WILL RUSSIA DECLARE WAR ON UKRAINE?

You may recall that Russia issued a stern warning to Kiev that if it persisted in targeting locations within Russia it would in turn begin targeting control and decision-making centres within Ukraine. It has not done so until now as the Russian leadership has not declared war on Ukraine, contrary to what is perhaps the opinion of most regarding Russia’s actions since February 24th. The Russian leadership certainly does not categorise its actions in Ukraine as constituting a war.

This is not merely sophistry. As most insightful observers will confirm, Russia has not been conducting a full blown war against Ukraine despite the lurid tales that western mass media has regaled readers and viewers with since Russia’s campaign began. The Russian military has taken care to limit civilian casualties and significantly has not till now targeted vital infrastructure. If the U.S. approach in the Iraq war is compared with the situation in Ukraine the difference between the approaches can easily be seen.

Russia had many reasons to spare the lives of the civilian population in the Donbass region. The most important is of course the fact that the majority of civilians there are Russian-speaking and very much pro-Russia in outlook with strong loyalties to Russia on a generation to generation basis and very much enhanced by still strong memories of being liberated by the Red Army in world war two. However, Russia has no similar incentive to spare the lives of those Ukrainians who live in the west of Ukraine, especially not those who are virulently anti-Russian in outlook.

Even as described above Russian forces have not sought out Ukrainian civilians in western Ukraine as targets for attack, neither has the Russian high command ordered the destruction of vital infrastructure in western Ukraine. Electricity, gas and internet provision still operates as before as does much else that in these modern times comprises the basic essentials of life. In the same way Russia is not targeting the Ukrainian political elite or its decision and control centres. This is because Russia is not at war with Ukraine.

So, under what circumstances WOULD Russia begin to consider declaring war on Ukraine and opening up the prospect of targeting those locations currently off limits?

I visualise a time coming very soon when Russia will essentially have completed its current operation in Ukraine, i.e. the entire Donbass region and some outlying regions, possibly encompassing Odessa are in Russian hands. At that point I would foresee Russia ending its attacks upon targets within what is left of Ukraine and inviting the Ukrainian political elite to talks. At this point I consider two possible scenarios to be most likely:

1. The Ukrainian elite refuses the invitation and swears to fight on to eject the Russian occupiers from all Ukrainian land taken by them.

2. The Ukrainian elite accepts without any intention of agreeing to Russian terms but as was the case at Minsk in 2015 and in the negotiations at the start of the present conflict, merely as a way of buying time.

Of course a third scenario is possible but I do not think there is any possibility it will be realised. This is that Ukraine accepts the invitation and agrees Russia’s terms.

In scenarios 1. And 2. Ukraine will, with the backing of its western allies, fight on. In scenario 1., without delay. In scenario 2. After some months, perhaps many, in which it re-arms and re-establishes its forces. In both cases acts of violence against what by that time will undoubtedly be the Russian Federation, the republics and other regions having become part of Russia. These acts of violence will inevitably be of various kinds including subversion behind the new Russian lines and cross-border attacks. 

Recalling Russia’s threats against the Ukrainian political elites if they persisted in targeting locations within Russia, this is the scenario whereby the Russian leadership will have its hand forced into declaring war on Ukraine. At this point the number and type of targets in Ukraine will be expanded to include categories listed above, decision and control centres, vital infrastructure including internet access and much more. A full scale war waged against Ukraine is something that has not been seen to date and will devastate what is left of Ukraine.

Especially hard hit would be nodes of central command, including those where western and NATO expertise are located. All transport networks would be targeted, not just those suspected of transporting weapons. Storage depots of all types, not simply those having known association with the Ukrainian military. Electricity and gas infrastructure would become targets, the flow of gas flowing through Nord Stream 1 would certainly be cut off. As was talked of when the USA waged war against Iraq, a collapsing of vital infrastructure would be sought to almost take the country ‘back to the Stone Age’.

If Ukraine attempted to negotiate entry to NATO at any point after Russian announces the end of its special military operation this would also signal a possible declaration of war by Russia on Ukraine.

These are my forebodings on what may occur if the present desire of the western elites to urge the Ukrainian political leadership to fight on continues.

(Only a recognition by the Ukrainian people that an unwinnable war against Russia is in prospect resulting in a brave endeavour on their part to oust the present Ukrainian leadership and replace it with a Russia-neutral president and government can avoid this outcome I feel.)