Russia has already taken an area of land that by rule of thumb approximates the size of nations Hungary and Slovakia combined. It will take more, perhaps much more before the fighting ends. No matter what agreement is negotiated with what remains of the Ukrainian political hierarchy (or the political hierarchy of the USA if Ukraine no longer has one) Russia will not give up any of the land it has taken where Russian-speakers form the majority.
The question is will the Ukraine that is not part of LPR or DPR or part of a Russian protectorate such around places like Kharkiv be rebuilt? I am not convinced that there will be incentive to rebuild that which makes a nation state viable without infrastructure, land and/or towns that can manufacture local goods in a very short timespan.
If the figures on those Ukrainians killed and wounded are accurate 180-190,000 killed or wounded, they were also part of a labor force needed to rebuild towns and cities to make them liveable. Despite all the promises the west may make to rebuild countries decimated by war few —¯if any — have followed through. Baghdad still has parts that no one has touched in 20years. Fullujah? Still a ruin.
Afghanistan if not for Chinese longterm investment would have been forgotten by the west even though it was less than a year ago. It also irks the west that China has taken the opportunity to make inroads of trust to the Taliban by helping when they are cashless. The west thought that if they made the Taliban wait a year or two to starve them into western submission they would then call the shots. But they have done nothing to help rebuild highways or rail, The Chinese have there, but the Ukraine if they do help it will be tough negotiation.
The Poles may harbor dreams of rebuilding Ukraine close to the border but they are thinking land for agriculture. They are not going to rebuild towns and infrastructure without some form of payment upfront and which banks will do that?
The US will help? Hmmm, we will see. The US doesn’t deal well with cripples states or people I’’m afraid.
So a Ukrainian labor force that still wants to live their lives amid the psyche of having lost a war or if they got so severely wounded that they need the infrastructure before they can even start to think about rebuilding will pretty much languish in a stupor first and/or then move elsewhere in Europe.
Let’s face it the West is fickle when it comes taking responsibility. Cheers.
Ukraine will be smaller but if they keep their common senses together can have a good future with both Russia and the West as allies. I doubt if they will do this
Just need a way to get to a port eg Odessa for exports of grain etc.
Sadly and fortunately I will have no say and greedy or selfish politicians with great egos will decide
The question is will the Ukraine that is not part of LPR or DPR or part of a Russian protectorate such around places like Kharkiv be rebuilt? I am not convinced that there will be incentive to rebuild that which makes a nation state viable without infrastructure, land and/or towns that can manufacture local goods in a very short timespan.
If the figures on those Ukrainians killed and wounded are accurate 180-190,000 killed or wounded, they were also part of a labor force needed to rebuild towns and cities to make them liveable. Despite all the promises the west may make to rebuild countries decimated by war few —¯if any — have followed through. Baghdad still has parts that no one has touched in 20years. Fullujah? Still a ruin.
Afghanistan if not for Chinese longterm investment would have been forgotten by the west even though it was less than a year ago. It also irks the west that China has taken the opportunity to make inroads of trust to the Taliban by helping when they are cashless. The west thought that if they made the Taliban wait a year or two to starve them into western submission they would then call the shots. But they have done nothing to help rebuild highways or rail, The Chinese have there, but the Ukraine if they do help it will be tough negotiation.
The Poles may harbor dreams of rebuilding Ukraine close to the border but they are thinking land for agriculture. They are not going to rebuild towns and infrastructure without some form of payment upfront and which banks will do that?
The US will help? Hmmm, we will see. The US doesn’t deal well with cripples states or people I’’m afraid.
So a Ukrainian labor force that still wants to live their lives amid the psyche of having lost a war or if they got so severely wounded that they need the infrastructure before they can even start to think about rebuilding will pretty much languish in a stupor first and/or then move elsewhere in Europe.
Let’s face it the West is fickle when it comes taking responsibility. Cheers.
I think you have hit the future spot on.
Ukraine will be smaller but if they keep their common senses together can have a good future with both Russia and the West as allies. I doubt if they will do this
Just need a way to get to a port eg Odessa for exports of grain etc.
Sadly and fortunately I will have no say and greedy or selfish politicians with great egos will decide