RUNNING UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - 04.09.2022

Sep 04, 2022

Most recent item added:

Latest update from RYBAR battleground info site:

Offensive on Donbass: the situation in the east of Ukraine
by end September 4, 2022

▪️Russian forces hit concentrations of enemy manpower at Stukalovka , Shalygino , Esmani , Seredina-Budakh , Znob-Novgorodsky , and Krasnopolye in Sumy Oblast , as well as at Mikhailinskaya Sloboda , Chernihiv Oblast.

▪️Despite the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv direction that had not yet begun , the enemy stepped up the work of artillery:
➖Ukrainian formations shelled Kazachya Lopan , Udy , Sosnovka and Bolshie Prohody in the north of Kharkiv Oblast . In the Barvenkovsky direction , Izyum and Balakleya were subjected to massive shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine .
➖Ukrainian DRGs periodically enter the territory controlled by the RF Armed Forces. Enemy sniper groups are working not far from Oud .
➖The RF Armed Forces attacked the Kraken national battalion station in the Kievsky district of Kharkov .
➖Russian artillery and aviation worked on targets in the area of Stary Saltov, Andreevka, Dolina, Gusarovka, Slatino, Chuguev and Peremoga.

▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the capture of the village of Ozernoye on the northern bank of the Seversky Donets in the Slavic-Barvenkovsky direction . In fact, the sortie turned out to be a PR action: the enemy crossed the river in a small group and took a series of photographs in an empty village in the gray zone, after which they retreated to their original positions. Despite the formal control of the settlement by the allied forces, there is no stronghold in Ozerny, since any location there will be vulnerable due to the terrain: the village is located in a lowland.

▪️There are no significant changes in the front line in the Bakhmut (Artemovsky) direction .
➖In Soledar and Bakhmut , allied forces are engaged in positional battles on the outskirts.
➖Clashes continue in Kodem : Wagner PMC assault squads are pushing the enemy out on the western outskirts of the settlement.

▪️In the Donetsk direction, allied forces are fighting in the suburbs of the capital of the DPR.
➖Ukrainian formations once again fired at the settlements of the Donetsk agglomeration, there are wounded and dead among civilians.
➖Between Pesky and Pervomaisky , units of the People's Militia of the DPR are fighting for strongholds on the Donetsk ring road.
➖Allied forces are pushing the enemy back from the Mayorskaya railway station northwest of Gorlovka.

▪️In the Zaporozhye region , the parties are engaged in artillery duels along the entire line of contact. Russian artillerymen are striking at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Nikopol and Marganets on the northern bank of the Dnieper, from where the ZNPP is being shelled.

▪️In the Krivoy Rog direction , active battles continue for Vysokopole and Olgino . This morning, the Airborne Forces left Vysokopolye to avoid encirclement. At 16:00, Russian troops launched a counteroffensive and, according to preliminary information, managed to level the front line, returning the abandoned positions.

***

Mapping update for 04.09.2022 from Dima of the ‘Military Summary’ channel.

***

UKRAINE BATTLEFRONT ANALYSIS BY ALEXANDER MERCOURIS OF ‘THE DURAN’:

***

BRIAN BERLETIC OF THE NEW ATLAS

KHERSON OFFENSIVE: WHAT WENT WRONG?

August 30, 2022

Ukraine - A 'Counteroffensive' That Was Destined To Fail

Yesterday Ukraine launched some kind of offensive in the general Kherson region north of the Dnieper.

It is a bit early to speak of defeat as the Ukrainian attacks continue. The total strength of the Ukrainian side is probably two divisions worth which means some 30.000+ soldiers.

The losses of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers are therefore not yet significant. The fighting at the Donetsk front cost several hundred Ukrainian lives each day. But the relative high losses of tanks, IFVs and armoured vehicles are very notable. That equipment was enough for at least three to five full battalions.

The losses can be explained by the flat open steppe in the area. There are very few wooded or build up areas that would allow tanks to hide. It is ideal for the defending side as long range anti-tank missiles can pick off the tanks before they even know where the fire is coming from.

The Ukraine does not have many armoured vehicles left and has even difficulties to get more of them from the 'west'. The countries which still had Soviet equipment have already given most of it to the Ukraine.

The Ukraine has also brought reserves from Odessa to Kryvyi Rih (Russian: Krivoy Rog) to protect it from an eventual Russian attack should the offensive fail.

That will most likely be the case. I expect everything to be back to its previous position in a day or two. We may then see a Russian attempt to break through the thinned out Ukrainian lines in this or that other direction.

