territory is being explained away by Russia's apologists as feints.
No amount of concern trolling over the Azov battalion is going to distract from the atrocities committed by invading Russia forces. Invading a eastern European state, committing actions that mirror the einsatzgruppen in Bucha, whilst advocating for cultural genocide looks more like Nazism to most. The only it isn't is if one exclusively looks at it through a post-colonialist lens, viewing Bucha as an extension of the legacies of Tsarist and Soviet colonialism. https://web.archive.org/web/20220404091828/https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html
It also is clear there is no western liberal totalitarianism. It is merely the big alternatives are just not that good. Russian ultra nationalism, for all its overly macho parades and recruitment adverts, can't even do a blitzkrieg against a smaller poorer neighbour. The central appeal of reactionary autocracies is their military prowess. Without that they are nothing...just ask Tsar Nicholas II. Meanwhile "socialism with Chinese characteristics" can't even made a decent vaccine (as the lockdowns show), is getting into a middle income trap (unlike South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) and is deeply dependent on exporting consumer goods to the west.
As the people of r/NCD say; "cope and seethe".
I'm afraid you have been grossly and continuously deceived by reading and watching western press and media William. NATO has been humiliated and will never recover. Finland and Sweden. Seriously? They won't make an ounce of difference and Finland has already said it won't have NATO bases on its soil. Turkey is throwing a spanner directly into the NATO works also. It is more disorganised than ever. Meanwhile western economies are going down the tubes. NATO will be one more expense they need like a hole in the head. On Russia's op you are being deceived there also. You should understand by now I would have thought that the entire panoply of western mainstream media has assumed the posture of war mode. In war mode you channel ONLY that which looks good for 'your side'. Russia is in fact no more than three weeks away from securing the Donbass. After that, if Zelensky does not agree to Russia's terms Russia will go further and with the best of Ukraine's troops either dead, imprisoned or having run away there will be little to stop the Russian military doing more or less whatever its high command wishes. Regarding Russia herself everything is looking extremely positive as the West has been taken out of the picture along with any vulnerabilities Russia had to it. The ruble has sky-rocketed and prices are stabilising with Russian-sources ingredients and products now all the thing. China and India will take the oil and gas the West doesn't want. Truly the sky is the limit for Russia. Meanwhile the West is heading for a LONG recession with inflation and stagflation playing their part alternately. Try weaning yourself off western mass media William. It's completely false and utterly one-sided where western interests are concerned. Oh, and watch Alexander Mercouris on YouTube for the inside info on what's REALLY going on in Ukraine. ;O)
NATO is humiliated because more states want to join it, but Russia isn't when the internet is awash with memes mocking their inept VDV? For all talk of Erodgan blocking Finnish and Swedish membership he still letting Ukraine by drones from his country that are destroying countless Russian armoured vehicles. He is an opportunist at the end of the day, not a friend of the Kemlin.
I can't help but be reminded of Noah Smith blog post on chaos climbers. Hatred of the international order, combined with desire to benefit from its collapse is what's causing many on the far right and far left to hope for a Russian victory, viewing Putin as a defender of white-Christian traditional culture and an enemy of US imperialism respectively glossing over anything that doesn't fit the narrative. Only if one has a burning hatred of the west can you not see this invasion as continuation of imperialism of the Tsars, GenSecs, and even Putin himself; the use of the "people's republics" in the Donbas as proxies mirrors exactly what he did with in Georgia setting up the puppet states of Abkhazia, South Ossetian and his continued support for Transnistria in Moldova. Putin's public denial of Ukrainian nationhood was a dead give away to this reality.
I'd recommend watching the Hungarian Youtuber Adam Something for coverage analysis of the Russian invasion (given his very accurate prediction of the first few weeks of the war) reading the Russian academic Kamil Galeev's twitter that go into great detail about the political military and social context behind the war dispelling myths of Russia military power, the actual economic structure, and the Russian state is inherently colonialist. Lazerpig and Spaghetti Kozak Media & Heavy Industries LLC also have made excellent videos on the topic (the latter is Ukrainian who is actually fighting in the war as I write). For more historical background I'd recommend TimeGhost History and The Cold War on Youtube. For general updates and understanding the Ukrainian point of view, r/Ukraine is good place to start.