In yesterday's background briefing by the Pentagon the military doubt about this offensive was palpable:

Q: Hi. Thanks for this.
I'm wondering if -- [omitted], I know you can't give us any apparent details on this counteroffensive. You said there's been an uptick in fighting. Can you give us a sense how big of an uptick and is this fighting from both sides? Give us any sense of that you can.
...
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Okay, Lita, thank you.
So over the weekend, we saw a larger number of artillery fires primarily coming from the Ukrainians. And so, you know, I say "larger" I wouldn't -- I wouldn't exaggerate that but it's an increased amount of artillery that we've seen coming from the Ukrainians.
And then they have -- as you all know, for the past couple of weeks, they have been making some small advances in and around the Kherson pocket for a while. So I don't want to mislead you here and tell you that I don't think the offensive is underway. I -- I would just -- I'd refer you to the Ukrainians right now because we have seen some offensive action in that area for the past couple weeks.
And I'll pass it over to [omitted].
...
Q: Yeah, for the senior military official, so you say you really can't give us any particulars on this offensive. You see an uptick in fighting. You say go to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are saying this is a significant counteroffensive. So clearly, you're not willing to go that far, correct?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Tom, I’m just saying, I think the Ukrainians have a better way of telling you what they're doing than we do. I mean, even in the best case, you know, I'm getting my reporting from the Ukrainians. So…
Q: Well, are they telling you that it's a significant counteroffensive? Because that's kind of what they're saying publicly. Are you getting the same thing? And if -- if that's the case, why can't you tell us it's a -- a counteroffensive?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Well, I just don't -- I mean, listen, are they on the offensive? I think they are. Is this a counteroffensive? I don't know. And the reason I tell you that is because, as I said, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen them making some offensive moves in and around the Kherson pocket.
So listen, I'm -- you know, like you, I would love to have perfect information here. I think we'll get some more information over the course of the next 24 to 36 hours.
Q: Yeah, but again, it's frustrating for us because they're saying it's a big counteroffensive and what we hear -- see -- hear from you guys is, like, an uptick in fighting. Those two don't match, you see?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: No, I'm with you, Tom.
Q: Yeah.

To me this sounds like the military official is not at all convinced that this a serious offensive that makes sense.

That is likely because it does not make sense and is just another waste of lives.

It is Zelinski's attempt to prove to the 'west' and the local public that Ukraine can be successful and should receive continued support.

Four days ago the New York Times said that Zelenski was "under pressure" to launch the counteroffensive:

As the bloody artillery battle in Ukraine’s east settles into a stalemate, the war appears now to be a waiting game for a long-promised Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The timing for any move to break the deadlock has emerged as a pivotal strategic decision for Ukraine’s government.
...
The initial target of any counterattack is widely assumed to be Russian positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River. Move too soon, though, and the Ukrainian army may prove unready and insufficiently armed to ensure victory, military analysts say. Wait too long, and political backing in Europe may waver as energy prices soar.
Political pressure is mounting for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to make a move even as it remains unclear whether his military has amassed the necessary weaponry and manpower.
“The very difficult state of our economy, the constant risks of air and missile attacks and the general fatigue of the population from the difficulties of war will work against Ukraine” over time, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former minister of defense, wrote in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper. He said the military should be prepared to advance, rather than defend.
“It makes no sense to drag out the war for years and compete to see who will run out of resources first,” he wrote.

On the same day another NYT piece also dug into the issue:

The timing for any such attack has emerged as a pivotal decision for Ukraine’s government. Both sides are preparing for a protracted war, but Ukraine has greater incentive to try to avoid it with potentially risky maneuvers as early as this fall — before the rainy season turns the countryside into impassable bogs, or energy shortages and soaring costs undermine European support.
“An offensive is risky,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va., assessing Ukraine’s options.
“If it fails, the outcome could affect external support,’’ he said. “On the other hand, Kyiv likely sees this as a window of opportunity, beyond which lies the uncertainty of a protracted war against a Russian army that has had time to entrench.”
...
But several military analysts say there is a disconnect between Ukrainian civilian leaders, pressing for a major victory, and military leaders who want to ensure they have sufficient troops and combat power before conducting a major offensive.
...
“There’s a desire to show international partners that their support will enable Ukraine to win, not just hold on,” said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, who just returned from Ukraine. “And there is an expectation from the Ukrainian people they’ll be able to liberate their territory.”
But he cautioned, “a military offensive needs to be based on conditions on the battlefield,” not in the political arena.

In my view the offensive was launched at the wrong time and with too few troops along too many axes.

Two month ago the Ukrainians had already assembled a decent force in the Kherson area. It then started to loudly talk about the upcoming offensive. Instead it should have attacked immediately along one or two axes to make at least some gain.

After the loud talk the Russians reinforced their side in the area. At the same time they launched an offensive in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainians had to move some of the units prepared for the Kherson offensive to the Donetsk region to prevent a deeper Russian penetration into that frontline. Other units, waiting for the order to attack in the Kherson region, were mauled by Russian long range artillery strikes.

When its forces were assembled the Ukrainian military should have attacked immediately. The long wait made the situation more difficult. To break the reinforced Russian lines now would have taken more troops than were available.

I am sure that the Ukrainian military knew that this offensive would fail.

For political reasons Zelenski ordered them to launch it anyway. There are now another 1,000+ Ukrainian and Russian lives lost for nothing other then some sensational headlines and political optics.

Posted by b on August 30, 2022 at 14:15 UTC | Permalink

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (30082022)

As a result of the defeat of the offensive of the Ukrainian troops carried out on instructions of Zelensky in Mykolaiv-Krivoy Rog and other directions, the enemy suffered large-scale losses.

The effective actions of the Russian group of troops destroyed 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other armoured combat vehicles, 8 pickups with heavy machine guns and more than 1,200 Ukrainian servicemen during the day.

When repelling the enemy's offensive, Russian troops defeated units of the 128th separate mountain Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was transferred to participate in the operation from western Ukraine. Five servicemen of this brigade laid down their arms and surrendered.

The strikes of high-precision ground-based weapons in the area of the settlement of Alexandrovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, hit: a temporary deployment point and an ammunition depot of the 1st Tank Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. More than two hundred militants were killed, including about 40 foreign mercenaries, more than 20 armoured vehicles and a large number of artillery shells.

In the area of Konstantinovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, concentrated fire strikes were inflicted on the temporary deployment point of mercenaries from the Foreign Legion formation, as well as the command post of the nationalist Kraken formation. As a result of the strikes, more than a hundred militants were destroyed, as well as seven pieces of military equipment.

In the city of Krivoy Rog, Dnipropetrovsk region, high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed the production workshops of the Intervzryvprom plant, which produced explosives and other products for Ukrainian troops.

Strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery against military facilities on the territory of Ukraine continue.

During the day, five control points were hit, including the 108th and 65th mechanized brigades in the areas of the settlements of Vodiane of the Donetsk People's Republic and Veselyanka of the Zaporozhye region, the 35th and 36th brigades of the AFU marines in the area of Nikolaev, the nationalist formation in the city of Kharkov, as well as fifty-two artillery units, manpower and military equipment in 142 districts.

Three warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Sarny, Rivne region, Krivoy Rog, Dnipropetrovsk region and Vernopolye, Kharkiv region.

Two Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force were shot down by Russian air defense means in the area of the settlement of the Red Banner of the Mykolaiv region. Five unmanned aerial vehicles were also shot down in the areas of the settlements of Valeryanovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Chubarevka of the Zaporozhye region, Kapitolovka, Izyum and Krasnoe of the Kharkiv region. In addition, three Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles and 53 multiple rocket launchers were intercepted in the air in the districts of Kherson, Novaya Kakhovka, Kherson region, Antonovsky Bridge and Kakhovskaya HPP. Including: 44 – "HIMARS", five "Alder" and four "Hurricane".

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 278 aircraft, 148 helicopters, 1,837 unmanned aerial vehicles, 370 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,539 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 822 multiple rocket launchers, 3,357 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 5,136 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

Posted by: Summary | Aug 30 2022 14:32 utc

***

4 Sep, 2022 08:00

Better for Ukraine to ‘negotiate now’ – retired US general

Logistical shortfalls could force Kiev and NATO to change strategy, Mark T. Kimmitt warns in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.

Sustaining the conflict in Ukraine is becoming increasingly difficult for NATO, so Kiev must think about negotiating with Moscow, retired US Army brigadier general Mark T. Kimmitt has said in an opinion piece.

Washington’s latest military aid package to Kiev last month included “older and less advanced” systems, which “may indicate that battlefield consumption rates have outpaced production to a point where excess inventories provided to Ukraine are nearly exhausted,” Kimmitt pointed out in his article on Thursday.

Dealing with “dwindling stocks of leading-edge weapon systems” in NATO countries would likely mean a prolonged conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Such a scenario could result in “more pressure from supporting nations, sustained inflation, less heating gas, and falling popular support” in the West, he wrote.

Kimmitt, who served as assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs in 2008-09, suggested four ways to speed up the resolution of the conflict, which has now been underway for six months.

The first option is to “dig deeper” into NATO stockpiles and send arms to Kiev that have so far been withheld by members due to their own national defense requirements, the retired general suggested. That’s something EU countries may be willing to do as it’s “better to use these weapons in Kherson than Krakow,” he added.

The US and its European allies could also try ramping up production of the systems that are required by the Zelensky government, Kimmitt said, acknowledging that such a move would unlikely have an immediate effect on the situation on the ground.

The third option is “to step up the conflict” by providing Ukraine with longer-range systems, such as ATACM missiles, F-16 jets, and Patriots, and “broaden the rules of engagement to attack targets in Crimea and possibly Russia,” he wrote. However, the retired general warned that such escalation would definitely face a “response from Moscow” and create the risk of conflict spilling into Europe.

The final available solution, according to Kimmitt, is for Ukraine to “push for an interim diplomatic resolution without (or with) territorial concessions.”

“There is little incentive to negotiate” at the moment, but Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky “must recognize that diminishing resupplies would have a disastrous effect on his army, not merely for battlefield operations but for the message of declining outside support it would send to the people of Ukraine,” he insisted.

“Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later,” the retired general said.

The two sides haven’t sat down at the negotiating table since talks in Istanbul in late March. Moscow, which had initially been optimistic about the prospects for the peace process, later accused Kiev of backtracking on all the progress that had been achieved in Turkey and said it had lost all trust in the Ukrainian negotiators. Russian officials warned that Moscow’s demands would be more extensive if talks were to resume.