US=bad isn't a good way of understanding the war. Understanding the dynamics of the Putin regime, Ukrainian history, Russian history and grasping some post-colonialist theory would be good place to start.
I suspect you would gain significantly from watching a BBC Newsnight programme concerning South Ossetia made immediately after what went on there. It is still on YouTube, titled 'What Really Happened in South Ossetia?) Here is the link to it: https://youtu.be/dwF_IODbh_Q It is a complex story but at least the BBC were willing to look at both sides at that time rather than the completely one-sided take that they still have the temerity to call "news" these days. By the way, they did display some true journalism just before things kicked off in the Donbass. Two very nice and informative little videos were made and published. They are well worth watching for insights into what the people near the Russian border thought at that time. Here is the first: 'The Shop on the Ukraine-Russia Border'. (14 March 2014) https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-26572569. The next is shorter and involves interviews with a few Donetsk miners by the BBC's Steve Rosenberg (when he was still willing to show both sides of the story): 'Ukraine crisis: Coal miners' thoughts on future'.10 April 2014) https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-26972708. On Turkey I have no illusions there. Erdogan is a sly old fox and will take what he can get before agreeing to let the Finns and Swedes have their dalliance with NATO. On Georgia perhaps listen to Professor John J. Mearsheimer (Prof. of 'Great Power Politics') who provides his view that Georgia thought its tiff with Russia which it engendered, would give it a kind of free pass into NATO and concludes that Saakashvili thought the western alliance would come running to his aid. Of course nothing of the sort happened. I would recommend Alexander Mercouris' latest video for insight into just how many times Putin (and Lavrov initially) went through the process of getting an agreement with Ukraine (or the West) that was broken. If Putin had wished to destroy the Ukrainian authorities hold over Ukraine he could have done it many times over. However, he did not. He waited and waited and waited always hoping successive presidents and authorities from 2014 to 2022 would live up to their promises. They never did, they refused peace and chose more war time after time after time. Alexander takes some time to go through these starting with a meeting between John Kerry and Lavrov in London in 2014: https://youtu.be/ylPpSWv-_Po The colonialist states of this world are the USA and UK and if you read my latest commentary you will clearly see I am no fan. The US elites made certain decisions immediately after 9/11 and it is my firm conviction that it is these, not any problem coming from Russia, China or any of the other US targets that is the enormous problem the world is facing today.
US=bad isn't a good way of understanding the war. Understanding the social and political dynamics of the Putin regime, Ukrainian history, Tsarist and Soviet history and grasping some post-colonialist theory would be good place to start.
The core problem facing the world is U.S. exceptionalism plus the concept of 'manifest destiny', mixed with what happened on 9/11 which supercharged an already existing belief in its 'perfect society' and a perceived duty to deliver this across the world (and in recent years whether it was welcome or not). Look at the 'Monroe Doctrine' and all else that followed from those very early days on up to the Seventies and Eighties where constant interference in Latin America was a constant. Through Vietnam on to the latest round of interference usually referred to as regime change wars of choice. If this is looked at for what it is then the conclusions are obvious (for those with eyes to see and ears to hear and who do not fall into the category of those who only ever see what they want to).
9/11 put rocket boosters under these attitudes and beliefs concerning having a God-given destiny to transform the world. Listen to John J. Mearsheimer on this in his best ever lecture imo, 'The Great Delusion'. Here: https://youtu.be/nZVIaXFN2lU
Wagner Group is launching a coup against Putin. Revaluation time?
Finland has joined NATO. Care to revelated your positions?
Given the recent Ukrainian success with its north eastern counteroffensive and liberation of Izyum, has your analysis of Russia's ability to win their invasion changed?